Macro 2009全欧洲研究团队

会计和估值

Sarah DeansJ.P. Morgan

second teamKenneth Lee & teamCiti

third teamDennis JullensUBS

Sarah DeansJ.P.摩根证券从第三名跨越式捕获她的第一个首先完成。7月，院长通知投资者，国际会计准则委员会面临极端的政治压力，以便重新分类一些受标志上市会计的金融工具;10月份，董事会同意允许重新分类后，院长公布了与允许银行推迟承认损失的风险的报告警告。“她在IASB上的工作是一个始终如一的高标准，”宣布一辆钱经理。Deans, 36, who earned a bachelor’s degree in mathematics from the University of Cambridge in 1994, worked as an accountant at Coopers & Lybrand in London and Zurich and then as an equity analyst at Lehman Brothers in London before joining J.P. Morgan in 2004. The Citi duo led byKenneth Leeslips to second place but continues to win praise for "knowing how to make valuation and accounting issues understandable and useful," according to one investor. Singled out for special recognition is the team’s October report, "Balance Sheet Brawn," which detailed an analytical framework for measuring the financial strength of industrial companies.Dennis Jullens那co-leader of last year’s No. 2 team, finishes third, and now works solo, following Stephen Cooper’s June departure from UBS for the IASB. The Amsterdam-based researcher, whose work is described by one fund manager as "highly informative and very timely," is lauded for a June report, "Pensions in Europe," which found that although European defined benefit plans offer fewer benefits than their U.S. counterparts, they are better funded.

经济学/开发欧洲市场

Stéphanedéo＆团队UBS

second teamErik Nielsen＆TeamGoldman Sachs

third teamDimosthenis-Alexios Patelis＆TeamBofA–Merrill Lynch

赛跑者Richard Reid, Michael Saunders & teamCiti;David Mackie & teamJ.P. Morgan;Elga Bartsch & teamMorgan Stanley;Bijal Shah & teamSocGen

Climbing one rung to claim top honors for the first time is the UBS quintet guided byStéphanedéo.描述,其成员由一个组合的人ager as "the best Western European economists around." Noting in September that "the housing market tends to be strongly affected by country-specific issues," the team examined data on home prices in ten nations and concluded that four — Ireland, the Netherlands, Spain and the U.K. — were experiencing housing market bubbles (prices exceeding fair value by more than 20 percent). Among the report’s many predictions: an imminent "sharp decline in house-building in the U.K." Last month Britain’s National House-Building Council reported that home construction starts plunged 56 percent year-over-year in 2008. A native of France, Déo, 40, worked as an economist at Goldman Sachs International in Paris and London before joining UBS in 2001. He earned a Ph.D. in finance from the École des Hautes Études Commerciales de Paris in 1994. Unranked last year, the Goldman Sachs International squad steered byErik Nielsencaptures second place. Nielsen — praised by one buy-side supporter for being "very direct and outspoken" — and his 15-member team published a report in June predicting the potential implosion of "systemic institutions" in the euro zone and noting that, despite the presence of a central bank and a single currency, bailouts or other responses would be handled on a country-by-country basis. NewcomerDimosthenis-Alexios Patelis指导美国Securies-Merrill Lynch团队的24人Banc，自2002年以来浮出水，第三次完成。投资者表示，团队的分析师“并不害怕说出他们的思想”，愿意“从人群中脱颖而出”。2007年12月，团队建议客户缩短美元，并通过期权延长日元，在越来越关注美国将陷入衰退。美元削弱了，日元加强，2月底延迟了8.3％的收益，当时该队撤回了该建议，因为它达到了目标。

Equity Strategy/Developed European Markets

Teun Draaisma.& teamMorgan Stanley

second teamAlbert Edwards, James MontierSocGen

third teamAndrew Garthwaite & team瑞士信贷

赛跑者Jonathan Stubbs & teamCiti;Mislav Matejka＆TeamJ.P. Morgan;Nicholas Nelson & teamUBS

