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2001 Asia Research Team
Analysts are appearing in Seoul and Taipei for the first time to get a closer look at local technology giants. Will it pay off?
Analysts are appearing in Seoul and Taipei for the first time to get a closer look at local technology giants. Will it pay off?
By Kazuhiko Shimizu
2001年5月
亚博赞助欧冠机构投资者杂志
The 2001 Asia Research Team ranking results are now available in the Research & Rankings section of this site.
Analysts are appearing in Seoul and Taipei for the first time to get a closer look at local technology giants. Will it pay off?
They,re putting a lot of chips on the chips.
A focus on all forms of technology drives virtually every aspect of equity analysis in Asia these days. "Asia's future is technology and telecoms," says Chitung Liu, until recently a Taiwan-based technology analyst for UBS Warburg. If Liu (a second-teamer in both Taiwan and Technology this year) is wrong, Asia research directors will have a lot of explaining to do.
各大经纪公司正在韩国和台湾等国建立强大的研究团队，为全球竞争对手——三星电子公司、台湾半导体制造公司和联合微电子公司——香港等地的国内草坪提供服务，香港是亚洲大部分研究工作的中心，戈德曼Sachs（亚洲）、美林公司、摩根斯坦利等。所罗门美邦（Salomon-Smith-Barney）和瑞银华宝（UBS-Warburg）等公司正忙于增加技术人员。在某些情况下，这些公司正在将其技术研究部门的规模扩大一倍甚至三倍，以容纳十几名或更多的分析师。”这一切都与科技和电信有关。我们总是要把赌注押在亚洲的这两个行业上。“如果没有TMT [技术，媒体和电信]，亚洲已经死了，”刘，前老板，Michael Oertli，香港瑞银华宝亚洲研究负责人说。（刘晓波今年3月中旬离开瑞银华宝，加盟台湾芯片制造商联合微电子（United Microelectronics）
Of course, such a tightly honed strategy is not without risk. When the world's technology markets sagged in unison last year, Asian bourses felt the fallout. South Korea's technology-heavy Kospi index plummeted 51 percent, Taiwan's weighted index dropped 44 percent, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng index fell 11 percent in 2000. In fact, virtually no market in Asia was left untouched last year. Overall, the MSCI emerging-markets Asia index was off an eye-popping 40 percent for the year. Even China, growing rapidly and readying for its entry into the World Trade Organization, dropped by 32 percent. The top-performing regional market was Malaysia, which lost just 17 percent of its capitalization. Indonesia, Asia,s worst-performing marketplace, nosedived by 63 percent.
机构投资者的排名第八亚博赞助欧冠nnual Asia Research Team reflect the growing importance of tracking Asia's biggest TMT companies. (Please note that we have separated the Asia Research Team and the All-Japan Research Team to provide fuller treatment for both; the All-Japan Team appeared last month.) The largest U.S. and European firms, able to draw on analysts in virtually every market of the world, dominate the rankings. Merrill Lynch, with an amply staffed research team of 80, maintains its top ranking for the third year running; though, with 23 team positions, its lead narrows substantially. Climbing one place to No. 2 is UBS Warburg (formerly Warburg Dillon Read), with 20 ranked teams; Credit Suisse First Boston, strengthened by seven Asia analysts picked up through its November merger with Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette, advances three spots to No. 3. Close behind comes Morgan Stanley, which rises two notches to fourth. CLSA Emerging Markets repeats in fifth.
Two big surprises occurred in the rankings this year. J.P. Morgan Securities, which now incorporates Jardine Fleming Securities and Chase Securities, finishes in sixth place. A year ago Jardine Fleming, still on its own, was Asia's No. 2 overall team. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs, which gained three spots to reach third a year ago, drops back four places to seventh in this year's rankings. As noted in the methodology box on page 88, Institutional Investor has changed some of the sectors included this year. The shifts could have adversely affected J.P. Morgan's and Goldman's rankings this year. Jardine Fleming (now a part of J.P. Morgan) had runners-up in both New Zealand and Australia a year ago, and Goldman had two second-place teams in fixed-income categories. New Zealand and Australia have been combined into one category (in which J.P. Morgan finishes first), and the fixed-income categories have been dropped (costing Goldman two of the three team positions it lost). Investors and rival brokerage firms suggest other possible reasons as well.
