由于布雷顿森林系统的崩溃和20世纪70年代的石油冲击，国际经济考虑因素在美国外交政策方面发挥了越来越关键。
由Deepak Gopinath.
April 2001
亚博赞助欧冠机构投资者杂志
由于布雷顿森林系统的崩溃和20世纪70年代的石油冲击，国际经济考虑因素在美国外交政策方面发挥了越来越关键。全球化的出现和日益增长的经济相互依存感加快了该过程，该过程达到了克林顿管理期间的峰值。财政部长罗伯特鲁宾和他的副手，然后继承人，劳伦斯夏天，像大师一样统治，致电美国政策和其他国家的政策。他们与国际货币基金组织和世界银行等多边机构密切合作，鼓励发展中国家拥抱自由贸易，自由化资本市场，并融入全球金融体系 - 所谓的华盛顿所共识的目标是首次布局在布什政府之前。
鲁宾和夏天支持一个务实 - 和活动家 - 在新兴市场危机中干预的方法，争论世界上任何地方的金融崩溃在某些情况下，迅速威胁到美国和全球经济。他们在1997年-98的全球金融危机期间策划了墨西哥的救助，并推动了亚洲，巴西和俄罗斯的国际货币基金组织LED救援。他们毫不犹豫地向美国盟友公开提供政策咨询 - 像日本这样的盟友。国家部门根据Madeleine albright，在不习惯的情况下留下努力 - 有时是边缘化的 - 作用。
到目前为止，新的布什政府仍然是外国政策问题的未经证实，但有一件事肯定：国家部门不会再留给国债 - 至少不是在为遇险的国家制定政策时，如果他们是deemed to hold a national security interest for the U.S. Ironically, this turn of events is likely to lead to a continuation of Clinton-era policies of intervention and bailouts.
为什么？布什政府的国内利益专注于经济举措，特别是总统的1.6万亿美元的减税计划;除了美国海岸之外，它似乎专注于安全和政治问题。外交政策团队由政治重量级领导，如国家科林·鲍威尔和国防部长唐纳德·拉姆斯菲尔德的斯塔克对比，仍然是经济团队的鲜明对比 - 仍然存在90天进入这个词 - 这与国际经验很少，并设法存根脚趾几次。2月2日财政部长和前阿尔科纳首席执行官保罗奥尼尔无意中发出了德国报纸采访中的市场，即美国不再支持强劲的美元，造成立即晕倒。奥尼尔后来批评财政部的债券回购计划后债券价格下跌。
O'Neill, his deputy, Kenneth Dam, and his nominee for international affairs, John Taylor, show little inclination toward Rubin's interventionist approach. All have been critical of IMF-led bailouts, arguing that these foster the moral hazard that causes market instability. They are less ideologically committed to the multilateral institutions that underpin the liberal economic order. "If you have a foolish fiscal policy and now you know you won't get help, then it will force you to take care of the problem," sums up Gerald O'Driscoll, international economy analyst at the conservative Heritage Foundation.
Powell, Rumsfeld and Vice President Dick Cheney are foreign policy realists, more concerned with how a financial crisis might affect their security objectives than with the theoretical risk that market intervention could create moral hazard. That leads some observers to conclude that the administration will react to future financial crises pragmatically, with the foreign policy team overriding a hands-off position where geopolitical concerns are paramount.
