刚刚多，多年前，中欧和东欧的银行正在盯着深渊。金融危机突然突然结束了十年的突破性增长，暴露了对海外流动性的危险依赖，以及威胁贷款违约飙升的广泛货币不匹配。A plunge in global trade had sent the region’s economies tumbling into the worst recession since the collapse of Communism in 1989. Bank executives and government officials feared that Western institutions, which control the bulk of CEE assets, might cut off funding for their Eastern subsidiaries to save their domestic businesses.
今天的银行家和政策制定者正在呼吸更容易。欧洲联盟协调的支持计划，欧洲联盟重建和发展以及国际货币基金组织等，其中包括770亿欧元（1020亿美元）进入政府库房和区域银行，掀起了广泛失败的威胁。全球复苏开始归入当地经济，尤其是依赖石油和其他商品出口的人。西部银行陷入了困境，相信长期增长前景超过了任何短期困难。
埃布德总统麦克斯·莫洛斯表示，前所未有的政策协调，被称为维也纳倡议，成功地抵消了陷入困境。“该地区没有主要银行运行，没有一个系统上重要的西部银行撤回，”他说（见下文）。
指出,世行首席经济学家埃里克·格罗夫that European banks play a much bigger role in CEE economies than U.S. and Japanese banks did in Asia before that region’s crisis a decade ago. “We wanted to reinforce a collective incentive for the banking sector to stay engaged,” Berglof tells Institutional Investor. “That’s a core difference and explains why we didn’t have the meltdown that we saw in so many countries in Asia” in the late 1990s.
Notwithstanding the success of the initiative, however, the region has a long way to go to ensure a sustained recovery, both for the banking sector and for the wider economy. The EBRD predicts that growth will average 3.3 percent across the 30 countries in which it operates, from Central Europe to Central Asia, compared with a decline of about 6 percent in 2009, but the rebound will be very uneven. Commodity-based economies, led by Russia, should see the strongest growth, while countries such as the Baltic states and Hungary face another year of contraction, albeit at a much reduced rate. Lending conditions remain very tight in most countries as banks struggle with rising levels of bad and doubtful debts. Economists at Raiffeisen International Bank-Holding forecast that lending will increase in the high single digits this year, a recovery from last year’s depressed levels but a far cry from growth rates of more than 40 percent in countries such as Bulgaria, Latvia and Ukraine during the boom years of 2003–’08.
“接下来的三到五年仍然是该地区金融机构的一个非常测试的时间，”伦敦研究咨询公司资本经济学集团的经济学家Neil Shearing说。“随着尘埃开始解决的风险，当家靠近家庭开始前来，西部银行将开始重新评估他们对东欧的暴露。”
但是，现在，贷方坚持认为他们无意从该地区拉回。“我们是长期投资者，我们希望留在那里，”奥地利Raiffeisen International，第三大银行在中欧和东欧资产的首席执行官Herbert Stepic说。上个月银行确认计划与其未上市的父母合并Raiffeisen ZentralbankÖsterreich，这是一个强调本集团对CEE地区承诺的举措。“我们绝对相信，东欧将比欧洲其他地区迅速摆脱危机，”普通话表示，该地区的生产力增长和吸引税率较快。
The crisis has underscored the mutual dependence between the economies, and the banking systems, of Western and Eastern Europe. Both areas saw economic activity and markets seize up after the failure of Lehman Brothers Holdings in September 2008. The following month Western European governments rushed to adopt bailout packages, including capital injections and loan guarantees, to shore up their banking systems, part of a coordinated effort by the Group of 20 to prevent a widespread financial collapse. The effort succeeded in the West but raised immediate fears in Central and Eastern Europe that the region could be cut adrift.
11月初，普通期聚集了五大西欧银行的顶级高管，在Raiffeisen的维也纳总部的CEE中积极参与CEE，以协调努力使政府支持该地区的支持。In January, Thomas Wieser, director-general for economic policy at Austria’s Finance Ministry and then–vice president of the EU’s Economic and Financial Committee, convened a meeting in Vienna of officials from EU and CEE Finance ministries and central banks, as well as representatives of the EBRD, the IMF and the World Bank. At a follow-up meeting in March at the Joint Vienna Institute, a body that teaches Eastern Europe about market economics, the officials ironed out the details of a support program during a tense five-hour meeting.
