When Elisabeth Kübler-Ross penned her 1973 bookOn Death and Dying- 这将五个阶段识别为拒绝，愤怒，讨价还价，抑郁和接受的五个阶段 - 她担心癌症患者及其所爱的人，而不是看着金融崩溃感染世界经济和流血数的震惊疲劳投资者的心理从他们的储蓄和投资组合中。
但悲伤，事实证明，无论丢失的东西如何，都伴随着相同的曲线。从2007年中期的次级信贷危机开始直到2008年秋天的金融卡的摇摆屋终于崩溃，大多数投资者都拒绝了。专家们现在说，他们一直知道该系统已经过度透彻，关于抵押贷款支持证券闻到的东西。但他们最初告诉自己，全球经济仍然是根本的声音，并且衰退应该达到这一点，可能是浅薄和短暂的。他们预计市场相应地反应。
白人一日思想之后是愤怒。它是针对前美联储首席艾伦绿色的每个人
来自世界各地的投资者被挥发性金融市场和快速发散的经济衰退，从7月以来一直以惊人的速度将资金涌入美国财政市场。价格在历史新高，收益率达到了新的低点。12月9日，为期四周的资金票据在拍卖中以零百分比销售。那同一天，在二级市场上短暂转化为期3个月的产量，导致一些经济学家警告，下一个伟大的投资泡沫可能在国库市场形成。
"Bubbles are always caused by cheap and ample credit. If so, then the next bubble will be in Big Government, since the Treasury is able to borrow huge sums at near-zero interest rates," independent economist and investment strategist Edward Yardeni warned in a December 15 letter to clients.
债务债务价格高，即使供应处于历史新高。美国政府一直发出前所未有的债务，以重组陷入困境的银行，购买非水证券堵塞信贷市场并刺激经济。但在这样做时，它冒着自己的债务失去了三重光泽的风险。这可能导致更高的借贷成本，这反过来可能导致更深层次的经济衰退甚至是抑郁症。“美国国债的暴力价格下跌的风险是一种真正的风险，即使这不是一个大的风险，即洛杉矶投资的史蒂夫Persky，联合创始人兼首席执行官，基于洛杉矶的对冲基金，洛杉矶的对冲基金，达到了8亿美元的管理层。
That would be disastrous, possibly leading to an Argentina-like default at the national level. In fact, the price of credit default swaps on Treasury debt has increased, indicating that investors are taking the possibility of a U.S. government default more seriously. The price of a CDS on a five-year Treasury note was 67 basis points on December 19, up from 6.8 basis points at the beginning of 2008. That’s higher than the cost of insuring other sovereign debt. A CDS on Japanese government debt is about 40 basis points, up from 20 basis points at the beginning of 2008. Insurance on French and German debt is cheaper than U.S. insurance as well.
Determined to revive a deeply troubled economy, the U.S. government has extended bailouts that could top $4 tril-
lion, according to Mustafa Chowdhury, head of U.S. rates strategy at Deutsche Bank. The Treasury has already spent $350 billion through the Troubled Asset Relief Program and an additional $48 billion on the purchase of mortgage-backed securities, he says. It could spend an additional $350 billion through TARP, a vehicle for buying up illiquid securities. The Federal Reserve is enmeshed in $3 trillion worth of bailouts for a critical list that runs the gamut from insurer American International Group to the market for commercial paper, Chowdhury says.
为了支持这些计划，财政部已以历史节目发出债务。根据Chowdhury的说法，市场的规模超过12个月，12个月内到12个月，达到6.4万亿美元。他表示，2009年市场可能会超过1万亿美元，因为奥巴马政府开始估计价值8500亿美元的财政刺激计划。“我们从未见过这样的东西。每个财政房价拍卖都是历史悠扬的规模，”Chowdhury说。
经济学的基本规律告诉我们产品的价格应该随着供应增加而下降。但是，财政市场并不是那种方式。财政部价格飙升得多，而朝着相反的方向发展，它们的收益率降至历史记录低供应量。例如，在12月24日，财政部拍卖了五年的T账单，历史低产1.54％，每年从3.65％下降。拍卖会提高了令人惊叹的280亿美元，2007年的可比拍卖的两倍。怎么样？在金融机构和全球经济衰退的信心崩溃已经强迫投资者寻找避风港的现金，而美国国债仍被视为终极避风港。"The U.S. government’s fiscal initiatives should be pushing Treasury yields higher. At the same time, there’s a global flight-to-quality trade, because the risk premium globally is increasing. In the tug of war between these two forces, so far the risk-premium trade is winning," Chowdhury says, adding that the current market dynamic is unsustainable.
那么，批评的问题是，美国财政部市场的健康能够持续多久？国债价格上涨看起来很像出现在住房和股票市场的气泡。最终，那些泡沫破裂，破坏市场价值和造成遍布全球的金融严重破坏。
Yet some say the Treasury market can avoid a similar fate: It’s backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government, which has the power to print money to pay off its debts. In normal times, that would be a recipe for inflation. It appears to be avoiding that problem for now, because other markets around the world have fared even worse than the U.S. has. The stock market in Shanghai has fallen more than 60 percent, Chowdhury notes. As long as the U.S. fares better, investors will favor dollar-denominated assets, and Treasuries in particular, keeping inflation low, according to Chowdhury.
“但一旦救助起到一个抛砖引玉的兴趣rates are going to rise" because of inflationary fears, Chowdhury explains. In fact, the yield curve already is steepening, a sign that investors have longer-term worries about inflation. The yield on the 30-year bond rose to 2.98 percent on January 5, up from a record low of 2.52 percent just three weeks earlier. If interest rates surge during 2009, they could flatten the economy just as it is struggling to get back on its feet, prolonging and deepening the recession. As bad as the downturn feels, the recovery might be worse.
span for keeping rates too low for too long, to Wall Street CEOs for tossing out false assurances, to short-sellers for betting that things would get worse. "People were seeing things they’ve never seen before, and they were trying to figure out the world, but they couldn’t," says Meir Statman, who teaches finance at Santa Clara University in California.讨价还价以救助人士的形式和信念，即政府的现金注入，基础设施支出和0％的利率实际上可能是船舶。This desperate clinging to hope for a quick turnaround led to a nausea-inducing rollercoaster ride in the stock markets in the last quarter of 2008 and sent the Chicago Board Options Exchange’s volatility index, known as the VIX or "fear gauge," which usually hovers in the teens and 20s, to well above 80.
但粗糙的是疲惫，很快被抑郁症取代。适用于目前的危机它看起来很像买家悔恨的案例，人们正在实现联邦政府的全面的财政义务，他们对此感到有点恶心。
Some people are stuck in depression, but Statman says most have moved on to acceptance. "People see that the money is gone and that it’s time to let go. They realize they are in this new world now, they’ve sustained this loss, and they’re saying, ‘I can’t let it dominate my life anymore, I have to find practical solutions.’"
As if on cue, the VIX index, which measures the cost of using options to insure against big drops in the Standard and Poor’s 500 index, dipped below 40 in early January. "There is a sense we’ve moved away from panic and into calm," says Statman. "The fundamentals aren’t better but I think there’s a feeling that all the shoes dropped, which really says that sometimes, just not having bad news is good news."