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全球曼氏金融的失败预示着更大的风险
The trading firm’s failure reflected Lehman-like liquidity problems, and MF Global isn’t the only example of a financial institution reliant on European sovereign debt.
在全球曼氏金融(MF Global)倒闭之后,银行从持怀疑态度的投资者那里筹集资金的难度越来越大。这家交易公司的倒闭迫使投资者更加仔细地审视其他金融机构的资产负债表。他们对那些他们认为可能使用过多欧洲主权债务作为短期借款抵押品的银行特别警惕。他们还特别关注那些资产负债表上短期债务比例非常高的机构——这一问题在全球曼氏金融(MF Global)和雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)的倒闭中扮演了重要角色。人们担心的是,全球曼氏金融(MF Global)的破产可能是一个更大的、潜在的系统性问题的开始,这个问题是由银行对此类证券的依赖引起的。
The trading firm filed for bankruptcy on October 31, overwhelmed by the need to post more margin on European sovereign debt that was used as collateral for a balance sheet that was heavily reliant on short-term funding. MF Global had exposure to $6.3 billion in European sovereign debt, a big part of its $41 billion balance sheet. It kept about 15 percent of that debt hidden through the use of repo transactions that made it appear that it had sold debt. In fact, it was selling the debt and buying it back in an ongoing cycle, one similar to the controversial transactions at the heart of the Lehman collapse.
人们开始质疑银行资产负债表的圣杯,那就是政府债券。在过去的50年里,人们觉得他们不必担心一个主要工业化国家的违约。现在,这种心态正被颠覆,”他说拉里·麦唐诺,senior director of corporate credit sales at Newedge, the brokerage formed by Societe General and Credit Agricole.
In some instances, investment banks trust their customers more than one another, McDonald said. In Europe, banks are depositing cash with the ECB, even though they could get higher rates by lending to one another. The euro Interbank offered rate, which banks pay to borrow from one another on an overnight basis, rose on Wednesday for the first time since October 28, even as European banks took 230 billion euros last week from central banks. That exceeded the 190 billion euros that was expected, according to a poll by Reuters.
伦敦银行同业拆放利率,另一个关键的老鼠e, has increased on 78 of the last 80 trading days, according to the British Bankers Association, a sign that banks are worried about liquidity and are holding onto cash.
麦克唐纳说,欧洲银行所面临的一些问题,在某种程度上,还有美国银行所面临的问题,类似于导致雷曼兄弟倒闭的问题,他曾在雷曼兄弟担任债券交易员曼氏金融(MF Global)的问题与资产负债表上的高水平短期融资有关,就像雷曼兄弟(Lehman)的问题一样,”麦克唐纳说,他记录了雷曼兄弟(Lehman)的倒闭,这是一次常识上的巨大失败。
而现在,投资者越来越关注美国投资银行杰弗里斯。巴克莱银行在最近的一份研究报告中表示,杰弗里斯资产负债表上的短期融资比例存在问题。
周二,2018年到期的杰弗里斯5.125债券与伦敦银行间同业拆借利率的利差升至714个基点。债券价格从10月份的97英镑跌至82.5英镑。利差远高于摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)等其他银行的可比利差(约450个基点)。摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)得益于存款提供的巨额资产负债表,其息差约为150个基点。
在欧洲,银行在筹集资金方面遇到了困难。联合信贷需要筹集资金以改善其资产负债表,但它在完成交易时遇到了困难,必须向银行家提供更高的费用以抵消他们的风险。
对这些银行的担忧反映出它们对欧洲主权债务的敞口。在欧洲,主权债务不被视为风险加权资产,监管机构允许银行持有大量主权债务。现在,债务的质量正受到质疑。
类似的担忧也令美国银行投资者感到不安,尽管程度较轻。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)和高盛(Goldman Sachs)等美国大型投资银行拒绝全面披露其对欧洲主权债务的敞口。
对包括沃伦巴菲特在内的一些投资者来说,欧洲的银行业问题似乎越来越类似于2008年雷曼兄弟倒闭引发的危机。他说,欧洲已经开始出现债务挤兑和银行挤兑的迹象,欧洲官员将采取更有力的行动来控制局势。
“当你失去信心时,就会开始挤兑,这在某种程度上已经发生在主权债务和那边的银行身上。“2008年,我们在美国有了自己的业务,它利用了美国的全部力量和一些非常有力的行动,”巴菲特在CNBC上说有能力或相信当局会不惜一切代价…这让我们走了出来。但现在还不清楚谁能在那里说‘我们会做任何事情’,他们有能力做任何事情。至于谁能做什么,他们会做什么,必须变得更加清楚。”
So far, many regulators and elected officials in Europe have preferred to blame investors and traders, rather than financial institutions themselves, for high spreads on banks and sovereign debt. Now investors such as Buffett are prodding them to act--before they have an MF Global-like collapse on their hands.