Branding issues as well as fallout from two mergers may help explain J.P. Morgan's ranking. Chase Manhattan Bank announced its merger with Jardine's parent, London-based Robert Fleming Holdings, in April of last year and with J.P. Morgan in September, ultimately combining the three operations under the J.P. Morgan name. Neither J.P. Morgan nor Chase had a significant equity research presence in Asia. Predictably, in the wake of the reshuffling, some of Jardine Fleming,s well-respected Asia team of 14 economists and 85 research analysts left the firm. In June Jardine,s Taiwan research head, Mark Baughan (a runner-up in Taiwan in 2000), moved to Deutsche Bank to lead its Hong Kong,based technology research. Andrew Houston, Jardine Fleming's former research chief who now heads J.P. Morgan's Asia research, says it looked briefly as if Baughan had taken his entire Taiwan research team with him. "After I had a chance to talk to the team, they decided to return," he notes. However, Houston did lose his South Korea research chief, Eugene Chung (a third-teamer a year ago), and two South Korea analysts, who joined dot-coms.
Goldman Sachs, descent in the rankings may partly reflect the firm's relatively late entry into South Korea and Taiwan, whose markets have proved attractive to tech-hungry investors, say rivals. Although firms like UBS Warburg have been active in these countries for a decade, Goldman stationed its first analyst in Taiwan only last October. The brokerage house opened an office in Seoul with a single researcher in 1999, adding two more analysts last year. Others have suggested that Goldman has suffered as well for its aggressive pursuit of technology IPOs, an area where many investors have been burned in the past year. Goldman was the top book runner in IPOs, many of them tech-related, for the Asia-Pacific region in 2000. Barry Mannis, co,chief operating officer of global research for Goldman Sachs, defends his group's IPO activity: "We had Internet-driven IPO stories last year, which are now trading below their issuing prices just like the majority of Internet IPOs done last year by any firm." Each transaction, he notes, was completed because "our analysts were enthusiastic about the business model."
高盛目前在韩国和台湾建立了基地，在这两个地区，超过70%的市场都是科技名称，高盛计划弥补损失的时间。曼尼斯说：“在我们所做的每一个方面，销售、贸易、投资银行、研究，我们都在积极寻求在韩国和台湾扩张，在这两个非常大的市场上，我们的业务历来规模较小。“此次招聘是更广泛技术推广的一部分：高盛去年将其亚洲TMT员工增加了一倍多，至15人，并将在2001年再增加两名分析师。
The additional staffing by Goldman and others in Taiwan and South Korea reflects the growing stature of both markets. Hong Kong remains the king of market cap in Asia: At $615 billion at year-end 2000, its capitalization was more than twice that of either Taiwan or South Korea. But each country's turnover significantly outpaced Hong Kong,s: Last year $984 billion in equities changed hands in Taiwan; $558 billion did so in South Korea. Hong Kong's turnover, by comparison, was just $392 billion. The frenzied pace of trading in these markets generates commissions, which in turn help fund equity research. As UBS Warburg Asia research chief Oertli notes: "We had the best year ever in Korea and Taiwan in 2000 , even though South Korean and Taiwanese stocks dropped significantly."
He's not alone in that assessment: "You have to have a strong presence in Korea and Taiwan, which are the major revenue generators," says Hun Soo Kim, Merrill Lynch's head of Asia-Pacific research. "Korea is the largest equity commission market of all Asia. If you are not doing well there, how are you making money?" Hong Kong, says Morgan Stanley's head of Asia research, Vineet Nagrani, has always been the major market for Asia, but South Korea and Taiwan are starting to emerge as rivals. As a result, brokerage firms simply have to be there.
