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这里来夏天的沮丧

评论:有一个术语水手用来用来描述水上的炎热天,没有风:笨蛋。对于美国市场的当前状态而言,也可以说同样的情况,而且整个美国经济。

有一个术语水手用来描述水上的慢炎热的日子,没有风:笨蛋。该术语由18世纪的水手创造,发现海洋地区在赤道的北方圈出地球的地区通常是近乎不可能穿过的,因为炎热和无风的条件。这些海洋区域臭名昭着,甚至到这一天,用于捕获天数,甚至几周。这不是百慕大三角形,但这是一个历史地区和术语,用于描述令人沮丧的缓慢而无精打采的情况;对于美国的当前状态而言,也可以说是同样的。此外,美国经济的整个广度。

In Patrick O’Brian’s novel, Master and Commander (which was later turned into a movie starring Russell Crowe), Captain Jack Aubrey and his British Naval vessel lose contact with the French frigate they are tracking to destroy because Aubrey’s ship becomes stuck in The Doldrums. Things become so bad that the crew of the ship is convinced they have a cursed officer on board – after weeks of hot weather and no wind the officer eventually ends up believing the curse and commits suicide. While O’Brian based this book on early 18th century naval warfare, the scene of Aubrey’s ship stuck in The Doldrums seems to echo in reality this summer, especially with the oppressive weather we’ve seen on the east coast.

在过去的30天里,第一个覆盖市场情绪指数已下跌4.59%至55.4分,今年夏天继续下跌至关重要。虽然许多人已经相信我们在熊市,但我们的指标仍处于看涨领域,但可能不会在8月份塑造更长时间,这可能是交易者的慢月。

八月会带来什么?

常见知识,八月通常对交易者缓慢,因为大多数人在本月努力逃避他们的暑假。总体而言,七月是美国股票的积极月份,但不是要大多数,因为经济的经济新闻超过了体面的盈利报告。8月初仍有很多盈利报告,但在地平线上还有更多的经济经济新闻。最重要的是7月失业报告,可能会展示每个人所期望的 - 持续高失业率以及更多的美国经济的证据。虽然7月底,市场似乎采取了Q2 GDP数字,但从Q1的3.7%的Q2中,Q2的GDP增长速度降至2.4%并没有帮助投资者信心。

对于大多数春天和夏季来说,我们在这一栏中提到的是,在空中拥有如此多的经济球,投资者对投资者感到自信,这很难。此外,从石油泄漏到阿富汗到欧元区危机的情况下,对欧元区危机如此多的全球新闻,并没有帮助投资者感觉更好。美联储主席本伯南克于8月2日呼应了这种情绪,告诉了一群国家立法者,美国经济正在改善,但仍有很长的路要走。伯南克说,“我们有一种相当多的方式来实现我们经济的全面恢复,许多美国人仍然争取失业,止赎和储蓄损失。”

许多人都在将这个夏天称为失去的夏天,有些人已经指的是未来十年作为丢失的十年,因为较为覆盖的坏经济新闻的庞大数量。

好消息?

The good news is that compared to First Coverage Sentiment Index numbers from August 2008, the current First Coverage numbers don’t seem to be pointing towards another market crash – which is what we saw shortly after August 2008. In fact, sentiment numbers in August of 2008 drifted as low as 49 points; the FC Sentiment Index is still hanging in there at 55 points, currently. The good news is that another fall market crash is most likely not on the horizon; the bad news is that much like a sailboat in The Doldrums, this market doesn’t seem as if it’s likely to pick up speed anytime soon.

Roland Beaulieu是基于波士顿的首席财务议员首席财务公司首次覆盖。Beaulieu和第一次覆盖可以达到info@firstcoverage.com.有关首次覆盖的更多信息,请访问http://www.firstcoverage.com/