当欧洲联盟开始推动20世纪90年代的欧元时，单一货币的对手拥有多空欧洲的想法，从集团的传统实践中偏离所有成员采用本集团的各项政策。特别是欧洲怀疑论者特别是，这种差异化的联盟将使U.K.留在欧元区以外，但仍然是欧盟成员，良好的身份，全面访问集团的商品和服务市场。
今天，这款多球欧洲的欧洲比以往任何时候都更具现实，而是扭曲。巨大的区别不是在单一货币中或欧元区成员之间或者之间的国家之间。欧洲债务危机使主权风险成为该地区债券市场的最重要的司机，并派遣收益率飙升到远远超过那些在国内货币的日子里普遍存在的水平。对于拥有大资金计划的借款人，以可接受的价格保护融资的挑战大于以往任何时候都大。
The recent worsening of the crisis, including Portugal’s decision last month to accept a E78 billion ($110 billion) bailout package from the EU and the International Monetary Fund, and mounting speculation about a rescheduling of Greece’s debt just one year after it received E110 billion in assistance, has raised the risks for borrowers and investors alike. The brief respite earlier this year, when spreads narrowed and European policymakers talked as if they had resolved the crisis by agreeing to set up a permanent bailout facility, the European Stability Mechanism, now appears to have been a false, or at least premature, dawn. There are signs of increasing tension in the euro area; comments by German Chancellor Angela Merkel and European Central Bank officials ruling out any Greek debt restructuring sent yields on ten-year Greek government bonds spiking by more than 60 basis points on May
20单独。这些债券上个月晚些时候收出了16.76％，或比同类德国政府债券的比较，称为德国债券。
实际上，欧元区现在是三层市场。在核心谎言德国，该德国设立了欧洲基准，并享有不受限制的市场的访问。在全球金融危机前，十年南邦斯的产量低于2010年晚上的3.07％，超过2.7％，但低于全球金融危机的发病前，2007年5月至上的4.2％普遍存在。A second tier of countries includes core euro members such as France and the Netherlands and non-euro countries like Sweden and the U.K. These states have seen their yields rise relative to Germany’s, but they can still tap the markets freely, even if most have scaled back their borrowing programs as part of an EU-wide drive to reduce budget deficits. France’s ten-year bonds were yielding 38 basis points more than Bunds last month, well above the spread of 2 to 3 basis points that prevailed back in 2006. Last, there are countries like Italy and Spain, which have not had to resort to EU-IMF bailouts but are struggling with heavy debt burdens and sluggish economies. The spread on Spanish ten-year bonds rose to 241 basis points late last month, a near record since the adoption of the euro, while spreads on Italian bonds stood at 170 basis points, up from about 120 back in November.
西班牙是市场前景的关键，因为其经济规模将令欧盟和国际货币基金组织难以安排纾困。首相José Luis Zapatero的政府在过去的一年里坚决削减赤字，并试图通过整合来加强过度扩张的银行系统，坚持西班牙可以靠自己的力量恢复财政和经济秩序。大多数投资者仍然相当乐观，认为马德里将取得成功，欧洲将遏制希腊、爱尔兰和葡萄牙债务危机最严重的部分。安盛投资管理公司(AXA investment Managers)驻伦敦固定收益业务首席投资官克里斯•伊格戈(Chris Iggo)表示:“市场现在相信，欧洲值得关注的国家西班牙将安然度过这场危机。”
但市场信心已经开始，自3月下旬以来，当西班牙银行MiguelÁngelFernándezorzönnándezorzönnándezzönnándezzormónez时，能够吹嘘西班牙在纽约外交关系委员会举行的发言中的发言下降。希腊重新安排的前景在投资者中强调紧张。Moody’s Investors Service warned late last month that such a rescheduling, which it considers tantamount to default, would have potentially severe repercussions for many other EU borrowers, leading to “increasingly polarised sovereign ratings in Europe, with stronger countries retaining high or very high ratings and weaker countries struggling to remain in investment grade.” At the same time, mass protests against Spain’s 21.3 percent unemployment rate and a heavy defeat for the ruling Socialists in municipal and regional elections last month at the hands of the conservative People’s Party have fanned doubts about the country’s willingness to sustain fiscal austerity.
在这种环境中，西班牙政府必须在销售其债务方面变得更加积极主动和市场友好。财政部向过去18个月举行的投资者道路数量翻了一番，以便向投资者放心，以至于在2013年将政府将其预算赤字减少到GDP的3％，并执行主要银行业，养老金和劳动力reforms, according to Ignacio Fernández-Palomero Morales, head of the Treasury’s funding and debt management unit. The Treasury has worked more closely with bankers to identify good windows for issuance and to price its syndicated debt offerings. “There has been much more intense interaction with its bankers this year,” says Rom Balax, deputy head of European public sector syndication at Royal Bank of Scotland Group in London. The Treasury has also stepped up coordination with other European issuers to ensure that there is not an excessive amount of supply in the market at any given time. In January, officials consulted with their Belgian counterparts to make sure the two governments wouldn’t tap the market on the same day. Spain issued a €5 billion ten-year bond issue on January 17, and Belgium followed the next day with a €3 billion ten-year offering.
