Is Germany’s Safe-Haven Status In Question?

Germany’s safe-haven status within the crisis-ridden eurozone was sullied on Wednesday after a disastrous bond auction sent bond yields soaring in Europe’s largest economy.

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Responding to the news, Societe Generale said: “Some investors are no longer showing up or have started to buy considerably less, preferring other fixed income or alternative safe havens.” It warned: “Auctions like the one this morning could cause fear to escalate that, after France, markets are also starting to doubt the position of Germany as funding pressures continue to mount.”

German and French government finances will come under severe strain if a return to a deep eurozone recession depresses tax revenues, or if there is a sharp rise in the cost they have to bear to bail out other eurozone countries.

A closely watched survey underlined this risk on Wednesday by indicating that the 17-member bloc has already returned to recession.

初步欧元区采购经理指数（PMI） - 每月密切关注经济状况及时的指标 - 建议欧元区产量继续下跌。PMI调查记录了11月输出仅47.2的数字。50以下的任何数字都表明了活动的下降。当与10月和9月的报告结合时，它表明欧元区经济直接萎缩了三个月。综合调查还表明了新订单的下降 - 表明活动将在12月份保持疲弱。

Signs that even Germany’s sovereign bond market is struggling could further damage business activity in the eurozone. Over the past few months, crisis in the bloc’s financial markets has spilled over into the real economy, and vice-versa, in a constantly repeating negative feedback loop.

Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit, the financial information company which publishes the PMI, testified to this phenomenon, saying: “Companies are clearly shaken by the debt crisis and its growing impact on the real economy, both in Europe and further afield.” Based on the PMIs for October and November, Markit estimates that eurozone gross domestic product (GDP) is on course to contract by about 0.6 per cent quarter-on-quarter in the final three months of this year. Mr Williamson added: “Malaise has spread from the periphery to the core. Even Germany is stagnating.”

此外，分析人士表示，这对欧元区的最近经济数据较弱，这是推动君主收益率更高的疲软。

Until recent weeks, debt financing problems had arisen only in those eurozone countries, such as Italy and Spain, whose low economic growth, high debt and yawning deficits raised fears about their ability to repay. But recent weeks have seen a rise in yields in other member states previously not seen as problematical.

在某些情况下，这反映了债务揭游造成的可能欧元区经济衰退的担忧将达到国家税收衰退 - 使其越来越难以支付债务。比利时，其10年收益率在周三收于5.52％的欧洲贸易日，仅在两天内增加66个基点，落入此类别。债务到GDP比率接近100％，它陷入困境。

However, the yields even of countries without severe debt problems have also risen. For example, Dutch bond prices fell last week on the news that its GDP had already declined in the third quarter.

Germany’s downbeat auction suggests that fears about a eurozone debt crisis have now spread to the entire continent. In the secondary market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Bund soared by 13 basis points to 2.06 percent on Wednesday. France’s yields, which have been steadily rising, climbed by another 16 basis points to 3.67 percent.

The rise in yields even of countries with presently stable finances, such as Germany, also reflects the fact that the sovereign debt crisis has recently cast doubt on the very survival of the eurozone. The chaos created by a eurozone breakup could trigger major dislocations in financial markets, including a reluctance to lend to counterparties in different countries suffering from extreme currency volatility — echoing the closing up of financial markets after the 2008 Lehman collapse. This would create severe economic crisis throughout the bloc — including even Germany.