对亚洲TMT行业未来增长的预测，加上许多互联网股去年糟糕的表现，扭转了最近的一个趋势：那些跳槽到网络初创企业的分析师们正偷偷回到投资银行。电信分析师Dylan Tinker去年3月离开德意志银行，领导香港金融门户网站。Quamnet.com网站作为首席运营官。到了11月，他又开始研究电信，这次是为瑞银华宝。安德鲁·布朗（Andrew Brown）差点离开德意志银行（Deutsche Bank）的研究岗位，加入Quamnet，他也有类似的改变在（香港，S]创业板（创业板市场）暴跌之后，我被吓坏了，”布朗说。他避开了互联网，于今年7月加入摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley），担任该公司亚洲地区银行业务团队的负责人，该团队今年首次落成。
尽管研究主管们将大部分精力集中在台湾和韩国市场，但他们的注意力现在可能正转向中国。预计在未来一年，中国将向外国投资者开放更多的市场，继续进行一系列大型国有企业的首次公开募股（ipo），并将实现约7%的GDP增长，这在亚洲是最好的。2000年，中国在国际资本市场融资210亿美元，在邻国中也名列前茅。今年，预计中国银行将筹集250亿美元至300亿美元，其中包括中国银行香港分行提供的40亿美元至50亿美元的贷款，以及中国电信公司（中国电信集团）的80亿至100亿美元IPO。
还有更多的交易正在酝酿中。今年3月，中国政府宣布了一项重组计划，计划在海外上市35至50家国有企业。”由于一级市场、首次公开募股（ipo）和北京有望加入WTO，中国继续成为人们关注的焦点。
多数研究机构高管认为，在北京或上海派驻大量分析师，以报道中国动荡的市场还为时过早，尤其是因为企业提供的信息质量太差。取而代之的是，他们继续依赖香港的分析师。但券商正在聘请中国专家。”里昂证券（CLSA）新兴市场亚洲研究总监尼古拉霍尔特（nicolaiholt）表示：“中国对我们非常重要，也将对我们非常重要。”。里昂证券（CLSA）有9名分析师和1名中国研究主管，去年聘请美国国务院前经济官员安德鲁•罗斯曼（Andrew Rothman）担任中国策略师，并于今年2月将其调到北京。瑞银华宝（ubswarburg）在上海派驻了一名高级分析师henrywu，负责汽车、基础设施和硬件业务，并向北京派出了一名初级分析师。美林在从香港进行所有与中国相关的业务时，现在有六名中国分析师和12家部门研究人员，涵盖中国企业。我们确实非常关注中国的研究。“有数十亿美元的公司在加入WTO后有着良好的长期前景，”美林的Kim说。
The emphasis on northern countries like China, South Korea and Taiwan raises questions about the future of Southeast Asian markets. With few technology companies and an assortment of political and economic woes, will this region fall off the investment map? No one is looking for them to rebound anytime soon. "These markets are not toxic waste, but they are bear markets. We are not keen on them," says CLSA's Holt. Until countries like Indonesia and the Philippines show some signs of recovery, says Merrill's Kim, they are likely to remain in the background. There are selected technology plays available in South Asia. India, with its strong software industry, remains a focus of attention. UBS Warburg added two analysts there last year and strengthened its sales force in anticipation of additional investor interest.
In mid-April of this year, investment banks, heavy bet on Asia technology looked more promising. Though the region's stocks as a whole fell by 2.5 percent in the first quarter, tech shares rose about 15 percent. "The market has already discounted tech stocks, weak world growth and high inventory levels," says Morgan Stanley's Ajay Kapur, the first-teamer in Equity Strategy. "Now investors are looking forward to a pickup in the second half." No doubt, technology analysts and research directors would like to see that, too.
本文所有内容，包括艺术品的复制权，均为《机构投资者》杂志独家所有。未经机构投资者明确书面许可，禁止以任何方式复制本条的全部或部分内容。亚博赞助欧冠
The 2001 Asia Research Team ranking results are now available in the Research & Rankings section of this site.