该协议正式被称为欧洲银行协调倡议，呼吁欧洲责任，世界银行和欧洲投资银行在股权注射，贷款和政治风险保险中提供额外的股票，贷款和政治风险保险，在中央和东部地区岸上搭载银行信贷流向中小型企业。在包括意大利的Unicredit Group和Intesa Sanpaolo，奥地利的奥斯特集团银行和Raiffeisen，法国的SociétéGénénérale和Skandinaviska和Skandinaviska enskilda Banken的17间银行 - 同意支持并在中欧和东欧的子公司提供支持和重组。这项协议至关重要，因为外国银行主导了CEE经济，在该地区大多数国家的60％到90％以上的银行资产之间。
除了来自多边银行的协助外，国际货币基金组织和欧盟还致力于匈牙利和罗马尼亚领导该地区的若干政府的520亿欧元。在一个单独但补充的举动中，欧盟各国同意加倍，达到500亿欧元，向欧盟成员支付支援设施，这是欧元区的一部分。“更大资金的可用性将使这些国家更容易抵御金融压力，”欧洲委员会负责人，监测财务发展的欧盟委员会负责人。
成立于1991年的EBRD，以帮助前共产主义国家向市场经济转型，致力于60亿欧元作为该倡议的份额，其中大部分资金作为西欧银行提供贷款。该银行还介入，帮助拯救在佐治亚州，哈萨克斯坦，拉脱维亚，俄罗斯和乌克兰的本土拥有的银行。在最突出的举动中，2009年4月，欧元兑日元支付了8400万欧元，为拉脱维亚第二大贷方Parex Bank的25％股权;政府在2008年努力偿还超过7亿欧元的混合物贷款时，政府在2008年举行了国有化的Parex。
世界上最大的开发银行EIB是维也纳主动的最大的支持者。The Luxembourg-based EU bank agreed to extend €11 billion in loans to CEE banks, with about three quarters of the funds going to institutions in the EU’s ten member states in the region, as well as Albania and Serbia, and the rest dedicated to lenders in Turkey.
The World Bank is chipping in €7.5 billion for the region’s banking industry, a figure that includes loans to the governments of Hungary, Latvia, Romania and Ukraine that are conditional on financial industry reforms such as the preparation of stress tests for banks and the strengthening of out-of-court debt restructuring proceedings. The World Bank’s private sector lending arm, the International Finance Corp., is contributing an additional €2 billion, much of it invested in the equity and debt of local lenders, in trade finance and in buying bad loans from banks.
Federico Ghizzoni是该地区的银行业务负责人的一部分，中欧和东欧拥有超过4,000个分支机构的Unicredit，这些贷款人中有超过4,000个分支机构。该银行已使用多达80％的资金，为企业提供贷款，并将其余部分置于基础设施和其他项目。“我们有便宜的资金，反过来我们必须给客户，”Ghizzoni解释道。“我们是一种支持当地经济的车辆。”
As significant as the initiative was, it hasn’t eliminated a credit crunch in the region. “The situation remains difficult,” says Marcis Dzelme, economics adviser at the Employers’ Confederation of Latvia. “On many occasions, financing conditions are tougher, and the money itself has been much more expensive. For the next two or three years, it will be a very slow recovery.”
