The Flight to Risk: Twitter and the Madoff Market

Bernie Madoff的监狱房子接受纽约杂志的自我介绍性质（“我是一个好人”）很烦人。然而，更多的令人不安的是，他对整个金融体系的起诉作为“Ponzi计划”可能已经有一个不仅仅是对它的烈性。

The fact that news of his interview appeared on February 28 just about the same time that word of JPMorgan Chase’s potential investment in microblogging site Twitter came to the fore was particularly unsettling. The Financial Times, which orgiinallly broke the story, says JPMorgan’s new $1.22 billion social networking investmet fund plans to buy about 10 percent of Twitter for roughly $450 million, giving the site a valuation of about $4.5 billion.

Last week, private market Sharespost revealed that a private auction had pushed the value of Twitter’s series B preferred shares to $34.50, or an implied $7.7 billion for its estimated 223.7 million shares, according to Reuters. This, for a company that was valued at just half that level, or $3.7 billion, in December with venture capital firm Kleiner Perkins. Other backers have included Union Square Ventures and Bezos Expeditions, which is Amazon founder Jeff Bezos’ venture arm.

How can this soaring valuation be? There are a few reasons, none of which ultimately have much to do with Twitter’s business model or management. Twitter is expected to triple its revenue to $150 million in 2011 and to hit $250 million in 2012, according to eMarketer. The latest auction, therefore, values Twitter at about 75 times forward-looking revenue. That’s rich, but it’s in line with other up and coming Internet companies.

Twitter飙升估值的催化剂不是收入模式，但Goldman Sachs在1月份的举动举动，以4亿美元的额外资金投入了10亿美元，以及富裕的欧洲个人进入Facebook的10亿美元。这笔交易价值为500亿美元，虽然公司现在在私人市场估值超过650亿美元。利润怎么样？请不要问。

“我认为在Facebook的投资让其他人都说，我们也想做这一点。纽约媒体投资银行Desilva + Phillips的合伙人Jeffrey L. Desian说，杰弗里L. Desile说，有一点点遵循。“

This is not to say that Twitter doesn’t have huge potential as a new media and communications platform. The service, which allows users to send 140-character messages, has 190 million users around the world. Twitter’s new CEO, Feedburner founder and Google veteran Dick Costolo, has a plan for expanding the use of advertising and promoted sites. It has a wide following, from celebrities to media types in the U.S. and revolutionaries in the Middle East.

但这仍然没有证明当前估值。“我会说这个情况的获奖者是卖家，而不是买家，”伊斯蒂斯说。“我会说VCS正在推动它。”

The venture capitalists can take enough money off the table to declare the investment a total success for themselves and their limited partners, leave a bit of equity for future growth, and enjoy the upside.

The banks also benefit by locking in millions of dollars in fees and positioning themselves for Twitter’s future IPO.

The buying can be explained in several ways. Many people are susceptible to the argument that Twitter— or Facebook, or Groupon — might be the next Microsoft or Google. And, indeed, any one or or all three just might be. Who would want to miss that? But there’s a chance that at least one of these companies will be the next AOL or Yahoo, too.

As compelling as Twitter’s story is, there are reasons for caution. As Dearth notes, Twitter uses spend far less time with the platform than Facebook users spend. And Facebook’s environment is more suitable for certain kinds of advertising. Of course, Twitter can be monetized in many ways, including white-label services sold to corporate customers that put their own brand on the product.

伊斯敦说，Twitter的估值是最近几个月起飞的，因为商业模式终于开始变得更加清晰。但其担忧认为，私人市场的投资者知道今天的Twitter的展望​​，而不是一个月前的投资者。最近的大部分购买只是一个赌注，明天的推特比今天的价值更值得，只是因为别人愿意更多地支付更多。

投资者who buy Twitter at its current level aren’t necessarily crazy or foolish, either. The point here is that Twitter’s valuation can’t be justified, not that the value won’t continue to rise. And in a large portfolio, there might be room for a few risky bets with the potential for a big payoff.

There’s nothing illegal or fraudulent about such investing. But the mindset of counting on an endless stream of new money to make the old money good still has an eerie ring of familiarity. And as Twitter’s valuation pulls ever skyward, the odds that someone loses will rise, too.