俄罗斯退出:外国银行的撤资掩盖了该行业的复苏

通过击败俄罗斯撤退的国际贷款人的数量来判断，该国的银行业似乎遇到了一些困难。然而，真实的图片是乐观的 - 并且比哈萨克斯坦的情况显着越来越积极。汇丰控股上个月宣布，它将在俄罗斯关闭逃离零售银行业务，并专注于企业客户。该举动仅次于伦敦巨头推动消费银行业的推动为2亿美元的投资，以扩大该国的一部分，其中少数几个新兴市场之一落后于其竞争对手。银行远离独自一人。2月，巴克莱将其俄罗斯零售业务放在街区，并表示将集中于该国的投资银行。该决定代表了战略的另一个迅速转变：2008年3月，英国银行花了7.45亿美元购买莫斯科的博览会，其希望变成消费银行市场的主要球员。现在它表示业务缺乏竞争所需的规模;巴克莱预计将于今年年底销售expobank。这两家英国银行加入了一些其他欧洲贷方，最近宣布的计划缩减俄罗斯，包括西班牙的Banco Santander，比利时的KBC集团和斯德哥尔摩瑞典班克。 Some analysts have been quick to blame Russian authorities, accusing them of choking competition by favoring the growth of national champions such as Sberbank and VTB Group, the country’s No. 1 and No. 2 banks, respectively. “Trends suggest that non-state banks are going to continue to be marginalized,” Eurasia Group analyst Kim Iskyan wrote in a recent research note. If that’s the case, someone forgot to tell Russia’s big private banks. Alfa-Bank, the country’s largest private sector lender, posted a record profit of $553 million in 2010, a sevenfold increase from the crisis year of 2009. Assets jumped by 32 percent. Alfa, which is owned by billionaire Mikhail Fridman, noted that its retail unit became profitable for the first time, earning $208 million before taxes. Nomos Bank, the eighth-largest private sector bank, raised $718 million last month with an initial public offering on the Moscow and London stock exchanges, a deal that valued the lender at $3.2 billion. The bank posted a 72 percent increase in net income in 2010, to 7.4 billion rubles ($270 million), and boosted assets by 35 percent. It also made a domestic acquisition late last year that promises to deliver further growth in 2011. This sort of energetic recovery is typical of the Russian banking sector, says Richard Hainsworth, head of Moscow-based bank rating agency RusRating. “By and large, the commercial banks are coming out of the crisis well,” he says. The government’s involvement in the banking sector is undeniably large: Russia’s five biggest banks are all state-controlled. Yet their share of the market is steadily shrinking, at least on the retail side. Sberbank lost 1.7 percentage points of market share last year and now holds 48 percent of the nation’s individual deposits. In the mid-2000s that figure was about 65 percent. VTB’s share held steady last year at about 6 percent. If foreign banks are reconsidering their commitment to Russia, it is not because the government has tilted the playing field. Instead, the reason seems to be more banal: Too many multinationals piled in during the fevered days before the September 2008 market collapse, and now some are dropping out. HSBC, for one, is in a consolidation phase under new CEO Stuart Gulliver. Since taking the reins in January, Gulliver has concluded that nearly half of the bank’s operations around the world are insufficiently profitable.

相比之下，更早进入俄罗斯的跨国公司已经站稳脚跟，没有任何离开的迹象。意大利联合信贷银行(UniCredit)、Raiffeisen Bank International和Société Générale(通过其子公司Rosbank)均跻身该国前11名银行之列，花旗集团(Citigroup)也进入了前20名。奥地利Raiffeisen公司最近公布，其俄罗斯子公司去年的税前利润增长了76%，达到2.67亿欧元(3.95亿美元)。为什么其他银行在这家奥地利银行表现如此出色的情况下离开俄罗斯?首席执行官赫伯特·斯特皮克(Herbert Stepic)给出了一个简单的答案:“小麦正在从谷壳中分离出来。”