Learning from Lehman

短短三年前，劳伦斯麦当劳发现自己在全球金融危机的震中。作为雷曼兄弟持有的苦恼债务和可兑换证券的副总裁，他在公司的崩溃期间，其市场和全球经济落后。麦当劳 - 从丧失工作和与公司绑定的丢失的工作和卷起 - 转向写作。结果是巨大的常识失败：雷曼兄弟崩溃的内幕故事。他现在是Asset Manager Lgm Group和纽代理商，由SociétéGénérale和CréditAgricole制成的经纪人，公司贷款销售高级总监。他也是一个博主，带有Twitter手柄@Convertbond。

McDonald, 46, sees more than a few similarities between the summer of ’08, just before the collapse of Lehman, and the current economic and financial environment. He spoke with Institutional Investor Contributing Writer Steve Rosenbush about those similarities — and why this time the situation is even more serious. Here are highlights of their conversations.

亚博赞助欧冠机构投资者：为什么今天的金融市场提醒你2008年夏天的情况？

麦当劳：我们现在面临的情况与'08夏天非常相似，在雷曼之前，与信贷危机的早期阶段非常相似。银行只是不互惠互惠。有许多令人不安的指标。欧元经统计署传播，衡量银行彼此兴奋的衡量标准，距离2003年至2007年的几个基点。现在它已经扩大到了信贷危机期间最近看到的水平 - 80个或更多基点。这只是疯了。这是巨大的。

The TED spread, a measure of what banks charge to lend to one another, is the highest it has been in more than a year. The same is true for the dollar LIBOR-OIS spread, a sign that banks are unwilling to lend. The CDX index that measures corporate credit risk is rising. And CDS on five-year Italian debt is blowing out. I think that is very, very important.

这是其他令人痛苦的迹象。Facebook等IPO正在延迟或拉动。高产债务发行非常低。这也令人不安的是，信贷市场没有能够跟上股票市场。由于8月1日股票从山顶到谷峰并备份，从而使股价为6％或7％或更多。但信贷市场并没有从销售的波浪中反弹到相同程度上。这是因为信贷市场较大。这就像转动航空母舰一样。除非真的在那里，否则你不会购买。而且它不是。

Just how great is the threat to the global financial markets and the global economy?

这是米ore serious than Lehman? Yes. Is this more systemic than Lehman? Yes. Can it be fixed? That will depend on how the IMF, the ECB and other policymakers and governments around the world react.

请记住，雷曼被相对少量的毒性债务所带来。雷曼的资产负债表3000亿美元。它载有约350亿美元的有毒债务，没有被写入市场价值。问题是，毒性债务率约为40至1.现在，银行持有的主权债务并不像雷曼一样糟糕。真的，主权债务甚至没有毒性。冰岛违约，俄罗斯违约，他们很快就回到了资本市场筹集资金。

问题是主权债务被认为是无风险的，因此银行持有了很多额外的债务。现在正在重新评估关于主权风险的传统智慧。即使这个主权债务比银行认为这是值得的，它也可以消灭他们的资本。

Don’t European banks supposedly have more than enough capital to withstand a default by Greece and maybe even more countries?

Greece is just a small country. Banks have enough capital to absorb its default. But if Greece defaults, then the value of other sovereign debt may need to be written down. That is why some banks have stopped lending to one another. Now all of this is taking place against a backdrop of a slowing economy in Europe, the U.S. and China. That is why this situation is even more dangerous than Lehman.

在美国，联邦储备已经尝试了两轮量化宽松，而上个月它宣布运营扭曲，计划在其资产负债表上出售短期国库券并购买相同数量的债务，以更长的时间，推动更长期的速度，希望刺激经济。然而，这些计划尚未解决问题，并且扭曲导致许多市场的全球抛售。问题是什么？

几年前，银行就像一颗心脏进入经济的心脏。现在，美国和欧洲的央行正试图承担该心脏的作用，将血液涌入经济。它是巨大的大规模规模的政府行动。什么改变了？几年前，抵押贷款支持证券的证券化进程就像一座血管系统，通过经济传播这种生命线。现在证券化过程 - 血管系统 - 不起作用。曾经有每个角落有抵押贷款经纪人，分发资金。他们大多数都消失了，超过330人。这就是为什么定量宽松无法工作的原因。

The ECB has been spending about $12 billion a week to support the sovereign debt markets in Europe. That works out to about $520 billion a year. They need about a trillion, though, and they don’t have the political or financial capacity to do that. The people of Germany have had enough of bailouts to Greece. They feel like they are sending money into a black hole. Imagine how they would feel if China helped, along with the G-7. The German people might not feel so alone; it might reduce the growing political pressure. It would be good to see concerned support for Europe by the G-7 and maybe one or two emerging economies. Italy has $350 billion of government debt maturing over the next 15 months; that’s $23 billion a month that has to be financed. Bond buyers in the capital markets are balking, and the ECB does not have that kind of bandwidth to buy the rest.

鉴于这么多国家的各种需求和议程，那种救助是多么可行？来自中国和巴西的信号表明了一种谨慎的方法。欧洲的忧虑和希腊在希腊内部的抵抗力。

我希望 - 我希望上帝 - 他们弄明白了。