J.P. Morgan将于2011年的全部研究团队中排名第一

2011年全美研究团队

世界经济危机加速了金融的全球化 - 至少在许多投资者的眼中。Asset managers that once focused primarily or even exclusively on the U.S. have been compelled to look beyond its borders not only to keep abreast of developments overseas that could affect American markets — the Arab Spring and Europe’s sovereign-debt debacles, among others — but also to avail themselves of better opportunities that exist in other countries.

“Our clients, particularly the larger ones, are global,” explains Noelle Grainger, J.P. Morgan’s head of U.S. equity research. “They might not be investing truly globally, but they have to think about issues globally, and it’s important to make sure that we’re driving our strategic initiatives in that direction as well.”

This broader focus applies to corporations as well as countries. Stuart Linde, head of global equities research at Barclays Capital, offers one example. “Consumer staples is a big global business,” he says. “If you’re covering General Mills, if you’re covering Kraft, you need to know what’s going on at Nestlé. If you’re covering P&G, you need to know what’s going on at Unilever,” he explains, comparing U.S.-based consumer goods companies with their European peers.

Bofa Merrill Lynch全球研究中的美洲股权研究负责人表示另一个原因。“美国正在成为一个更成熟的市场，”他观察。“我们的经济增长率不会在可预见的未来脱离图表，因为必须碰巧重组美国经济。如果你只是看着美国，那就更难找到阿尔法。“

为了提供客户找到最有帮助的研究，分析师覆盖美国股票在香港和世界各地的同行，这些日子更加紧密地工作。在提供视角来，在提供金钱经理的角度来看，可以在J.P. Morgan最常见的是，研究人员全美研究团队连续第二年 - 但是通过非常狭窄的保证金。J.P. Morgan captures 40 total team positions, six fewer than last year and only one more than the two firms that tie for second place: BarCap, which repeats at No. 2 despite a loss of four positions, and BofA Merrill, which rises one notch even though its total drops by three.

That margin widens dramatically, however, when team positions are weighted: J.P. Morgan is the clear favorite, thanks to having 17 analysts who win the top spots in their respective sectors — that’s more than double the No. 1 spots captured by BarCap and four times the number claimed by BofA Merrill (see Weighting the Results, page 92). Survey results reflect the opinions of more than 3,500 buy-side analysts and portfolio managers at over 1,000 firms that manage some $10.7 trillion in U.S. equities.

确保分析师提供全球perspective that investors demand prompted a research department restructuring at J.P. Morgan, with Grainger rising from deputy to replace Thomas Schmidt as head of U.S. equity research last October, when the latter was tapped to oversee global equity research. The firm is emphasizing collaboration among members of its regional teams via written reports, conference calls and “the dialogue that happens day to day behind the scenes between the analysts,” Grainger says. “That’s a relatively new structure for us and an important evolution.”

Barcap正在采用类似的策略。对于一个全球成功的方法，林德说，几件事必须发生 - 包括支持最重要的倡议。“如果高级人员参加并理解这一重要，它将在本组织变得普遍存在，”他说。对齐不计力的力量也是关键。赫格格的同意。BOFA MERRILL将其“经济学家，股权战略家，货币战略家，信贷战略家，抵押贷款支持的战略家，共同参加大型活动，”他说。例如，8月初的星期天晚上呼叫在美国的信用评级的标准和穷人的降级下降1,600名客户 - 在呼叫进行重播后，2,200次听取。

花旗，从第八场跳到第六（摩根士丹利），拿起三个职位，总共26个职位，也利用其整个平台来协助投资者。“重点是全球洞察力，能够告诉美国的客户，在美洲研究总监Jonathan Rosenzweig解释说，能够在美国北美，欧洲，欧洲，拉丁美洲的表现如何影响他们所关心的股票的展望。“这与尝试制定全球呼叫的不同之处，例如在各个地区购买哪个股票。”

