为什么Hewlett-Packard是今天最讨厌的股票

John Lennon写道“所有你需要的是爱”的好原因。我们希望被爱，通常倾向于其他人珍惜的人。但是在投资方面，爱情并不便宜。诀窍是识别错位（或定价的）仇恨，这将变成爱情。这将我们带来了今天最讨厌的股票：惠普公司

这一切都始于8月份的盈利呼吁，在此期间，惠普的惠普首席执行官Léoapotheker推出了新的愿景：惠普将转入软件公司。起初，华尔街和你的真正难以置信;我们以为我们只是误解了Léo的软德语口音。But when on the same call HP announced a possible spin-off of its PC business and the acquisition of U.K.-based software company Autonomy Corp., for which HP will dish out more than $10 billion, valuing it at 40 times earnings, Wall Street realized the CEO was serious, and HP’s stock dropped like a rock.

Hey, everyone loves software — it’s not capital-intensive, and there are high margins and a high return on capital. The problem is that HP is not a software company. More than $100 billion of its sales come from hardware: printers, servers, PCs, storage devices and routers. Software represents just 2 percent of sales. Also, the transition would have required more acquisitions with Autonomy-like price tags.

很难判断它是否是惠普创始人的声音在他们的坟墓中旋转或惠普库存沉没的30％，达到4.5倍的收益，将董事会取消了董事会，这种策略存在着非常错误的事情。信使适当地（如果只是比喻上）射击 - 嗯，Apotheker已经支付了1300万美元，不再展示工作了 - 而且安装了一个新的CEO。董事会任命Meg Whitman，Ex-eBay Ceo，上eNearime加州州长希望和惠普董事会成员。

华尔街并不满意的选择。你听到“HP needs a visionary,” “She is not a techie,” and “She has never run a company of HP’s size.” But Wall Street is wrong. Whitman is a talented and highly respected executive who took EBay, an obscure start-up with barely $4 million in annual sales, and turned it into a $4 billion-in-revenue Internet giant. HP doesn’t need a visionary; it needs a good manager — a mother figure, if you like — who will make the employees feel safe, provide clarity and stop the exodus of talent.

Whitman is also an excellent communicator. She has clarified what Apotheker meant when he talked about a software future: HP will remain primarily a hardware company; it will grow its software business organically by a few billion dollars, mainly to help hardware sales. Hallelujah! HP will decide what to do with its PC business as soon as possible, but the decision will be driven by one factor: maximizing shareholder value.

惠特曼的激励措施得到了适当的对齐。作为美国最大公司之一的首席执行官是一个双赢的命题：如果你成功，你会赚很多钱;如果你失败了，你仍然会赚很多钱（因为她的前任学到了）。但惠特曼对金钱令人兴趣。她是亿万富翁。她花了1.4亿美元的加利福尼亚州普伯纳利亚竞选活动。她对新的挑战感兴趣，如果她成功，她会在1190万惠普股票期权上赚很多钱。

惠普，尽管是每个人最讨厌的股票，但具有一个伟大的品牌，并且是第1号或其在竞争中的每一项业务中的最强大存在。华尔街不喜欢其PC业务，但PC只有15％的营业利润。

当然，华尔街不会让你忘记惠普在企业历史上拥有最具功能失调的董事会。关键是“已有” - 14名成员中有九点于2011年1月加入了董事会，并没有参与以前的丑闻，也没有雇用Apotheker。

任何资产的价值是其未来现金流量的现值，这是一种乏味但基本的投资真实主义。但是，这位真主配有一个星号 - 用现金流动完成半球形的东西。无论业务多么伟大或产生多少现金，如果管理通过贫困资本分配燃烧现金流量，则企业不会对自由现金流量的重视，但在其现金流量的灰烬上。

如今，惠普估值在烧焦的现金流量上，虽然虽然华尔街是对的，但该公司不再值得拥有这种估值方法。惠特曼最重要的任务不是用惠普的充足（100亿美元）的现金流量来做任何愚蠢的事情。她和董事会已经公开致力于不再昂贵的收购。资本破坏的风险已完全取下桌面。如果华尔街要在自由现金流动重视惠普，它将意识到，今天未来十年，今天的价格折扣在自由现金流量下降10％。这是一个不太可能的情景。

Vitaliy Katsenelson.(vk@imausa.com）在丹佛和作者的投资管理伙伴是CIO侧身市场的小书。