IMF信用在土耳其

对于一个认为它已经回到经济动荡的国家，目前的经济衰退是一个粗鲁的震惊。In the past year, Turkey’s economy has plunged even faster than it did during the financial crisis that devastated the country in 2001. Output fell by 13.8 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, exports have dropped by nearly a third, and unemployment has shot up to 13.6 percent. Among countries in Central and Eastern Europe, only the Baltic states and Ukraine have been hit harder.

然而Durmusýyilmaz，中央银行州长，在残骸中看到了有希望的迹象。他注意到，土耳其于2001年需要国际货币基金组织资助的大规模救助部门，享有相对强劲的健康。它们仍然有利可图，资本充分利用，不良贷款的百分比是单位数字，行业不需要任何政府补贴或注射资本，与许多欧洲国家的情况形成鲜明对比。由于银行的良好表现，“土耳其的康复将比我们的同龄国家更早地举行，”伊利马斯在南卡拉共和国办事处中央银行的最近采访中断言。

然而，许多实业家和金融家不共享这种乐观主义。COS¸坤鲁斯伊（CONON KUN Ulusoy）军事养老金基金奥马迪姆拉斯·克里姆（OYAK）KURUMU普鲁姆·乌鲁瓦斯（OYAK）或拥有该国最盈利的企业的OYAK，除非全球经济起飞，否则多年来，除非全球经济起飞。“如果世界经济并没有完全恢复，则无法保证一家强大的银行业，”他在伊斯坦布尔餐厅的最新午餐时说。与此同时，许多银行家怀疑有足够的经济活动来支持借款的重大增加。“我没有看到绿色射击，”荷兰银行土耳其分公司主席John McCarthy说，该国最大的外国银行之一。土耳其需求，大多数商业管理人员和银行家都同意的是与国际货币基金组织实施财政纪律，稳定经济并确保获取外国信贷的新协议。

那些电话为总理RECEP TayyipErdogğan的政府构成了困境。埃尔多奇·本文抵制了过去一年中的大部分时间，因为它将施加预算限制，这可能会绑架他的土耳其首字母股，Akp，于2011年的议会选举所称的裁决司法和发展党。这样一个move could also tarnish the AKP’s reputation for economic competence. The party, which took power in 2002, helped lead Turkey out of the previous crisis and ushered in a six-year boom, with growth averaging 6.5 percent a year, by enacting sweeping economic reforms and opening membership negotiations with the European Union. As late as October 2008, Erdog˘an gamely insisted that the worldwide crisis had “bypassed Turkey.”

但是，深度经济衰退已经涉及政府的受欢迎程度。选民支持AKP候选人在3月份的市级选举中跌至39％，下降了2007年国家议会选举的47％。“AKP已经失去了沾沾自喜欢，”伍德罗·威尔逊国际学者国际学者们的智者，华盛顿智库的思维坦克的土耳其政治分析师GülnurAybet说。

选举挫折促使Erdogğan改变钉子。5月，他订购了政府动摇，让他的外交部长阿里巴卡搬回经济部。Babacan举行了2002年至2007年的职位，并监督了政府改革计划，削减了预算赤字，并鼓励外商投资涌入。他还征税和养老金改革，作为国际货币基金组织的一部分是108亿美元的备用信贷协议，这是2008年到期的一项交易，在最新危机袭击之前不久。现在，银行家和经济学家希望从42岁的部长重复绩效。

“Babacan有一个很好的赛道记录。他是过去四十年中最有效的经济部长之一，所以商业界对他充满信心，“伊斯坦布尔·摩根大通公司的经济学家Yarkin Cebeci说。

巴巴詹加强了与国际货币基金组织官员ab谈判out a standby credit that could total as much as $45 billion, raising hopes for an accord. Erdog˘an himself fueled speculation in July when, after a meeting with IMF managing director Dominique Strauss-Kahn on the margins of the Group of Eight summit meeting in L’Aquila, Italy, he expressed hope that the two sides could reach agreement on a standby credit before the annual meeting of the IMF and the World Bank, which will take place in Istanbul in early October. But analysts say the government continues to balk at the kind of spending curbs that the IMF is demanding, restraints that Erdog˘an earlier this year termed “unacceptable.”

