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Economics - 2009 All-Russia Research Team
Evgeny Gavrilenkov takes top honors for a second straight year — and for the third time in the past four years. Gavrilenkov, 54, "has been mostly right in his opinions over the last year," hails one backer. In October, after the collapse of the U.S.’s Lehman Brothers Holdings sparked chaos in global financial markets and falling oil prices threatened to wipe out Russia’s $91.2 billion current account surplus, the Troika Dialog economist predicted that the ruble, then at 30.39 against a euro-dollar basket of currencies, could lose up to 30 percent of its value.
Evgeny GavrilenkovTroika
second teamKatya MalofeevaRenaissance
third teamYaroslav LissovolikDeutsche
Evgeny Gavrilenkovtakes top honors for a second straight year — and for the third time in the past four years. Gavrilenkov, 54, "has been mostly right in his opinions over the last year," hails one backer. In October, after the collapse of the U.S.’s Lehman Brothers Holdings sparked chaos in global financial markets and falling oil prices threatened to wipe out Russia’s $91.2 billion current account surplus, the Troika Dialog economist predicted that the ruble, then at 30.39 against a euro-dollar basket of currencies, could lose up to 30 percent of its value. The ruble slid to 39.77 to the basket in January, a decline of 30.9 percent, and the government announced it would tighten its monetary policy to defend the ruble from further devaluation. Gavrilenkov says he is now "cautiously optimistic" on the economy, although dispirited that Russian infation is at out-of-control, double-digit levels. Climbing one rung to second place isKatya Malofeevaat Renaissance Capital, described by one portfolio manager as "a shrewd and careful analyst of the Russian scene for many years." In May 2008 Malofeeva warned that, despite the Kremlin’s stated concerns about rising inflation, it would wait too long to take action and "the rising cost of capital in an environment of rapidly growing energy and labor costs could have a very negative impact on the financial positions of Russian companies." She predicted that the inflation rate would rise to more than 10 percent year-over-year and remain at that level until at least mid-2009. Last year inflation reached 13.8 percent — the highest level in more than five years — and prices have risen 6.6 percent year-to-date through mid-May, according to Russian Information Agency Novosti.Yaroslav Lissovolikslides one notch to No. 3. In January the Deutsche Bank economist, lauded by one investor for offering "trenchant insights," predicted that consumer spending would rise in response to government efforts to stimulate the economy. He added discount-store operator Magnit to his model portfolio; by the end of April, the stock had skyrocketed 102.5 percent.