“在下一场危机中，国家将发挥比在最后一次政府中的更大角色，”布鲁金斯机构经济研究总监Robert Litan说。“国家将倡导稳定。鲍威尔是800磅的大猩猩。”
当政治内接触和弱化的银行系统将火鸡送入经济爆发时，新闻将第一次测试不再进入新的一年。对于可能已经预期的那种良性忽视这么多，将在财政部困扰着其思想枪支的团队。
O'Neill而不是将土耳其归咎于土耳其，而不是将土耳其归咎于市场的残酷逻辑，即使是乔治·W·布什总统称为乔治·埃弗·布什的总统，也称为土耳其决定批准浮鸡的浮鸡决定持续的国际货币基金组织的援助它的货币。“在过去一年的土耳其的经济改革方案上，国际货币基金组织的支持，已成功实现了对宏观经济和结构阶段的许多重要目标，”奥尼尔当天土耳其抛弃其货币扣。而不是提高金融蔓延的克林顿时代幽灵，以证明支持，o'neill合理化美国对政治和国家安全条款的支持。“土耳其是美国的重要盟友和好朋友，”他断言。确实。那天，美国战斗机在伊拉克轰炸的土耳其轰炸的目标。
To be sure, Turkey may not be a true test of administration economic policy. The support program is a carryover from the Clinton era. Turkey needed less financial assistance once it devalued, and its strategic importance was never at issue. But as one policy expert close to the Powell inner circle says, "We're not going to have Treasury calling the shots in places like Turkey."
This change in approach is occurring under the rubric of integration, and the new organizational structure of the Bush White House reflects its desire to more closely tie international economics into national security policy. "There is an assumption underlying critiques of the Clinton administration that somehow the economic people were running roughshod over the security people," says the Brookings Institution's Ivo Daalder, an expert on the National Security Council. "It is the explicit purpose of Bush to integrate international economics and security."
这一变革的第一个受害者一直是国家经济委员会，由克林顿组成，与NSC合作，以绘制美国经济和安全政策。两名委员会共享国际经济人员，迫使合作。NEC称会议讨论国际经济问题。
相比之下，布什已经创建了国际经济顾问的职位，现在由前贸易律师加里·埃德森举行，他向国家安全顾问康德莱西稻和首席经济顾问劳伦斯林赛报告。实际上，灌木已经解散了NEC，返回尼克松管理中使用的结构。不再有办法致电NEC会议。相反，NSC将举行会议，以讨论由Edson或Lindsey领导的会话中的国际经济问题。“埃德森将成为国际公务士员工的国际经济学的人，”达雅尔说。
This relative strengthening of the NSC means that inside the White House economic considerations could take a backseat to security deliberations. It could also mean that key international economic decisions will lead to turf fights among Bush's Cabinet members.
"We live in a world where the distinction between economics and politics has dissolved. There are disturbing signs that [the Bush administration] doesn't get it," says Daalder. "They misunderstood the role of the NEC in the Clinton administration and emasculated it, and the outlook of the foreign policy team is highly traditional, state-centric and military-focused. There is no room for economic considerations."
这些变化代表了草皮，而不是政策问题仍有待观察。金融家考虑布什和克林顿政府对国际经济学的差异，比物质更具风格和方法。"Given the uncertainty of the U.S. economic outlook combined with fragility in Japan and uncertainty in the Middle East, it should be clear that any difficulty in emerging markets would be interpreted, as in the 1990s, as a threat to the U.S. economy and ultimately U.S. national security," says Robert Dugger, a global fund manager and co-chairman of the Japan policy steering committee of the American Enterprise Institute.
"We may get the same policy but for different reasons," adds Desmond Lachman, an emerging-markets economist at Salomon Smith Barney. "In large cases that have geopolitical significance, security concerns will dominate economic considerations. In peripheral cases, we'll see more market-based approaches."
The administration's next trial may be Argentina, which in December received a $40 billion bailout package led by the IMF. Argentina matters to the markets, but it is far less important strategically than Turkey. The country is in turmoil as its economy stagnates and pressure builds to abandon its peg to the dollar.
Rethinking the pro-financial globalization policy promoted by Clinton may be welcome. Washington's insistence on capital convertibility and open capital markets set the stage for the Asian financial crisis. Rubin has admitted that Wall Street investors, some of whom rushed into newly opened markets without enough due diligence, deserved much of the blame for recent crises.
But a national-security-focused international economic policy carries risks of its own. Already, there are concerns on Wall Street that the Bush administration may be ill prepared to handle financial crises. And if realpolitik rules, crisis-hit countries more important to global markets than to U.S. foreign policy may be left without financial assistance.
“重要的是[管理]了解国际金融学会董事总经理查尔斯达拉拉的聆讯信息的重要性。