与此同时，Babacan搬到了Bolster收入，提高了烟草和石油产品的消费税，并徒步旅游为游客迎宾的高端餐厅增值税。他还承诺将政府初步的中期经济计划抵达，在2012年到2012年排除利息支付的主要预算。该计划的延误原本于今年夏天发表的计划，对政府的决心提出了疑虑。“自巴巴班的预约以来，几个月过去了，是时候迈出了伊斯坦布尔领先的投资银行的执行委员会成员，”Submet Sami迈出了几个月。

Compounding the government’s economic difficulties is the lack of progress in membership negotiations with the EU. Erdog˘an assumed power in 2002 determined to bring Turkey into the union and used that prospect to push through reforms ranging from the abolition of the death penalty to cracking down on corruption in government procurement to asserting civilian control over the military. Talks began with fanfare in 2005 and have been a major factor driving foreign investment in Turkey, but so far work has begun on only 11 of the 35 chapters — policy areas covering everything from competition to agriculture — needed to gain entry. France and Germany continue to oppose membership for Turkey because of its large Muslim population, even as the EU prepares to open fast-track membership talks with Iceland. Admitting Turkey would overextend the EU’s borders and mission, French President Nicolas Sarkozy said recently, adding that the bloc “must cease to dilute itself in endless enlargement.” Erdog˘an noted during a visit to Brussels in June, “There is indeed a discrimination there, and we are very saddened to see that.”

与此同时，埃尔多奇·安南的温和伊斯兰人和武装部队之间的紧张局势爆发了，这认为自己是现代土耳其世俗传统的监护人，并在过去的半个世纪上演了四个政变。7月份，56人 - 包括两名退休的将军 - 通过攻击政治家，报业编辑和法官的攻击挑衅军事政变的指控，以及阿卜杜拉总统签署立法，允许民间法院试图军事人员。

虽然过去一年的全球贸易崩溃已经崩溃了土耳其，但其许多经济困境都是本土。该国进入全球经济衰退，以6.75％的核心银行利率为16.75％，是在2001年危机后控制通货膨胀的遗产。“曾在2007年底已经开始收取国内信贷需求的损失，”伦敦经济学家奥海姆，萨克斯＆Co.的伦敦经济学家Ahmet Akarli表示，政府向市政当局推出了大量支出，以建立对当地的支持三月选举，致预算赤字大幅扩大。该国目前的账户赤字还爆炸为416亿美元，占GDP的5.7％，反映了国内强劲增长的年份，石油进口价格飙升。

So when global credit markets seized up last fall after the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings, Turkey suffered an especially harsh blow. The lira plunged by 27 percent against the dollar in just five weeks, and the economy shifted abruptly into reverse. The IMF predicts that for all of 2009 output will drop by 5.1 percent, a more dire estimate than the government’s forecast of a 3.6 percent decline. JPMorgan Chase expects foreign direct investment this year to be only a third of the record $21 billion in 2007.

尽管经济衰退的严重程度，但有一些令人鼓舞的迹象。进口陡峭的落叶结合较低的油价正在缩小当前账户赤字;JPMORGAN Chase的经济学家预测今年GDP的差距缩小为1.3％。这一下降已经消除了Lira的压力，因为今年中期的8月中旬几乎没有改变，在美元大约1.50到美元。Lira的稳定使中央银行使其基准利率削减了8.5个百分点，达到8.25％。“我们已经告诉市场，如果需要，中央银行可以采取一些进一步的措施，”总督伊利马斯说。与此同时，通货膨胀率仍以5.2％的速度延长，40年来。

火鸡is also benefiting from a revival of global risk appetite. The Istanbul Stock Exchange saw a rise of 63 percent between January and mid-August, second in the CEE region only to the Russian Trading System Stock Exchange, which recorded a 75 percent jump. Spreads on Turkish debt have also narrowed dramatically. The government sold $1.25 billion of eight-year bonds in July at a spread of 298 basis points over comparable U.S. Treasuries, down from 501.3 basis points on a January issue. The big questions for investors are whether the gains are being driven by expectations of an IMF accord and, if so, whether the revival of investor confidence will paradoxically embolden the government to eschew an agreement.

“政府认为，在过去的七年里，它在过去的七年里才能加强经济基础，”阿卡里说。“因此，无论全球条件如何，土耳其都需要较少的IMF的坚定信念。”

The government has few tools at its disposal to counter the sharp recession, though. Unlike China, with its massive monetary reserves, Turkey does not have many resources to stimulate the economy and combat unemployment. Although the government was able to cut the budget deficit to just 0.7 percent of GDP in 2006, that number edged up to 1.87 percent last year. Huge increases in spending since the beginning of the year led to a 5 percent deficit in May that is expected to reach 7 percent by the end of 2009, according to analysts at Eurasia Group, a New York–based risk consulting firm.