国际货币基金组织和欧洲联盟共同履行的金钱旨在避免匈牙利，拉脱维亚和罗马尼亚的崩溃崩溃 - 属于27会员欧盟集团 - 以及塞尔维亚，可以加入欧盟2014年，并在波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那，潜在的会员候选人。另外，国际货币基金组织还授予救助套餐，包括亚美尼亚，白俄罗斯，格鲁吉亚和乌克兰在内的国家。
中欧和东欧的官员表示，维也纳的倡议阻止了他们面临更深层次的衰退。“它有助于重建对匈牙利经济的信心，并有助于承受危机，”匈牙利央行金融稳定部门负责人彼得塔布克说。
2008年11月，匈牙利从国际货币基金组织，欧盟和世界银行获得了€250亿欧元的贷款套餐，以防止违约债务。The country’s economy is expected to shrink by less than 1 percent this year after contracting 6.3 percent last year, the most since 1991. OTP, the largest commercial bank in Hungary, took a €1.4 billion government loan backed by the IMF and secured a €220 million subordinated credit from the EBRD as part of the Vienna Initiative. The bank appears to have ridden out the storm. OTP, the only locally owned bank among the country’s top ten lenders by assets, in March reported a return to profitability in the fourth quarter, compared with a loss in the same period in 2008, and predicted that it would increase lending by 5 percent this year as the region’s economies recover.
其他国家也远离金融崩溃的边缘。国际货币基金组织预计罗马尼亚在2009年至少遭受其遭受最严重的经济衰退，而GDP的下降率为7％，今年在出口复兴中将增长0.8％。但罗马尼亚央行官员表示，他们不会指望该地区迅速重新获得其预测投资者的信任。“那个所说的本能”从东部欧洲奔跑“已经消失，但这是否意味着这意味着投资者将以大量回归，”布加勒斯特国家罗马尼亚国家银行的首席经济学家Valentin Lazea说。“没有更多的恐惧，但信心现在只是开始成长。”
除了提供财政支持之外，欧元经织布和国际货币基金组织还在寻求帮助中欧和东欧经济体变得不那么容易受到未来的衰退。在3月下旬在雅典的维也纳倡议会议期间，官员决定采取措施提高贷款增长，并在竞标中促进国内资本市场，以减少CEE国家对外部融资的依赖。
多边机构也与该地区的政府合作，以规范外币贷款，这项实践从危机中脱离了堕落。这些贷款通常以欧元或瑞士法郎计价，近年来疯狂地流行，作为使企业和消费者能够避免高等国内利率和以西部的低利率借贷借贷。根据资本经济学的剪切，外币贷款占爱沙尼亚和拉脱维亚总贷款总额的大约90％，70％，保加利亚，匈牙利和罗马尼亚的50％以上。然而，危机造成许多当地货币急剧兑欧元急剧下降，使贷款偿还对消费者和公司来说更昂贵，并提高违约风险。到目前为止，匈牙利是解决问题的少数几个国家之一，将贷款增值天花板减少到欧元抵押和汽车贷款的60％，以及贷款贷款的45％，以适应其他外币的贷款。
一些西欧银行不等待监管机构采取行动。除了两年前的欧元抵押贷款外，Raiffeisen停止制作大多数外汇消费贷款。中欧和东欧资产的第五大贷方SociétéGénérale是通过运行客户偿还能力的压力测试来限制瑞士法郎和日元计价的信贷。“如果我们将以当地货币提供更多，我们需要拥有一个非常流畅和深度的市场，提供长期成熟的工具，”该地区银行业务负责人Jean-Didier Reigner说。“今天不存在。它将是不同监管机构的作用。“
银行家对贷款复兴持乐观态度。Reigner表示，从维也纳倡议获得大约9亿欧元的贷款，预计将看到今年年底的信贷需求。Unicredit旨在今年将中欧和东欧的贷款提高10％，但Ghizzoni说“此刻的需求非常低”。
The return of confidence, albeit tentative, has prompted Serbia to partly lift the obligation on foreign banks to maintain their exposure through 2011. Central bank governor Radovan Jelasic calls it an early test of the country’s exit strategy from the Vienna Initiative: “It’s an opportunity to see how banks are going to behave.”
在这里，CEE中的困境与大部分西部相似。虽然非凡的支持措施已加强银行并帮助恢复经济，但尚不清楚市场将如何在支持被撤回时票价。“没有特别的迹象表明我们需要推荐大量资金，”欧洲和中亚世界银行私营部门主任Gerardo Corrochano表示。但是，他补充说：“我不能排除可能性。”