Teun Draaisma.那38, leads Morgan Stanley’s team of six strategists to a second consecutive first-place finish. The analysts had been bullish on European equities since March 2003 but turned bearish in late 2007, warning clients in December that a nasty bear market was imminent and they should expect negative earnings growth and plummeting stock prices in 2008. Boy were they right. European stocks fell 40.9 percent last year in local currency terms. The researchers, praised by one investor for their ability to "distill complexity down to actionable recommendations with great consistency," remain bearish. Société Générale analystsJames MontierandAlbert Edwards那who debut in second place, earn plaudits from clients for their "nonconsensus" and "unconventional" thinking. Bearish on European equities since way back in 1997, because of a low-inflation economic environment, they turned uncharacteristically — and selectively — bullish in November, noting that European equities, which since 1927 had enjoyed an average price-earnings ratio of 16, now had an average P/E ratio of 12. Prices could still fall, they say, but companies with solid fundamentals and historically low P/E ratios present a virtually unprecedented buying opportunity. The Credit Suisse quartet guided byAndrew Garthwaiterepeats in third. Described by one money manager as producing "the most thought-out and thorough top-down research I have seen," the team published a well-received report in June that argued that "the more the central banks focused on inflation, the more deflation was a problem," Garthwaite says. After a flurry of interest rate cuts by Europe’s central banks in the fall, euro-zone consumer price growth slowed to an annualized rate of 1.6 percent in December, its lowest level in more than two years and less than half the 4 percent annualized rate recorded in June.

定量研究

Marco Dion & teamJ.P. Morgan

second teamInigo Fraser-Jenkins & teamNomura

third teamDavid Jessop & teamUBS

Unranked for the past five years, the J.P. Morgan Securities’ team, now a trio helmed by new leaderMarco Dion，弹射到顶部点。购买私人赞美本集团的“无义语方法”和研究，即“清晰，无需并发症”。特别感兴趣的是，9月份报告，“分析了夏季的量观和活动”，这表明，在7月和8月之间的相关性在同一部门内的股票之间的相关性飙升，表明宏观经济因素对投资者施加更大的影响’ decisions than individual company fundamentals. Dion, 32, earned a bachelor of science degree in finance from Hautes Études Commerciales in Brussels in 1998. The Belgium native, who worked as a senior trader at Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities in London before joining J.P. Morgan in May 2007, says he was "shocked" at news that his former employer stands accused of allegedly masterminding a $50 billion Ponzi scheme.Inigo Fraser-Jenkinssteers his 11-member team to a second-place finish for a third year running. The troupe, with Nomura International since October, when the firm acquired Lehman Brothers Holdings’ European equity and advisory units, provides "fresh ideas about quant equity modeling," according to one backer. Shortly after moving to Nomura, the team updated the multifactor stock selection model it had been using at Lehman, incorporating value and momentum into the mix, then back-tested it, using data from 1991 through 2007. The result: "54 percent of the stocks in the long portfolio outperformed the market, and 55 percent of stocks in the short portfolio underperformed the market every quarter." For a third straight year,David Jessop指导第三名的13强的UBS。客户赞扬团队的9月份报告，“较少的痛苦，更多的收获”，其中质疑投资者必须承担更多奖励的风险。分析了16年的数据，战略家得出结论，低波动性股票平均年度收益大约高于无风险率（即，美国国债）。

社会责任投资

Michael Tyrrell.& teamCiti

second teamClaudia Kruse＆TeamJ.P. Morgan

third teamSarah Forrest & teamGoldman Sachs

runner-upValéry Lucas-Leclin, Sarbjit Nahal & teamSocGen

Michael Tyrrell.37，据一款货币经理称，37岁，谁将双分析人士CITI团队带到了这一新部门的最高荣誉，是“非常善于识别新主题和趋势”。Clients also praise the team’s October report, "Climate Change: Tomorrow’s Problem? Or Part of the Solution?," which offered ways in which proposed infrastructure investing to rejuvenate European economies might incorporate environmentally friendly approaches, thereby boosting the profitability of companies that use "green technology." In late November, Citi discontinued coverage of SRI as a stand-alone sector. Tyrrell, who earned a master’s degree in environmental technology from London’s Imperial College of Science, Technology and Medicine in 1996, was an SRI analyst at HSBC Investment Bank before joining Citi in 2005. Debuting in second place is the J.P. Morgan Securities duo guided byClaudia Kruse. In May, 107 nations agreed to the final draft of the Convention on Cluster Munitions, which bans the use of cluster bombs; in early June the team published a well-received report identifying cluster-bomb and component manufacturers, to assist clients in making appropriate investment decisions. Kruse "is aware of the needs of her audience and produces work accordingly," says one loyalist. In December, J.P. Morgan disbanded its SRI team. The Goldman Sachs International quartet conducted bySarah Forrest持续生产,第三的位置。extensive and useful sector analysis," says one backer. Clients applaud the team’s annual SUSTAIN focus list, which highlights environmentally friendly companies best positioned to succeed over the long term. Although the analysts decline to disclose the companies on this year’s roster, previous lists have included U.S.-based breakfast-food producer Kellogg Co. and soft-drinks manufacturer PepsiCo and Swiss pharmaceuticals giant Roche Holding.

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