亚洲通胀之战创造了买入货币的机会

在整个新兴市场，特别是亚洲发展中国家，石油和食品的消费价格都在急剧上涨。各国央行采取了一系列措施来控制通胀，其中包括提高对汇率上升的容忍度。外汇策略师表示，这一政策转变为数种亚洲货币创造了买入机会。汇丰控股(HSBC Holdings)驻纽约的新兴市场货币策略师克莱德•沃德尔(Clyde Wardle)表示:“新兴市场的前景是一致的，因为存在通胀威胁，因此从理论上讲，强势货币有助于降低进口价格，有助于抗击通胀。”“与此同时，美元仍然非常疲软，导致亚洲货币强劲升值。”虽然美元和欧元在外汇市场上自由浮动，但大多数亚洲国家采用的是所谓的“有管理的浮动”，即中央银行进行干预，以保持本国货币的有序波动，防止过度波动。是什么导致了新兴市场的通货膨胀突然爆发?一些经济学家指责美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve Board)的零利率政策，该政策导致投资者纷纷涌向发展中国家寻求更高的回报。但也有国内因素，印尼、新加坡和其他亚洲国家的经济增长强劲，国内对燃料和商品的需求不断上升。例如，在新加坡，通胀率从2010年第三季度的3.4%上升至今年第一季度的5.2%。 The Monetary Authority of Singapore controls monetary policy by adjusting the exchange rate rather than interest rates. On April 14 the central bank said it had shifted its exchange rate policy band — based on a basket of currencies it does not disclose — upward for the third time in 18 months. It didn’t announce an exact number, but analysts at Standard Chartered peg the increase at about 2 percent. The Singaporean dollar, which was trading at $1.29 to the greenback at the start of the year, had risen to $1.24 by mid-May, a 4 percent gain. In a similar move, on May 6, Bank Negara Malaysia raised its overnight policy rate, a target for day-to-day operations, by 25 basis points, to 3 percent. HSBC recommends going short the U.S. dollar and long the Singaporean dollar and the Malaysian ringgit. Indonesia, where consumer prices jumped 6.16 percent on an annual basis in April, is another example of a central bank using an appreciating currency to fight inflation. Thomas Harr, a Singapore-based currency strategist at Standard Chartered, notes that Indonesian monetary authorities have allowed the currency to climb rather than raising interest rates after February’s 25-basis-point hike, the first in two years. “They made a very clear FX policy change in February when they said they will allow Indonesian rupiah appreciation to deal with their rising inflation,” Harr says. The rupiah has increased some 5 percent this year, reaching about 8,600 to the U.S. dollar. Standard Chartered strategists recommend selling the Indian rupee and buying the Indonesian rupiah, and selling the Philippine peso to buy the Malaysian ringgit. In addition to the inflation issue, Harr says, Malaysia and Indonesia are relatively strong because they are the region’s only two major oil producers, while India and the Philippines are big importers of oil. Thio Chin Loo, French bank BNP Paribas’s senior currency and interest rate strategist in Singapore, says that although there are some cross-currency plays in Asia, transaction costs can limit the opportunities. “We’ve called for underperformance in the rupee, but if you short the rupee and buy the Singapore dollar, there are heavy carrying costs because the Singapore dollar interest rates are lower than U.S. dollar rates and you would be paid less,” Thio says. “But if you short the rupee and buy the greenback, it’s a little less costly.” Strategists at BNP Paribas say they see a steepening opportunity in the South Korean won because the Bank of Korea is likely to maintain a policy of modest monetary tightening. The won was up 3 percent for the month of April, making it the best-performing currency in Asia.

另一个担心通胀的亚洲国家是中国，4月消费者物价较上年同期上涨5.3%，远高于政府设定的4%目标。中国当局今年已经允许人民币对美元升值近2%，5月中旬达到6.49元，这是有史以来的最高水平。由于这种通胀压力，汇丰(HSBC)建议做空美元，做多在香港交易的离岸人民币(CNH)。