坚持你的枪并不总是容易的。只需提出着名的逆向投资者大卫·沃德曼,创始人和驱动员价值管理主席。在2008年的崩溃之后,沃德曼观察了他的资金,这是沉重的银行和其他金融股,猛冲35%至45%。他选择了这些股票,因为他们被廉价重视,并且价格收入比率低,符合其价值投资哲学。
Dreman’s Jersey City, New Jersey, firm lost more than three quarters of its assets under management, dropping from $22 billion in late 2007 to $4.7 billion by year-end 2009. “We didn’t realize how deeply the banks were invested in real estate,” he admits. “They didn’t realize themselves, and like lots of money managers, we got hurt.”
74岁的沃德曼已经突破了市场。自1977年以来,他还经历了几种动荡。对于加拿大的温尼伯,本土的温尼伯,没有任何比较最新的:“这真的是我见过的最糟糕的恐慌。”但是,沃德曼拒绝出售他的银行股票,看到美国银行公司的长期价值,如美国银行公司,JPMORGAN Chase&Co.和Wells Fargo&Co.
投资者不太自信。2009年6月,DWS投资,德意志资产管理的零售部门,被解雇了Dememan作为其划分者 - 29亿美元DWS Sureman高回报股权基金,其中21%被投资于金融资金。
沃德曼,四本关于逆向投资和联合编辑的行为金融杂志的作者得到了最后一次笑。“他们在底部出售,”他说,笑。The $118 million large-cap Dreman Contrarian High Opportunity Fund, his firm’s equivalent of the renamed DWS Strategic Value Fund, has gained almost 140 percent since the market lows of March 2009. By comparison, the Standard & Poor’s 500 index has climbed just over 100 percent, while the DWS fund is up roughly 115 percent. Dreman’s fund still holds many of those same bank stocks. “We knew we were dealing with survivors,” he says.
如今,沃德曼价值管理投资于小型,中型和大型股票,管理55亿美元的共同资金,附构资金和单独的账户。该公司具有令人印象深刻的曲目记录。从1988年4月到今年1月,其大型策略发布了10.8%的年度回报。
Before going out on his own, Dreman was director of New York research for Dallas-based Rauscher Pierce Refsnes and senior investment officer at New York’s J. & W. Seligman & Co. In 1995 he sold Dreman Value Management to what was then Kemper Financial Services, only to buy it back two years later. Last September, Dreman, the firm’s CIO since 1977, handed the reins to E. Clifton Hoover, his co-CIO for the previous four years.
这两个人相似:购买提供低于P / E,价格到账面价值和价格到现金流量比率的股票,与平均产量高。他们为长期投资,从未从其逆行战略转向,即使它成本为止。“当您必须在制定业务决策和投资决策之间时有时代,”胡佛解释在2006年在达拉斯的NFJ投资集团CIO之后加入了沃德曼。“我们每次都做出真正的投资决策。”
由于低于预期的盈利报告或坏新闻的特殊情况,沃德曼寻求拥有强大的基础知识的公司。一家这样的公司是英国石油巨头BP。在沃德曼的观众中,投资者在去年的漏油后覆盖了BP的股票。“市场价格假设未来责任为1150亿美元,而我们的估计值为300亿美元,”胡佛宣布。(对于潜在负债,BP抵制了约410亿美元的收入。)沃尔曼于2010年6月开始购买BP,平均价格为36.92美元。截至3月1日,股票交易约48美元。
德勒:瑞安航空的另一个有利可图的选择。 The asset manager began snapping up the Irish discount airline’s stock in May 2010, when it had plunged to 12 from 20 times earnings in response to the volcanic eruption in Iceland, which grounded many Ryanair flights. Dreman paid an average of $25.20 and sold in September at $31.18, after receiving a $1.81 special cash dividend. Although the firm doesn’t usually unload stock so quickly, it made an exception for this opportunity.
沃德曼正在寻求技术和金融部门的讨价还价,并持有其能源股,直到它们完全恢复价值。这种策略正在获得结果。6500万美元的全盖驱动员价值股权单独账户2010年增长22.6%,而罗素价值3000指数为16.2%。
“我们有一个严格的投资过程,我们的屏幕总是上升,”胡佛说。“这真的是我们如何赚钱。”