CLSA Leads First All-India Research Team

许多经济学家预测，印度的国内生产总值增长将会减缓，近约7.5％ - 相对术语的失望，因为经济衰退 - 遭受了崩溃的发达市场，欢迎这一利率。但印度作为投资目的地的承诺仍然是不达到的，政府受到影响的增长被视为无响应，无效和腐败而被视为腐败。

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印度储备银行筹集了2010年3月至2011年6月的十六次利率，以遏制通货膨胀，该公司在3月结束的财政年度达到了估计的8.6％ - 完全有一半的百分点，以上达成协议估计值8.1百分。但在6月，政府授予国营炼油厂的许可，以提高柴油和烹饪天然气价格，这一举动旨在减少该国的预算赤字，但也可能会燃料通货膨胀。

再加上这场通胀之争，印度电信业也出现了一些备受关注的丑闻，印度中央调查局（Central Bureau of Investigation）在这些丑闻中指责政府官员以远低于实际价值的价格将合同授予与政治有关的公司。印度主计长和审计长估计，这起被指控的欺诈案可能使政府损失了约400亿美元的收入，迫使政府一位高级部长安迪穆图·拉贾（Andimuthu Raja）于去年底辞职（他被指控犯有共谋、犯罪不当行为和滥用职权），并玷污了承诺打击腐败的辛格总理的政府。拉贾否认有任何不当行为。

“诈骗害怕没有在印度投资的人，”CLSA亚太市场印度股权研究负责人N. Krishnan。“即使是那些具有在印度历史的投资者，腐败已经变得​​相当高的意识。”

Kotak Securities执行董事兼机构股票联席主管Sanjeev Prasad对此表示同意。他说：“外国投资者对糟糕的宏观形势和缺乏治理感到担忧。”。“除非这些问题得到解决，否则印度将不会成为全球基金青睐的目的地。”

也许不是，但许多投资者现在愿意采取他们的机会 - 借助于洞察力的研究，让他们提醒他们到赚钱的机会并使他们远离潜在的麻烦斑点。根据参与机构投资者的就职的投资组合管理人员和购买侧分析师，根据CLSA亚太市场提供CLSA亚太市场的清晰最清晰亚博赞助欧冠All-India Research Team调查。CLSA捕获了15个总团队职位，一半再次与第二名领带的两家公司一样：信贷瑞士和科帕基证券。Bofa Merrill Lynch全球研究紧密四分，九个职位，其次是摩根士丹利，八。结果基于全球约有280个机构的近500人的响应，在投票时管理估计的1870亿美元，占MSCI印度指数市场资本化的66.8％。

2011年全印度研究团队排名，每个调查的17个部门中排名排名第一的分析师的概况;除了第二和第三名分析师的概况以及调查方法的解释。

即使它目前正在达到期望，印度少数问题也很少有潜力。MSCI India指数在5月12日之前的12个月内占美元的9.3％;这是迄今为止最糟糕的表演者，往往是巴西市场，拖尾巴西（上涨15.2％），俄罗斯（上涨35.8％）和中国（上涨16.2％）。因此，涵盖印度市场的大多数研究董事正在与分析师的头部计数方面保持现状，并在其覆盖范围内进行边际增加。CLSA在过去一年中只添加了一个分析师，使其总额为19;当克里希南表示，他们涵盖了135个印度股，比去年超过去年，克里希南在投资组合战略中排名第二。

据印度股票研究主管阿希什•古普塔（ashishgupta）介绍，瑞士信贷（creditsuisse）雇佣了20名分析师，其中一名一年多前就有了，他们跟踪了130家公司，高于110家。在政府在处理宏观经济和治理问题上取得进展，投资者的焦虑情绪得到平息之前，更积极的扩张将被搁置。“通胀需要得到控制，政府需要进行改革，让投资周期回暖，”古普塔说，他在金融业排名第三。

新德里犹豫不决的时间越长,越situation will become, researchers fear. “We haven’t had much response from the government in terms of policy reforms,” notes Kotak’s Prasad, who has held his head count steady at 30 and has no plans to add analysts; but he did expand stock coverage by 15 companies, for a total of 165, and plans to add 15 to 20 more in the year ahead. Government inertia is not the only issue scaring away investors, he adds. “It’s not as if India is a very cheap market. India trades at a price-earnings multiple of 15 times December 2010 earnings, while China is at about 12 times and the U.S. is at 13.5 times,” Prasad says. “Many other developed markets are trading at 11 times.”