西班牙计划今年将其净借款减少24％，达到472亿欧元，这是反映其赤字裁定议程的趋势。政府表示，今年从2010年的9.2％削减了赤字的赤字赤字到6％的目标。尽管有一个事实，但该财政部继续挖掘市场的长期，但它还规定在这些情况下差价更高，because officials believe consistency is important and because they don’t want to increase refinancing risk. The government has gradually extended the average maturity of its debt over the past seven years to 6.8 years from five years. The average funding cost for Spain’s debt has risen to 3.85 percent currently from 3.69 percent at the end of 2009.
“欧洲水平存在一个不稳定的情况，但我们无法对我们的整体战略进行快速变化，”Fernández-Palomero Morales说。“我们希望尽可能透明和可预测。截至今年我们所做的事是为我们的发布计划而不是季度的月度公告。这使我们更敏感到短期市场状况。“
这种努力并不总是成功。市场来源称，上个月的财政部上个月仅售为30年的30年债券，大约一半的纽约金额，市场消息人士称。3月份债券的产量为6.002％，高于前30年拍卖的5.875％。此外，Fernández-Palomero Morales表示，他很高兴的是，该财政部能够在同一天销售25亿欧元的十年债券，其收益率为5.395％，略微略低于前十年销售的5.472％。
欧元区的外围问题的问题从资金角度来看，核心国家和U.K.由于投资者在这些学分中寻求安全，这被认为是坚实的。荷兰州国库电机构负责人（荷兰州国库电机构）表示，荷兰政府年度借款年度净借款年度净借款额增加了近600亿欧元，以至于近600亿欧元。在阿姆斯特丹。荷兰十年债券上个月的收益率为3.36％，从2010年的低价下降约2.8％，但远低于2007年夏天的4.6％的产量，就在金融危机爆发之前。荷兰纸以29个基点交易，略低于法国债券。
对于一些投资者来说，只有德国才能赋予他们在其他地方看到的风险。“随着传播秀，德国债券是首选资产，”伦敦斯科德尔投资管理的固定收益基金经理Thomas Sartain说。“传统的政府债券投资者希望安全。”德国纸张数量的略微减少也有助于加强政府的基准状态。德国计划在今年减少其债务发行，2010年从3120亿欧元降低3020亿欧元，这是努力今年将赤字降至2.5％的GDP，从2010年的3.3％降至2.5％。政府旨在消除到2015年赤字。
德国财务机构是管理政府债务的财政部，正在强调其发行计划的可预测性和一致性，而不是试图利用任何短期市场机会。这种方法延伸到其膨胀联系债务的产品。对此类论文的需求增加，反映了投资者对可能的通货膨胀造成的担忧。4月份，金融机构在2018年的债券上销售了27.6亿欧元的债券，以低产率仅为0.83％的通货膨胀率。但总体而言，原子能机构不打算增加今年的通货膨胀联系方式，超过2010年的总额110亿欧元。
德国机构也在玩稳定的比赛。KfW Bankengruppe, the state-guaranteed development bank, did delay a $4 billion three-year global bond issue for two weeks in March because of the Japanese earthquake and tsunami, but it hasn’t altered its funding strategy because of Europe’s debt problems, says Frank Czichowski, the group’s treasurer. As of late May the bank had raised €40 billion of its 2011 target of €75 billion, slightly below last year’s €76 billion total.
欧洲债务危机的最大福利商之一是U.K.在欧元区以外的自由并能够以自己的货币发出债务，很少感觉很好。这对一个只有一年前在欧盟的第三大赤字中，这是特别的情况，特别是在爱尔兰和希腊之后，占GDP的10.4％。从那时起发生了两件事。首先，大卫卡梅伦总理联盟政府已收缩紧缩计划，旨在在2010年3月的财政年度的11.1％到2016年削减了11.1％的赤字削减了1.5％的人。该立场至少恢复了市场信心，至少为现在。“There has been a fantastic turnaround in the way the U.K. has been seen since the beginning of last year, partly because of efforts to cut public spending and partly because of the transparency of the Debt Management Office,” says Lee Cumbes, head of frequent-borrower debt capital markets at Barclays Capital in London.
其次，U.K.受益于投资者担心欧洲债务可持续性的投资者飞行。“有轶事证据表明，避难所资产的购买避难所存在，”债务管理办公室首席执行官Robert Stheeman说。银行家们说这项避风港的大部分购买来自亚洲和中东的央行和主权财富基金。The effect of the inflows has been impressive: The government’s benchmark ten-year bond, or gilt, was trading at a yield of just 3.34 percent late last month, below the 3.7 percent level of a year earlier and down from 4.6 percent in May 2006.
然而，英国确实有一个通货膨胀问题。价格上涨4.5％，超过英格兰银行的2％的双倍。随着对通胀保护的需求上升，债务管理办公室计划在4月1日开始的财政年度发行纪录380亿英镑的通货膨胀债券，比上年340亿英镑，2008年仅20亿英镑 -’09. The issuance is part of a record borrowing program of £167 billion, up slightly from £166.4 billion in the previous year, and represents the highest proportion of index-linked debt — 22.7 percent — of any European country. “There is strong demand from U.K. pension funds in particular, and we want to meet that,” says Stheeman.
她的陛下的财政部和许多欧洲国家的财政部都处于相对自信的心情。但过去的一年的活动已经改变了主权风险的概念。欧洲的大借款人将不得不保持警惕，以避免在市场动荡中陷入困境。