To finance the swelling deficit, the government is having to sell more bonds to the banks, crowding out credit available to businesses. That explains why industry is eager for the government to reach a new standby agreement with the IMF. “With the help of IMF funds, the Treasury will borrow less money from the market and leave more available for the private sector,” explains Fatma Melek, chief economist at Akbank, the country’s largest private sector bank.

Other bankers argue that an IMF agreement would be even more important as a confidence-building measure. It would signal to investors that the government accepts the need for fiscal discipline, and it could help bolster Turkey’s sovereign rating, which Standard & Poor’s and Fitch Ratings now put three notches below investment grade, at BB-. “No matter how good a company is, it is still stuck with the country’s rating,” says ING’s McCarthy. “So an IMF deal has an impact on the cost of funding for Turkish corporates and banks.”

But any such agreement would carry potentially severe political costs. It would require effective controls on Turkey’s municipal spending, currently the black hole in the government budget deficit, because municipalities have been allowed to spend with considerable independence yet with implicit Treasury guarantees. “This is where politicians deliver the aid and services that get them votes,” notes Goldman’s Akarli. “Losing control over the municipalities is a major concern for Prime Minister Erdog˘an.” The March election results stunned the AKP, which was defeated in 12 cities, including Siirt, the southeastern hometown of Erdog˘an’s wife, Emine. With much more at stake in the 2011 national elections, the prime minister is not moving to tighten purse strings.

另一个关键的国际货币基金组织需求 - 税收改革 - 也为AKP带来了困难。土耳其目前从间接税收的收入占60％以上，主要是增值税。随着消费者支出的经济衰退，收入已经下跌，有助于赤字的迅速增加。国际货币基金组织希望更加平衡的税收结构，从企业，特别是中小企业获得更大的收入。但这些家庭拥有的公司是AKP政府的主要业务选区。

不过，土耳其对其银行不需要国际货币基金组织的帮助，这是一个与2001年危机造成的欢迎鲜明对比。实际上，银行体系的实力是基于经济转型期望的最大因素之一。

The financial collapse at the start of this decade included a massive devaluation and a run on the banks that caused 31 of the nation’s 79 lenders to fail. Radical reforms and a $47 billion bailout have rebuilt the industry into a much healthier one. Turkish banks have created strong domestic deposit bases and reduced their dependence on foreign funding to less than 20 percent. They also boast an average capital-adequacy ratio of 18 percent, well in excess of the 8 percent minimum required under the Basel II accord. “Our regulatory agency, the Turkish Financial Authority, won’t allow any bank to open new branches if its ratio falls below 12 percent,” points out the central bank’s Yilmaz.

银行的净利润增长了32％，达到50亿美元（33亿美元），第一季度与同期相比同期相比，反映了更高的利益利润率。

Loan losses are nowhere near the problem levels of other CEE nations. Turkey continues to have low leverage; household debt is only 12 percent of GDP, compared with an average of 40 percent in CEE countries and 100 percent-plus in Western Europe. And in Turkey only 4 percent of consumer loans are linked to foreign currencies, in sharp contrast to the 50 percent-plus average for the CEE region.

总体而言，土耳其的无情贷款率在6月底处于可管理的4.6％，从预定水平为3.5％。根据伊利马斯的说法，即使NPL率上升到20％，银行的资本充足率也不会低于12％。平均而言，银行已预留储备，以覆盖80％的不良贷款，而领导银行则更高。“我们意识到已经在2007年底已经上升，并全部提供了我们所有的NPL组合，”Akbank的Melek说。Akbank是花旗集团拥有的20％的人，今年上半年净收入增加了8％，达到了131亿元。

尽管如此，银行仍然不能对经济衰退免疫。上个月，穆迪的投资者服务于15个土耳其银行中的14份，它涵盖了审查可能降级，称弱势经济“将继续对土耳其银行资产质量施加压力。”

许多分析师和投资者希望看到政府与国际货币基金组织达成备用协议的主要原因之一是确保土耳其银行和公司的充分流动性。2008年底，私营部门的外债达到1851亿美元，银行占590亿美元。根据JPMORGAN CHASE的说法，今年全年总计，今年716亿美元成熟，2010年的510亿美元。直到雷曼的崩溃，土耳其实体易于获得国际信贷;他们在2008年的前九个月借两倍于2008年偿还外国债务。但由于崩溃借款与偿还的比率，称为翻转比率，已跌至约90％。

Although their foreign borrowing has declined, Turkish companies and banks haven’t been squeezed as much as their counterparts in other CEE countries. What’s their secret? In the boom before the crisis, Turkish corporations built up huge war chests of unreported deposits in foreign accounts, and they have borrowed abroad using these deposits as collateral. “Unregistered inflows are large,” says JPMorgan Chase’s Cebeci. “And the Turkish government has been reluctant to engage in the fight against tax evasion.”