与投资者对全球视角有关的是对宏观经济研究的兴趣飙升。自金融危机开始以来，“我们已经看到了宏观主导股票选择，”德意志银行证券的尹罗在定量研究中首次亮相。在崩溃之前，大多数金钱经理 - 他说，90％的额度 - 对股票采摘比其他任何东西更感兴趣。但自2008年以来“我们已经看到了趋势变化，现在我们的客户有一半人说最有趣，最有关的话题是宏观经济分析，”罗说。

意识到基金经理正在寻找新想法，罗经常在寻找新信息来源，过去一年中已经测试了广泛的数据库，包括选项数据，债券数据和高频交易数据。“我们一人在努力和从客户那里获得很多兴趣，就是从其他资产课程中借用想法，”他解释道。“我们再也不能只是股权投资者。”

这是因为股票市场仍然是搜索for direction. Nonetheless, portfolio managers still value top-notch insights about companies and sectors, such as those provided by J.P. Morgan’s C. Stephen Tusa Jr., who captures top honors for the first time in Electrical Equipment & Multi-Industry. Even though shares of many of his companies are well above their 2009 lows, he says, the market is waiting for the next stage of earnings growth and looking for signs that business confidence has returned. “I’m a believer that, while this isn’t a normal cycle, we’re not going back into recession,” Tusa says. This time is different, he adds, because growth is slower than in previous downturns. Among companies in his sector, average organic growth for a five-year period is usually in the 5 to 7 percent range; Tusa forecasts growth for the next three years in the low single digits.

托斯拉的观点是他的同事史蒂文亚历尔诺洛斯，第一次在银行/中间地图中首次呼应。Alexopoulos说，平均水平的银行股票下降了24％，但客户还在等待底部。“投资者正在看银行股票并说：'现在等一下。如果你没有在存款方面留下的房间进一步减少速度，你的利润率将真正挤压 - 挤压到你不再获得资本成本的地步，“他指出。情况可能不会很快改善。“我们可能不会看到另外两到三年的税率，”他补充道。“你需要经济展示一些力量和消费者和企业，以便增加速度的信心。所有这些都会同时发生 - 这可能是2014年的活动。“

与Bofa Merrill的Tal Liani相比，Alexopoulos是彻头彻尾的Giddy。“我是消极的 - 比其他人更负面，”宣布在赢家圈子中首次在数据网络和有线设备中完成胜利者的圈子。（他也在电信设备/无线中排名第二。）“过去三个季度的成长速度已经放缓，投资者仍然没有反映它。人们在概念上知道它，但他们还没有翻译它尚未缩短期望和降低每股收益预测。“

Investors need an “EPS reset,” agrees Credit Suisse’s John Pitzer, in his first appearance at No. 1 in Semiconductors. Companies in his sector are seeing EPS estimates fall further than those in other tech sectors and in the broader economy, with estimates down 8 percent in the second quarter alone, Pitzer says. “People are trying to figure out, ‘Is it enough? Is there one more earnings cut to come, or are there going to be several?’” He believes semiconductor companies in general are back on the path to achieving the 9 to 11 percent growth they enjoyed before the tech bubble burst in 2000 — but it will take a while to get there. “We’ve just gone through an eight- to ten-year period in semis where it was too easy to add capacity,” he says. “We’re now going to go through a three- to five-year period where supply growth is going to structurally slow, and that should give pricing power back to semis.” In the near term the big issue is “the macro headwinds and how those headwinds are going to impact the sector in the next couple of quarters,” he says. “Semis are the most cyclical sector in tech, and tech is one of the most cyclical sectors in the market.”

Paul Sankey of Deutsche Bank，首次在整合油中首次上名单，可以涉及这一点。他说，他的公司是“现在是市场上最便宜的部门的最便宜子名。”即便如此，“我们仍然对集团仍然不是很积极 - 它的增长率低，并且可以在余量下返回回报，”他解释道。“需求方面很弱，部分原因是油价如此高，部分原因是经济如此虚弱。对于人们对集成油感到兴奋，这是一个艰难的环境。“

The grass is much greener on Stephen Maresca’s side of the energy fence. The Morgan Stanley analyst, at No. 1 for the first time in Master Limited Partnerships, says that, even though the product market is weak, demand is strong to develop the infrastructure needed to transport oil and gas from the producers to the consumers — and that’s where MLPs come in. They have the operating expertise as well as the access to capital. Infrastructure investment “is a big driver of cash flow growth for MLPs, a big driver of distribution-per-share growth for MLPs. And we think that growth will continue at least for the next two to four years and likely beyond,” Maresca says.