By Kazuhiko Shimizu
2001年5月
亚博赞助欧冠机构投资者杂志
The 2001 Asia Research Team ranking results are now available in the Research & Rankings section of this site.
Analysts are appearing in Seoul and Taipei for the first time to get a closer look at local technology giants. Will it pay off?
They,re putting a lot of chips on the chips.
A focus on all forms of technology drives virtually every aspect of equity analysis in Asia these days. "Asia's future is technology and telecoms," says Chitung Liu, until recently a Taiwan-based technology analyst for UBS Warburg. If Liu (a second-teamer in both Taiwan and Technology this year) is wrong, Asia research directors will have a lot of explaining to do.
各大经纪公司正在韩国和台湾等国建立强大的研究团队，为全球竞争对手——三星电子公司、台湾半导体制造公司和联合微电子公司——香港等地的国内草坪提供服务，香港是亚洲大部分研究工作的中心，戈德曼Sachs（亚洲）、美林公司、摩根斯坦利等。所罗门美邦（Salomon-Smith-Barney）和瑞银华宝（UBS-Warburg）等公司正忙于增加技术人员。在某些情况下，这些公司正在将其技术研究部门的规模扩大一倍甚至三倍，以容纳十几名或更多的分析师。”这一切都与科技和电信有关。我们总是要把赌注押在亚洲的这两个行业上。“如果没有TMT [技术，媒体和电信]，亚洲已经死了，”刘，前老板，Michael Oertli，香港瑞银华宝亚洲研究负责人说。（刘晓波今年3月中旬离开瑞银华宝，加盟台湾芯片制造商联合微电子（United Microelectronics）
Of course, such a tightly honed strategy is not without risk. When the world's technology markets sagged in unison last year, Asian bourses felt the fallout. South Korea's technology-heavy Kospi index plummeted 51 percent, Taiwan's weighted index dropped 44 percent, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng index fell 11 percent in 2000. In fact, virtually no market in Asia was left untouched last year. Overall, the MSCI emerging-markets Asia index was off an eye-popping 40 percent for the year. Even China, growing rapidly and readying for its entry into the World Trade Organization, dropped by 32 percent. The top-performing regional market was Malaysia, which lost just 17 percent of its capitalization. Indonesia, Asia,s worst-performing marketplace, nosedived by 63 percent.
机构投资者的排名第八亚博赞助欧冠nnual Asia Research Team reflect the growing importance of tracking Asia's biggest TMT companies. (Please note that we have separated the Asia Research Team and the All-Japan Research Team to provide fuller treatment for both; the All-Japan Team appeared last month.) The largest U.S. and European firms, able to draw on analysts in virtually every market of the world, dominate the rankings. Merrill Lynch, with an amply staffed research team of 80, maintains its top ranking for the third year running; though, with 23 team positions, its lead narrows substantially. Climbing one place to No. 2 is UBS Warburg (formerly Warburg Dillon Read), with 20 ranked teams; Credit Suisse First Boston, strengthened by seven Asia analysts picked up through its November merger with Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette, advances three spots to No. 3. Close behind comes Morgan Stanley, which rises two notches to fourth. CLSA Emerging Markets repeats in fifth.
Two big surprises occurred in the rankings this year. J.P. Morgan Securities, which now incorporates Jardine Fleming Securities and Chase Securities, finishes in sixth place. A year ago Jardine Fleming, still on its own, was Asia's No. 2 overall team. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs, which gained three spots to reach third a year ago, drops back four places to seventh in this year's rankings. As noted in the methodology box on page 88, Institutional Investor has changed some of the sectors included this year. The shifts could have adversely affected J.P. Morgan's and Goldman's rankings this year. Jardine Fleming (now a part of J.P. Morgan) had runners-up in both New Zealand and Australia a year ago, and Goldman had two second-place teams in fixed-income categories. New Zealand and Australia have been combined into one category (in which J.P. Morgan finishes first), and the fixed-income categories have been dropped (costing Goldman two of the three team positions it lost). Investors and rival brokerage firms suggest other possible reasons as well.
