U.S. and China: Stop Fighting Over Currency

Long-time Asia hand and American businessman Merle Hinrichs, the chairman and chief executive officer of NASDAQ-listed Global Sources Ltd., knows how far China has to go to make itself a true superpower. He puts it simply in terms of the nation’s quest to make its currency a global currency.

“China has a long way to go before it can make the Renminbi a trade currency,” says Hinrichs, whose Hong Kong-based business-to-business company specializes in helping Western retailers source merchandise from Asian manufacturers. “First, you need to be able to buy and sell the currency, and you can’t do that so easily right now. But the major reason is simply there is no liquidity. I don’t expect to see the Renminbi replacing the U.S. dollar as a global reserve currency any time soon, certainly not in my lifetime.”

Hinrichs可能是68人，但他是一个健身性爱，可能会居住几十年来，足以看到美国仍然仍然是世界上主要的货币 - 至少是21世纪的最初几十年。如果Hinrichs是对的，美国官员就没有从中国担心了一些时间来。

Since the global crisis began, Chinese officials have increased their voice globally, expressing opinions with a harsh tone never heard before. China’s central bank governor started it all last year when he called for an end of the U.S. dollar supremacy. China then announced that it was aiming to turn Shanghai into a global financial center on par with New York by 2020. Chinese officials successfully pushed for the formation of the G20 and its ascension and replacement of the G8 as the global financial and economic ruling council overseeing the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. Recently in Copenhagen, they dug in their heels and refused an effort by developed nations to impose emission caps on developing nations, fueling anger in capitals including Washington, London and Paris.

Tensions are rising between Washington and Beijing. Complaining of the undervaluation of the RMB, which is pegged to the U.S. dollar, officials in Washington have imposed a slew of tariffs against Chinese imports in the past six months.

上个月，谷歌公司宣布，它可能会退出中国互联网搜索市场作为抗议中国审查，促使美国国务卿希拉里克林顿呼吁中国官员将中国伟大的防火墙拉下来对外国信息。上周，华盛顿通过宣布推出北京销售64亿美元的额外高级武器，这是北京认为是一个分体秀省的中国沿岸的一个民主的自由统治的岛屿。几十年来，五角大楼的将军考虑到中国海岸的台湾美国“航母”。中国官员报复说，他们将“惩罚”参与交易的美国公司。

这真的是两侧官员冷静下来的时候了。言论和萨伯嘎嘎作响的速度不起作用，紧张局势上升，如果留下螺旋螺旋失控，可能会破坏自2008年9月雷曼兄弟公司以来持续全球资本市场的全球合作精神。华盛顿的一些官员是calling for a “G2” meeting, a summit between just the U.S. and China, which would allow both sides to resolve their differences. So far, leaders in Beijing have been hesitant to participate in such a small grouping in which the weight of global leadership is put squarely on their shoulders.

也许，中国尚未准备好对全球领导的作用。它的30年的金融改革已经取得了失控的成功，但它的领导者仍然陷入了如何保持成功的关于如何保持成功的头脑。他们面临的挑战缩小贫富和贫困之间以及城市与贫困农村之间的挑战可能比美国面临的持续债务危机更加艰巨。

America has every right to concerned about what it sees to be an increasingly outspoken China. But I don’t believe America has to fear this new China, whose rulers are reliant on trade and economic growth for legitimacy. The key is to continue to push for dialog at the highest levels of government and not threaten to pull back, as Google is threatening to exit China.

I recently gave a luncheon speech in Beijing’s prestigious Capital Club, where more than a dozen chief executives of major Chinese companies sat in the audience. I asked them if they thought China’s success was a sure thing and whether they thought the 21st Century will automatically be “China’s century.” Not a single executive said “yes.”

Their collective answer: “We will grow and perhaps rival the U.S. in total size of GDP by 2040, but we’ll still lag far behind in per capita income. The 21st Century may not be the America’s century, but it won’t be the Chinese century either. We think America should just relax. We in China are still way, way behind.” China may pass Japan’s $5 trillion economy this year to become the world’s second largest, but it’s still just about a third of the U.S. GDP of $14 trillion.

Officials in Beijing and Washington should cool down and calm down. Rather than fighting, they should focus on cooperation and the fact that they have more to gain by working together: That is the only way to make the 21st Century every nations’ century.

Allen Cheng是该机构投资者亚亚博赞助欧冠洲局长。