The financial crisis has forced most investors to question their assumptions about markets and reconsider their strategies. For sovereign wealth funds, those shadowy juggernauts that once seemed impervious to market swings, the challenge has been particularly great.
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当君主资金在几年前爆发到公共场景时，他们大规模的购买力和缺乏透明度引起了许多西部首都的恐惧和不信任，官员担心政府可能会利用主权资金来实现政治而不是商业目标。然后，当危机爆发而西方银行绝望的资本时，主权资金突然发现自己为他们的深口袋和长期投资视野而闻名。其中一些更值得注意的交易：阿布扎比投资机构通过支付7.9亿美元的4.9亿美元的股权来拯救花旗集团救援;中国投资公司注入56亿美元进入摩根士丹利;和新加坡的淡马锡控股在美林林奇＆Co.，Barclays和Standard Chattered中制作了Chunky Investment。
These days, however, the formerly high-flying sovereign wealth funds have come back to earth. Many suffered losses on their big financial services investments. Others have been whipsawed by the same volatile market swings that have hammered countless institutional investors. And some — like the Kuwait Investment Authority, Ireland’s National Pensions Reserve Fund and Russia’s two funds, the Reserve and National Wealth funds — have been raided by their own treasuries to bail out troubled banks and companies in their domestic economies. Now many sovereign funds find themselves like most other institutional investors: struggling to scrape together profits in unpredictable markets and rethinking their appetite for risk as they restructure their portfolios.
“Many sovereign wealth funds are now asking themselves, ‘Does a strategy that was formulated in the precrisis environment still remain valid in a postcrisis world?’” says Ousmène Mandeng, head of public sector investment advisory at the $35.3 billion-in-assets Ashmore Investment Management in London. “That is not an easy question to answer. The short-term outlook is uncertain, and the medium-term view is likely to be a function of the short term if we slide back into another recession. Many institutions are still holding back a little until they have a better idea of what this new environment will look like.”
虽然特定资金的表现很难判断，因为很少披露他们的结果，但主权资金显然在危机中显然采取了一些大的命中。根据联合国贸易和发展会议发表的一份报告，由主权财富基金管理的资产从2009年底跌至2009年底，截至2009年底，从一年的一年以来，每年均为4万亿美元。这些数字最有可能低估资金的真正波动性。Deutsche银行的分析师估计，当全球市场坦克时，主权财富基金资产达到2009年初的低价约为3万亿美元。
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, established in 1976 to invest the Gulf emirate’s massive oil earnings, is the world’s largest sovereign wealth fund, with an estimated $627 billion in assets at the end of March, according to Institutional Investor’s first ranking of the World’s Biggest Sovereign Wealth Funds. Norway’s Government Pension Fund Global is the second-largest fund, with $461.5 billion in assets. The Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency, China Investment Corp. and Hong Kong Monetary Authority round out the top five (see2010 Sovereign Wealth Funds）。
主权财富基金中的新谨慎态度在金融部门最明显，资金成为其中一些最突出的投资 - 并记录了一些最臭名昭着的损失。一些主权财富基金从华尔街急剧下挫。据报道，Temasek销售其在美国银行公司的股份去年，损失估计为46亿美元。其他人已经拨回了他们的曝光更适合。至于新资金，这些资金抛弃了他们的挥霍方式。据监测集团，市场研究和咨询公司，2009年，主权财富基金在2009年的金融服务部门举行的28次交易中，总计为102亿美元，总计为2009年的金融服务部门。位于马萨诸塞州剑桥。遍布所有行业，监控集团履行的资金仅113次公开宣布的投资，总计688亿美元，2009年 - 下降于175次优惠，每年比较1200亿美元。对冲基金仍然能够吸引主权财富基金的利益，但私募股权，长期以来一直是主权人最受欢迎的游乐场，在危机中失去了大部分闪耀。
More broadly, several sovereign funds have been turning to passive strategies for more of their exposure and limiting active investing to areas where they believe they have a clear advantage or market view. The approach is one that Abu Dhabi’s former chief, Ahmed bin Zayed al-Nahyan — who was killed in a glider crash in Morocco in March — began to implement in 2007, raising the fund’s passive allocation to 60 percent from 45 percent.