Branding issues as well as fallout from two mergers may help explain J.P. Morgan's ranking. Chase Manhattan Bank announced its merger with Jardine's parent, London-based Robert Fleming Holdings, in April of last year and with J.P. Morgan in September, ultimately combining the three operations under the J.P. Morgan name. Neither J.P. Morgan nor Chase had a significant equity research presence in Asia. Predictably, in the wake of the reshuffling, some of Jardine Fleming,s well-respected Asia team of 14 economists and 85 research analysts left the firm. In June Jardine,s Taiwan research head, Mark Baughan (a runner-up in Taiwan in 2000), moved to Deutsche Bank to lead its Hong Kong,based technology research. Andrew Houston, Jardine Fleming's former research chief who now heads J.P. Morgan's Asia research, says it looked briefly as if Baughan had taken his entire Taiwan research team with him. "After I had a chance to talk to the team, they decided to return," he notes. However, Houston did lose his South Korea research chief, Eugene Chung (a third-teamer a year ago), and two South Korea analysts, who joined dot-coms.
Goldman Sachs, descent in the rankings may partly reflect the firm's relatively late entry into South Korea and Taiwan, whose markets have proved attractive to tech-hungry investors, say rivals. Although firms like UBS Warburg have been active in these countries for a decade, Goldman stationed its first analyst in Taiwan only last October. The brokerage house opened an office in Seoul with a single researcher in 1999, adding two more analysts last year. Others have suggested that Goldman has suffered as well for its aggressive pursuit of technology IPOs, an area where many investors have been burned in the past year. Goldman was the top book runner in IPOs, many of them tech-related, for the Asia-Pacific region in 2000. Barry Mannis, co,chief operating officer of global research for Goldman Sachs, defends his group's IPO activity: "We had Internet-driven IPO stories last year, which are now trading below their issuing prices just like the majority of Internet IPOs done last year by any firm." Each transaction, he notes, was completed because "our analysts were enthusiastic about the business model."
高盛目前在韩国和台湾建立了基地，在这两个地区，超过70%的市场都是科技名称，高盛计划弥补损失的时间。曼尼斯说：“在我们所做的每一个方面，销售、贸易、投资银行、研究，我们都在积极寻求在韩国和台湾扩张，在这两个非常大的市场上，我们的业务历来规模较小。“此次招聘是更广泛技术推广的一部分：高盛去年将其亚洲TMT员工增加了一倍多，至15人，并将在2001年再增加两名分析师。
The additional staffing by Goldman and others in Taiwan and South Korea reflects the growing stature of both markets. Hong Kong remains the king of market cap in Asia: At $615 billion at year-end 2000, its capitalization was more than twice that of either Taiwan or South Korea. But each country's turnover significantly outpaced Hong Kong,s: Last year $984 billion in equities changed hands in Taiwan; $558 billion did so in South Korea. Hong Kong's turnover, by comparison, was just $392 billion. The frenzied pace of trading in these markets generates commissions, which in turn help fund equity research. As UBS Warburg Asia research chief Oertli notes: "We had the best year ever in Korea and Taiwan in 2000 , even though South Korean and Taiwanese stocks dropped significantly."
He's not alone in that assessment: "You have to have a strong presence in Korea and Taiwan, which are the major revenue generators," says Hun Soo Kim, Merrill Lynch's head of Asia-Pacific research. "Korea is the largest equity commission market of all Asia. If you are not doing well there, how are you making money?" Hong Kong, says Morgan Stanley's head of Asia research, Vineet Nagrani, has always been the major market for Asia, but South Korea and Taiwan are starting to emerge as rivals. As a result, brokerage firms simply have to be there.