根据中央银行统计,之间end of November 2008 and the end of April 2009, unregistered inflows amounted to $18 billion. “These transactions were outside the capital accounts figures sent to us by the banks,” concedes Yilmaz, the central bank governor. “The banks don’t ask questions to individuals or businesses about where this money comes from.” He estimates that Turkish corporations still have about $30 billion in deposits abroad.

涉及这些外国账户的透明度缺乏一些分析师来质疑他们的可靠性。“这么大的未注册的流入总是存在危险 - 如果你不知道他们来自哪里 - 可能不会持续，”基于纽约的信用分析师Kristin Lindow说，他们覆盖了穆迪的土耳其。

虽然公司成功地滚过了债务，但较小的外国存款的较小企业正在经历困难。“银行继续贷给通常的嫌疑人 - 大型跨国公司和蓝筹股企业，”巴黎基于巴黎的信用分析师Goeksenin Karagoez说，标准普尔差饷地带。“但是银行对中小企业的贷款持谨慎态度。”

企业，无论他们的规模是什么，经济衰退都被困难。OYAK，军事养老基金和巨型商业集团，2008年从TL 27亿的TL 27亿，由于收入和更高的石油和商品价格下降，从TL 27亿左右看到其净收入下降。（本集团仅披露年度数字。）在Oyak最大的投资中，埃里格·LIDemirÇelik的股权略低于50％，或者为短火鸡最大的钢铁生产商的Erdemir。Erdemir’s net income dropped to Tl 211 million in 2008, from Tl 679 million in 2007. The company showed a Tl 137 million loss for the first quarter of 2009, compared with a Tl 219 million profit for the same period a year before, as domestic demand for steel plummeted, part of ten consecutive months — from August 2008 to May 2009 — of industrial contraction in the country.

中央银行指出，在2月份的2月份的历史记录下，较为同比的工业产业产业量减缓了23.8％至17.4％。制造能力已上涨，从3月份的64.7％到6月份至72.7％。总督伊利马斯在即将到来的经济转型的绿色拍摄指标中引用这些数字。但Oyak的uhusoy没有这种乐观。注意到，2009年上半年，与前一年相比，出口下跌32.8％，汽车产出在同一时期下降了39％，他说：“我认为这场风暴可能持续五年。”

To get through it, OYAK is focusing more on financial investments and cost efficiency. The sale of its OYAK Bank to ING in 2007 at the top of the market earned the pension fund $2.7 billion. Returns from financial funds managed exclusively for OYAK’s military membership have added a further $2.5 billion, for a total cash pile of $5.2 billion. Ulusoy plans to use part of that money to buy a coal mine and an iron ore mine for Erdemir’s steel plants later this year or next. Unable to do anything about lower demand for steel, Erdemir hopes these purchases ensure stable, reliable supplies of raw materials. “Erdemir’s profits were dropping even before the crisis because of higher prices for scarcer natural resources,” Ulusoy says. “And it’s just going to get tougher.” To further contain costs, the company got its unions to agree in May to accept a 35 percent pay cut for as long as the crisis lasts in return for a promise from management not to fire anybody.

土耳其失业已经达到了痛苦的比例。5月份官方率为13.6％，但实际数字可能更接近30％。严格的劳工规则导致了大型非正规经济的增长，许多土耳其人均致力于书籍。根据世界银行的说法，土耳其在181个国家的易于招聘和射击工人，良好的金砖国家 - 巴西，俄罗斯，印度和中国之间排名第138位 - 它渴望加入。“我们预计未来几个月的失业率将在下个月内在较高的几个月内继续，”世界银行的土耳其国家主任Ulrich Zachau说。

支持者说，这只是一个有利于国际货币基金组织协议的论据。“我们已经学到了一些教训，但旧习惯难以在困难时期难以追求，”伊利马斯说。“这就是为什么我们认为另一个国际货币基金组织计划带来的纪律和保证更重要，而不是它提供的金额。”

见相关文章，“抽样伊斯坦布尔的魅力“。