This shift is far from uniform, and sovereign funds haven’t given up on risk entirely. But the new attitude represents a significant change from the precrisis years, when many sovereign funds boldly sought higher returns by ramping up their equity allocations, taking direct stakes in companies and seeking more arcane (and less liquid) investments in private equity and hedge funds.
“The crisis has left an indelible mark on sovereign wealth funds for the simple reason that all of the assumptions that went into managing those assets have been questioned dramatically,” says Andrew Rozanov, head of sovereign advisory at London-based fund-of-hedge-funds firm Permal Investment Management Services and the man who coined the term sovereign wealth fund. “Some funds discovered that they’d underestimated the amount of U.S. dollar liquidity that they needed to hold in their portfolios. Others realized that they’d miscalculated the risk tolerance of the general public, which didn’t fully understand and appreciate their long-term investment horizons. And many of those funds that were trying to emulate some version of the Yale endowment model were disappointed — and may now be taking a long, hard look at its key tenets.”
In Norway the Finance Ministry demanded that Norges Bank Investment Management, the central bank arm that oversees Norway’s giant pension fund, submit to an external review of its active-management program. Other sovereign investors have kept internal debates about investment strategy private, but there is little doubt among asset managers who work closely with sovereign investors that such debates are raging widely.
迫切需要解决组合strate之外gy, several sovereign wealth fund investors have faced political demands on their capital. Under a government-ordered rescue plan, the Kuwait Investment Authority in January 2009 took a 16 percent stake in the struggling Gulf Bank to help the company raise 375 million dinars ($1.3 billion) in emergency funding, and it injected about 400 million dinars into a dedicated fund to support the local stock market in the first four months of that year. Abu Dhabi has had to bail out its troubled fellow emirate, Dubai, pumping in an estimated $10 billion in emergency funding since last year. That funding has dramatically reduced the amount of oil revenue available to ADIA.
在俄罗斯，政府利用国家财富基金，一个旨在为后代投资的游泳池，以支持国内股市在危机的高峰期。它还删除了储备基金，以帮助弥补预算短缺，目的是它的目的。俄罗斯政府还开始将碳氢化合物收入转移到预算，这一举措可以旨在旨在旨在旨在扼杀其主权财富资本的资本。
在那些现金排水沟之后，主权财富基金现在面临的问题，没有明确的治理指导，定义他们的资金如何部署，他们的复杂负债可能是艰难的，如果不是不可能的，可以模拟和管理。这种脆弱性提高了一些投资团队更加谨慎。“我所看到的主权财富的最大风险是政治风险，而不是更广泛的宏观经济不确定性的风险，”加利福尼亚州欧文基金会基金基金基金基金替代资产管理基金会的联合创始人Judith Posnikoff说公司，与许多主权基金合作。“如果全球经济复苏继续缓慢，世界的某些地区可能会认为需要突袭这些基金。”
主权资金面临的挑战可能成倍增加，但这些投资者仍然是具有令人羡慕的长期前景的有力力量。德意志银行的说法，主权财富基金控制全球市场投资的所有机构资金的3％，他们可能享有石油和其他商品收入的强劲流入，并在出口收入复苏。法兰克福德意志银行研究总监Steffen Kern，主权财富基金资产的项目将超过2020年，达到2020美元的10万亿美元。斯蒂芬·肯·詹森，他担任全球货币战略师的主权财富基金的崛起对于摩根士丹利，现在作为伦敦对冲基金公司Bluegold Capital Management的宏观经济和货币负责人，主权基金资产可能会达到2015年的10.9万亿美元。
主权财富基金也面临着更加良性的政治环境，减少了外国反对投资的前景。这里的一个关键因素是2008年通过了普遍接受的原则和实践，被称为他们起草的城市之后的圣地亚哥原则。这些原则呼吁资金有明确的治理和投资指导方针，遵循经济标准，并遵守他们投资的国家的监管要求，随后在国际货币基金组织的主持下的26个国家之间进行谈判。虽然一些评论家将自愿指南视为无牙的准则，但原则为更好的披露提供了一个框架，并帮助避免了西方政治家的恐惧。随后建立了国际主权财富基金论坛，其中在5月在悉尼的悉尼的会议上汇集了22个主权资金和六个受援国的官员的高级管理人员，通过创造一个对话的永久大道进一步缓解了紧张局势。