对亚洲TMT行业未来增长的预测，加上许多互联网股去年糟糕的表现，扭转了最近的一个趋势：那些跳槽到网络初创企业的分析师们正偷偷回到投资银行。电信分析师Dylan Tinker去年3月离开德意志银行，领导香港金融门户网站。Quamnet.com网站作为首席运营官。到了11月，他又开始研究电信，这次是为瑞银华宝。安德鲁·布朗（Andrew Brown）差点离开德意志银行（Deutsche Bank）的研究岗位，加入Quamnet，他也有类似的改变在（香港，S]创业板（创业板市场）暴跌之后，我被吓坏了，”布朗说。他避开了互联网，于今年7月加入摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley），担任该公司亚洲地区银行业务团队的负责人，该团队今年首次落成。
尽管研究主管们将大部分精力集中在台湾和韩国市场，但他们的注意力现在可能正转向中国。预计在未来一年，中国将向外国投资者开放更多的市场，继续进行一系列大型国有企业的首次公开募股（ipo），并将实现约7%的GDP增长，这在亚洲是最好的。2000年，中国在国际资本市场融资210亿美元，在邻国中也名列前茅。今年，预计中国银行将筹集250亿美元至300亿美元，其中包括中国银行香港分行提供的40亿美元至50亿美元的贷款，以及中国电信公司（中国电信集团）的80亿至100亿美元IPO。
还有更多的交易正在酝酿中。今年3月，中国政府宣布了一项重组计划，计划在海外上市35至50家国有企业。”由于一级市场、首次公开募股（ipo）和北京有望加入WTO，中国继续成为人们关注的焦点。
多数研究机构高管认为，在北京或上海派驻大量分析师，以报道中国动荡的市场还为时过早，尤其是因为企业提供的信息质量太差。取而代之的是，他们继续依赖香港的分析师。但券商正在聘请中国专家。”里昂证券（CLSA）新兴市场亚洲研究总监尼古拉霍尔特（nicolaiholt）表示：“中国对我们非常重要，也将对我们非常重要。”。里昂证券（CLSA）有9名分析师和1名中国研究主管，去年聘请美国国务院前经济官员安德鲁•罗斯曼（Andrew Rothman）担任中国策略师，并于今年2月将其调到北京。瑞银华宝（ubswarburg）在上海派驻了一名高级分析师henrywu，负责汽车、基础设施和硬件业务，并向北京派出了一名初级分析师。美林在从香港进行所有与中国相关的业务时，现在有六名中国分析师和12家部门研究人员，涵盖中国企业。我们确实非常关注中国的研究。“有数十亿美元的公司在加入WTO后有着良好的长期前景，”美林的Kim说。
The emphasis on northern countries like China, South Korea and Taiwan raises questions about the future of Southeast Asian markets. With few technology companies and an assortment of political and economic woes, will this region fall off the investment map? No one is looking for them to rebound anytime soon. "These markets are not toxic waste, but they are bear markets. We are not keen on them," says CLSA's Holt. Until countries like Indonesia and the Philippines show some signs of recovery, says Merrill's Kim, they are likely to remain in the background. There are selected technology plays available in South Asia. India, with its strong software industry, remains a focus of attention. UBS Warburg added two analysts there last year and strengthened its sales force in anticipation of additional investor interest.
In mid-April of this year, investment banks, heavy bet on Asia technology looked more promising. Though the region's stocks as a whole fell by 2.5 percent in the first quarter, tech shares rose about 15 percent. "The market has already discounted tech stocks, weak world growth and high inventory levels," says Morgan Stanley's Ajay Kapur, the first-teamer in Equity Strategy. "Now investors are looking forward to a pickup in the second half." No doubt, technology analysts and research directors would like to see that, too.
本文所有内容，包括艺术品的复制权，均为《机构投资者》杂志独家所有。未经机构投资者明确书面许可，禁止以任何方式复制本条的全部或部分内容。亚博赞助欧冠
The 2001 Asia Research Team ranking results are now available in the Research & Rankings section of this site.