这两个问题是相关的，观察朱普岛，博约州博福尼亚州印度股权研究负责人。“人们预期了很多改革，估值是为了很多好消息，”他解释道。“P / E倍数已达到昂贵的19至20次的一年前期收益。”BOFA在过去一年中雇用了两名分析师，将其总量带到22;他们超过一年前覆盖了160股股票。

摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）印度股票研究主管、投资组合策略（Portfolio Strategy）头号分析师德赛（Ridham Desai）认为，印度政府需要采取果断行动，否则形势将恶化。他表示：“应对通胀上升的政策行动有些延迟，这可能导致经济增长预期放缓。”。“未来12个月，无论是GDP还是盈利，增长都将低于过去12个月的水平。至关重要的是，政府必须采取一些政策行动，安抚紧张情绪，让商界人士放心，一切照旧，并将过去8个月的事件抛诸脑后，”他补充说，他不仅提到电信丑闻，还提到与10月份德里英联邦运动会有关的腐败指控。经过长达数月的调查，印度中央情报局于今年4月逮捕了辛格领导的印度国大党议员、活动组委会主席苏雷什·卡尔马迪；卡尔马迪被控作弊，与向受青睐的服务提供商授予巨额合同有关的犯罪阴谋和伪造，导致近2000万美元的超额成本。他否认有任何不当行为。

Morgan Stanley employs 28 analysts covering Indian equities, the same number as last year, and those analysts follow 132 stocks, up from 120. Desai says he plans to add an analyst to cover infrastructure companies and expects to expand coverage by ten to 15 stocks in the coming year.

During the global financial crisis, India had little to worry about as it was insulated from the world of toxic assets that Wall Street had peddled. So, when the MSCI India index plunged 58.6 percent (in dollar terms) in late 2008 and early 2009, the pullback had less to do with fundamentals than investor unease about all instruments in all markets. By the spring of 2009, most of the bad news was over and many Indian companies were bouncing back after a few quarters of poor performance. GDP growth, which had slowed from 9 percent in the 2007–’08 financial year to 7.1 percent in 2008–’09, was forecast to top 8 percent in 2009–’10, according to government projections. Indian equities were attractively priced after the sell-off, but many investors remained jittery ahead of general elections in April and May of that year. When the incumbent Indian National Congress–led coalition returned to power that May, investors celebrated and drove the index up more than 21 percent in dollar terms in a single day. By mid-September 2009 the index had catapulted more than 121 percent off its March low.

随着投资者对通胀上升和央行无力应对通胀、大宗商品价格波动和腐败丑闻越来越警惕，市场继续上涨，尽管速度要慢得多。该指数11月见顶，此后一直在下滑；5月收盘时仅比2009年收盘时提前7%。

“The markets are reflecting a fairly quick change in the macro environment that manifested itself late last year,” says CLSA’s Krishnan. “Between November 2010 and January 2011, investors realized that inflation wasn’t going to subside in a hurry, and the sentiment turned negative.”

摩根士丹利的德莱说，情况实际上比出现更糟糕。“印度市场可能没有似乎是绝对的任何地方，而是在相对绩效上，印度从2010年11月开始表现了大约20％的人，”印度未成本大约20％，“他说。

即便如此，分析师和公众仍有理由感到乐观。德赛说：“印度是选股者的一个非常好的市场；这是阿尔法的大好时机。”。“基本面强劲，不过由于没有太多触发因素导致市场大幅走高，市场可能仍处于区间震荡。但如果你是一个12到18个月的投资者，如果你选择了合适的股票，你会做得很好。”

Consumer consumption remains strong. “India is largely a domestic economy, and while its stock market is correlated with other global markets, the economy has a low correlation with the globe,” BofA’s Jaipuria says. This domestic economy is healthy, supported by the consumption needs of its large population — nearly two thirds of whom are under age 35. Income levels are rising, the savings rate is high, and the changing lifestyle is driving demand for consumer goods.

Moreover, “corporations in India are doing quite well,” Desai says. “The underlying growth story remains very strong, so it’s not that India’s growth rate is going to plummet or India is slipping into recession.”

Over the next ten years, Jaipuria predicts, India’s market capitalization will increase, driven mainly by earnings growth. “India’s weight in the MSCI index is very low compared to its market capitalization,” he says. But he is confident that will change.

与此同时，印度的市场不适不应损害其作为一个伟大的长期机会。Desai指出，孟买证券交易所的敏感指数或Sensex的十年尾随复合归还均为17％ - “这是世界上最好的。我们可以在未来十年内预期Sensex将在15％的复合中。“

Although foreign investment is allowed in most sectors, restrictions on ownership exist in some cases. However, market observers expect the government to relax these rules, particularly with regard to insurance companies — for which market participants expect the government to raise the cap on foreign investment from 26 percent to 49 percent — and so-called multibrand retailers. “If these issues are sorted out, everything will start moving forward,” believes Jaipuria.

Until policymakers act, however, India’s promise remains on hold. “With so much global uncertainty and the lack of positive action from the Indian government, you have to live on a month-to-month basis,” says Kotak’s Prasad. That seems to be okay with money managers that heed the short- and long-term recommendations of analysts on the2011年全印度研究团队。