当他们试图调整自己的风险偏好,sovereign funds are well positioned to take advantage of market opportunities, says Mohamed El-Erian, CEO and co-CIO of Pacific Investment Management Co. in Newport Beach, California. “Virtually everybody was caught offside by the financial crisis,” he says. “The question is, How quickly do people emerge from damage-containment mode and start looking forward? I see that as a function of two attributes: an investor’s initial conditions and mind-set. For us sovereign wealth funds score highly on both. They are long-term, patient investors, with surplus capital — and they are trying to figure out how they need to be positioned for the next ten to 20 years.”
最引人注目的,可见soverei的例子gn wealth fund positioning itself for future growth while doing postcrisis damage control can be found within the halls of Norges Bank Investment Management in Oslo. Norway’s Government Pension Fund Global, as it is known, is the second-largest sovereign fund in the world, with $462 billion in assets, after Abu Dhabi’s ADIA, but the similarities end with size. Unlike ADIA, which is notoriously secretive and inaccessible, NBIM is transparent about its strategy, which has long relied on passive indexing.
在2008年1月接任首席执行官的ygve slyngstad的领导下，Nbim在危机的厚度厚实地探讨了其投资组合策略的重大改革。Slyngstad希望通过在个别公司中乘坐更大的赌注，从以前的最高限额增加5％，增加新出现的市场，并对全球投资部门和货币的赌注增加，增加了额外的赌注。Norway’s Finance Ministry approved the new strategy and parliament ratified it in June 2008. The fund, which had been building up its equity holdings since the summer of 2007, lifted its allocation to 60 percent from 40 percent only to be hit by the chaos that followed the September 2008 bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers Holdings.
截至2008年底，该基金下跌23.3％，其14年历史上最严重的损失。该基金对其美国银行股市的持股大幅下挫;由于基金对欧洲金融机构发布的美国抵押贷款支持证券和债券的接触，固定收入没有更好。更糟糕的是，主动管理计划并没有表现，因为Slyngstad希望，相对于基金的定制基准投资组合贡献了3.4个百分点的负数超额回报。但同意了与财政部的战略，Slyngstad和他的团队留下了它。
“由于整个基金的治理结构，我们能够在金融危机中间进行如此重大的举措，”Slyngstad说。在股价下跌后，在2008年底将基金的分配降低到50％，他和他的团队于2009年第一季度购买了股票 - 以郁闷的价格持续 - 返回60％的目标。“我们有一个30岁的地平线，所以可以更多地解释我们不重新平衡的挑战，”他解释道。“我们不仅仅是这么说，我们这次忘了规则，因为这次是不同的。”
根据Gary Smith，伦敦BNP Paribas Investment合作伙伴的Gary Smith，据英军史密斯，担任主权财富基金，纳维姆财富基金突出了。NBim的许多同行都没有努力重新平衡他们的投资组合，即使股票市场暴跌。“他们允许市场力量改变他们的资产拨款，”史密斯说。
Smith blames the sudden paralysis at most sovereign funds on their political masters, who recoiled at the scale of the equity losses suffered in the crisis. By contrast, he says, NBIM had done such a good job of selling its asset-allocation strategy to the Finance Ministry before the crisis that politicians didn’t second-guess Slyngstad. The ministry was more intent on understanding the contribution that active management had made to the fund’s losses. By August 2009 the ministry had launched an external review of the new strategy, and by the time the report was published, in December 2009, the fund was already well on its way to recovery. Norway’s fund posted a record return of 25.6 percent in 2009, 4.1 percentage points higher than its benchmark portfolio. This year the fund rose 3.9 percent in the first quarter, but widespread declines in global equity markets caused the fund to lose 5.4 percent in the second quarter.
