2010年拉丁美洲研究团队：地区的市场给出了混合信息

拉丁美洲股市去年下半年举办的，这在今年的困境很大程度上。MSCI的新兴市场拉丁美洲指数从2009年12月获得了27.1％，只能通过7月份下降1.1％至今。全球对该地区的全部重要商品和欧洲发达市场的恐惧的需求下降，在欧洲和美国发达的市场上拖累了拉丁美洲市场的拖累，因为投资者继续担心未来会带来什么。

“Global uncertainties have taken center stage, especially concerns about the impact of a Chinese slowdown on commodity demand, sovereign stresses in Europe and recent signs of slower growth in the U.S.,” observes Ben Laidler, New York–based head of Latin American equity research at J.P. Morgan. (See “The New World Trumps the Old”.)

Pedro Martins Jr.副主任，拉美州普通州圣保罗州Bofa Merrill Lynch全球研究副主任，同意。“这是去年下半年的前置反弹，然后在今年上半年的负面回报，”他说。“投资者预计未来全球经济放缓的风险，并在拉丁美洲的股权暴露减少。”

Domestic moves are also making investors nervous. Earlier this year many local governments began tightening the loose monetary policies they enacted in response to the global meltdown. For instance, Brazil’s central bank left its key overnight lending rate unchanged at the historic low of 8.75 percent from July 2009 through April; since then the rate has been increased three times, to 10.75 percent, and economists expect an additional rate hike this month.

All of these factors have led to investors’ “feeling like they are on shaky ground,” Martins says, and being eager for research that can help them find their footing. Two firms outpace all others when it comes to providing the kind of insight that money managers consider most useful: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research and J.P. Morgan, which share top honors in the2010年拉丁美洲研究团队, Institutional Investor’s 18th annual ranking of the region’s best analyst teams. BofA jumps from third place to No. 1, while J.P. Morgan repeats in first place. The firms capture 14 total team positions each: BofA, one more than last year; J.P. Morgan, one fewer.

两个衣服第三名，每个职位12个职位：瑞士信贷，在失去两个职位后滑倒一个档次，摩根士丹利 - 年的最大奖金 - 在拿起四个职位后从第6号跳跃。四分之一的五分之一是Itaú证券，从第七次崛起并增加五个职位，总共增加了11个。结果基于来自超过500个投资组合经理和购买侧分析师的响应，在一些320个机构中共同管理估计拉丁美洲股票41.90亿美元。

The recent market volatility has fueled demand for a different kind of research. “Years ago investors wanted big primers to get better educated on the region, but now they need more specific research on companies and actionable thematic investment reports,” says Martins, who leads the No. 2 team in Equity Strategy. (Analysts ranked No. 1 in their respective sectors and the complete list of winning analysts, including those ranked second, third and runner-up,click here.)

To meet that demand, many firms have been adding analysts and expanding their coverage of Latin American markets over the past year. BofA increased the number of analysts on its Latin America team from 25 to 30 — including five economists and two credit strategists — and expanded its coverage from 149 to 154 companies, Martins says.

J.P. Morgan补充了三个分析师，总共26个，并从160到165股增加了覆盖率;在今年年底，这些分析师将追踪175股股票，莱德勒表示，在股权战略中领导排名第一的团队。“我们仍然致力于广泛的区域足迹，”他说，并指出该公司有基于阿根廷，巴西，智利和墨西哥的分析师，以及在纽约。

Morgan Stanley picked up five analysts, bringing its Latin America research department head count to 30; they follow 140 stocks, ten more than in 2009, and will cover 165 by the end of this year, according to Dario Lizzano, the firm’s New York–based director of Latin American equity research. The new hires include two researchers based in Mexico City; two more analysts will join that office by year-end.

“The Mexico market will continue to grow locally, and that is why the majority of the resources and hires were done at the country level,” Lizzano says. “Despite the problems in the developed markets, the Latin America equity business continues to be strong, and average daily trading volume in Latin America is at an all time-high,” he says.

Itaú失去了两位分析师，它计划更换，并转移其焦点，从圣保罗到墨西哥城迁移其一些研究人员。“我们将我们的团队减少了巴西，并增加了巴西以外的团队，”Carlos Constantini，该公司的SãoPaulo的研究负责人解释说。“我们希望扩展到新地区的覆盖范围。我们已经在阿根廷一家公司覆盖了墨西哥的14家公司，还有更多的来。“ITAú的34分析师跟踪了144股股票，从去年125年起。

The move by some firms to reach a broader segment of the Latin American market is in part because of a steep decline in equities in Brazil, the region’s largest economy. One of the world’s best-performing emerging markets last year, Brazil is now one of the worst: The nation’s benchmark Bolsa de Valores, Mercadorias e Futuros Bovespa index slid 1.6 percent in the first seven months of 2010 (see “Let the Gains Begin — Again“）。相比之下，墨西哥有点更好;它的基准Bolsa Mexicana de Precios y Cotizaciones of alcores of valores通过七月到日期为1.1％至7月。

“In Brazil commodities are severely overrepresented in the stock market,” notes Constantini. “Therefore, it is fair to say that commodities dictate the biggest part of the Latin America market performance.”

Diversifying across the region will help lessen the impact of declining demand for Brazilian commodities, which has overshadowed the region’s dynamic growth. Morgan Stanley expects Latin American economies to deliver aggregate year-over-year real gross domestic product growth of 6 percent this year and 3.7 percent next year, with corporate earnings growth of 50 percent in 2010 and 23 percent in 2011. “These figures are significantly stronger than for any developed economy,” says Lizzano.

因此，许多分析师认为，投资组合管理人员很快就会重新克服他们与拉丁美洲市场的爱情，他们预测强劲的增长。“我们认为巴西将倾销，其次是墨西哥和智利，”Bofa的Martins说。“在总计股票市场将在今年30％的盈利后发布强劲的盈利和下一年20％。”

When stakeholders decide to return to the region to share in those gains, they will find no better guides than the analysts on the2010年拉丁美洲研究团队.