International Investors Absent From Egypt’s Bond Auction

在持续的政治动荡中，埃及的央行在星期一的本地银行向该国的当地银行销售了130亿英镑（22亿美元）的财政部。T-Sills的平均收益率为11％，在反政府示范开始前几周前举行的最后一次政府债务销售额为1.5％。但是，尽管收益率较高，但国际投资者显着缺席昨天的短期债券拍卖。

At the same time, Monday also saw the Egyptian pound fall to its lowest level in six years -- 5.953 per-dollar -- as many international investors moved quickly to reduce their exposures to Egypt after the banks reopened.

Some investors are now acknowledging that Egypt’s political uncertainty is contributing to a deep financial malaise.

“The country’s not going be stable anymore,” says Tariq Qaqish, a director and fund manager in the asset management division of UAE-based investment bank Al Mal Capital. “The macro [economic] picture is changing, and the political picture is changing,” he adds.

Qaqish认为投资者，包括自己，将在不久的将来分配对埃及的投资犹豫不决。

与此同时,随着货币是further devalued, food prices for Egyptians -- whose country is one of the world’s largest wheat importers -- will continue to rise dramatically. As such, Qaqish warns that any future government will be forced to increase subsidies, thus putting more pressure on the already debt-laden economy.

Inflation, hovering above 11 percent, also remains a significant economic challenge.

Charles Howlett, a senior equity research analyst at London-based Matterhorn Investment Management, an emerging markets firm, says he was quite interested in Egypt’s macro situation when he visited in November, well before the turmoil erupted. “But, I held off buying anything because of inflation,” he explains. Howlett believes that as long as Egypt’s political uncertainty persists, the more the country’s fiscal crisis will deepen.

But other investors -- many no-doubt anticipating a big sell-off when the stock market reopens this coming Sunday -- see a long-term opportunity in Egypt’s political and economic disarray.

“We will be taking advantage of the situation,” says Daniel Broby, CIO of London-based Silk Invest, an asset management boutique that targets Africa and the Middle East. Broby says the situation in Egypt has triggered a “financial contagion,” impairing asset prices in that country and other Middle Eastern states, including Bahrain.

“[We] raised cash levels to 7 percent in the broader MENA region in order to take advantage of opportunities and distressed valuations in Egypt when the market reopens,” he adds.

Broby’s strategy is to invest now and wait out the political unrest in Egypt, until assets rebound. “The changes -- greater transparency, more freedoms -- can only lead, longer-term, to higher GDP growth, and that can only lead to higher asset valuation,” Broby argues.

Gary Greenberg, an emerging managers product specialist at London-based Hermes Fund Managers, agrees. “More democracy and more representation will be probably be a good thing,” he says. Greenberg, too, is anticipating opportunities when the Egyptian market reopens. “We’re watching it very closely,” he explains, adding, “We are quite familiar with a number of companies on the market and are in touch with them.”

Qaqish and Howlett are more skeptical.

“Mubarak,” Howlett reminds, “is very pro-business.” He takes pains to underline that nothing is clear yet, but Howlett acknowledges a potential risk that some business-friendly reforms implemented under Mubarak -- lower taxes for the wealthy, public-private partnerships -- could be reversed under a new Egyptian leadership.

“The suggestion is that business groups have been close to the government...[they] could be punished,” Howlett says.

虽然Qaqish认为埃及的政治转型是“对[阿拉伯人]街道的态度，”他也承认，“埃及上市公司的一些主要股东将被挤压，如果穆巴拉克离开，将会挤压，并将失去理由。”