The pros and cons of active management have been on the minds of all institutional investors, especially sovereigns. Before the crisis many large institutions assumed that active management was the best way to invest virtually all their assets, says John Nugée, London-based head of the official institutions group at Boston’s State Street Global Advisors. Now that approach has begun to shift, he says. Many sovereign investors are assuming that passive management is a good place to start when entering a new or unfamiliar asset class.
“Passive management ties in with increasing asset-class diversification too,” Nugée says, “because if you have a presumption of managing slightly more of your assets passively, you preserve that part of the risk budget — that portion of the volatility that would have gone into actively managing a portfolio — and you make it available to move into other, new asset classes in a passive way.”
The distinctions now being made between active and passive management are part of a more fundamental shift in institutional portfolio strategy, and one that some sovereign funds are at the forefront of. Many fund managers are now reviewing their portfolios by looking at the underlying risks inherent in certain asset classes. A fund putting money into private equity, for example, is effectively taking on illiquidity risk and certain macroeconomic risks, such as inflation. Most managers ignored those perils during the boom years, if they were even aware of them at all, but the crisis demonstrated how broad, systemic risks could affect seemingly diversified investments in a similar way.
Prompted in part by the review of its active-management program, NBIM has begun to focus more closely on systemic risks and integrate those assessments into its portfolio strategy. And rather than concentrating only on the potential negatives of those risks, Slyngstad says, he and his team are using risk factors to size up possible opportunities. Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis is a case in point. The Norwegian fund went into the crisis significantly underweight the government bonds of many southern European countries, he says. His team has taken advantage of the recent turmoil to increase that weighting, buying bonds at depressed levels and getting a hefty yield premium for taking on the credit risk. “We are now looking at these events as opportunities rather than as the scary things you have to avoid,” Slyngstad says.
Even as they refine their approach to risk, sovereign wealth funds continue to show an appetite for big, high-profile investments. In August 2009, Qatar Holding, an arm of the Qatar Investment Authority that makes direct investments, bought 10 percent of Germany’s Porsche Automobil Holding for a reported $9.98 billion. In May of this year, Qatar Holding splashed out again and bought fabled London department store Harrods for a reported £1.5 billion ($2.3 billion).
其他基金表明对商品和基础设施的兴趣。2009年7月，中国投资公司报告称，加拿大最大的采矿和冶金公司的Teck Resources股权为17.4亿美元（15亿美元）。据报道，上个月，据报道，阿迪亚同意与摩根斯坦利和U.K.私募股权集团3i集团竞标，竞标与渠道隧道联系起来的高速铁路。
Such prominent investments are bound to attract closer scrutiny, especially given the fact that many sovereign funds give limited information about their strategy and often fail to disclose the amount of funds they manage. The Santiago Principles have helped ease political concerns; but Sven Behrendt, a visiting scholar with the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut, contends that only four of the 26 funds that signed up to the agreement — the Australian Future Fund, Ireland’s National Pensions Reserve Fund, Norway’s Government Pension Fund Global and the New Zealand Superannuation Fund — comply fully with the principles.
主权财富基金将有足够的机会在未来的几年里展示他们的手。他们的口袋很深，而且增长，他们仍然比大多数机构投资者更长的时间。亚博赞助欧冠
“We will see greater differentiation among institutions as their needs start to diverge,” says Ashmore’s Mandeng. “Pension funds will come under greater redemption demands and will need to be in redeemable assets. Sovereign wealth funds, however, are still likely to have more latitude — and may well prove to be the only true long-term investors left standing.”