The MLP business model is an advantage when economic growth is tepid and the stock market is volatile. The revenue stream is “essentially guaranteed because they’ve got a commitment from five or ten oil and gas producers who say, ‘We will commit volumes to you for the next five years, the next ten years,’” he explains.

Oil prices may be on the high side, but natural-gas prices are low, and “demand is growing just about everywhere around the world — and the U.S. definitely has a competitive advantage,” says Citi’s Faisel Khan, who tops the roster for the first time in Natural Gas. In fact, there is so much supply in North America that Khan holds “a bullish outlook on the competitiveness of U.S. industrial companies, which are energy-intensive companies that use a lot of natural gas.” In a global economic slowdown, everybody is hurt, Khan says, but the U.S. “maintains a competitive advantage when it comes to energy costs, so that should help, to some degree.”

That’s true, says J.P. Morgan’s Jeffrey Zekauskas, who leads in Chemicals for the first time. “The performance of the U.S. economy — short of a second long and deep recession — is now less important than it historically has been to the chemicals industry,” he believes. The global price of chemicals is set by the price of oil, but U.S. chemicals companies use natural gas to make their products — and inexpensive prices for natural gas lead to higher profitability, he says. Demand from Brazil, China, India and other emerging markets now accounts for 25 percent of overall business annually for U.S. chemicals companies, compared with 5 percent a decade ago. Thus, Zekauskas says, “the profitability of the chemicals industry today should prove higher, more durable and less cyclical than its historical pattern” — and investors should take advantage while they can. He predicts a quarter or two of contracting domestic demand because the slowing economy is causing customers to reduce inventories, leading to a short period of quarterly earnings pressure. But that won’t last long and “should present opportunities to purchase chemicals stocks at attractive prices before an acceleration of earnings growth in 2012,” he adds.

如果只有相同的替代能源空间。瑞银的斯蒂芬奇首次投了该部门的最佳分析师，注意到他的公司高度依赖政府补贴和银行融资。不幸的是，“替代能源产品价格仍然不足以与这些补贴无关，而且很多银行不想承担更多的债务来借入这些项目，”他说。

J.P. Morgan的Tycho Peterson在他第一次出现在生命科学与诊断工具中的名册上，他的行业公司表示在同样的问题。学术研究的政府补助可以为这些公司的25％到80％的任何地方占用。“作为超级委员会的核心预算核心预算的核心会发生什么，以1.2万亿美元的预算削减？”他提到，提到特殊的Bipartisan委员会任务，以确定减少联邦支出的方法。在这个环境中，“很难看到人们冲自己的团队，”他指出。

One analyst keeping a close eye on the budgets that determine government funding is Andrew Laperriere, new leader of ISI Group’s top-ranked team in Washington Research. The supercommittee’s work is one of the most pressing issues at hand, Laperriere says, with the potential to affect several sectors, such as health care and defense. The 2012 U.S. presidential election — “one of the most important elections in the last few decades for investors,” he believes — gains added import because of the state of the economy. The postelection president and Congress must deal with the nation’s long-term budget problems. “If they don’t tackle that issue right out of the gate, there’s a likelihood of further downgrades and the likelihood of a loss of confidence,” he cautions. Laperriere also thinks it’s “very likely that there’s going to be another deficit-reduction package that’s going to be front and center in 2013 — and that will have major sector implications.”

花旗的Gregory Badishkanian是休闲首次声称杆位的位置，只知道更广泛的经济可能在部门级别的影响;自由裁量费用通常是第一次削减现金绑定的消费者。“自从我们认为这对宏观经济环境的改进很大程度上，这很难预测休闲恢复，”他说。这种改进已经讨论了 - 但仍然可以看到。