挥霍盈余

Thanks to arcane accounting rules, state plans can use two-year-old financial data and raid their surpluses to hike benefits.

By Justin Dini
November 2001
亚博赞助欧冠机构投资者杂志

But the surpluses are shrinking fast, and the states are playing with fire.

在他成为布什政府的安特拉格主义Czar担任国土安全办公室的主管之前，汤姆岭迫切需要通过他的教育计划。从1995年1月开始的那一刻起，那么宾夕法尼亚州州长向他的议程顶部安排了三个R。

但山脊面临着决定的反对派。强大的教师联盟及其在州立立法机构的支持者挥霍计划，挥霍计划的计划，致力于教师检测标准，并为狭隘的学校提供​​奖学金，因为只是一个制造“后门优惠券”的隐形计划。

最后，经过几周的谈判，州长发现了一个令人悠久的令人悠久的方式来打破激烈的僵局：他买了他的对手，立法者在退休套餐中加上50％的徒步旅行，而该州的234,000名教师，以及其他109,000名其他公共工人，退休福利赢得了25％的增加。批评者爆炸了妥协，为100亿美元的赠品。

How did Ridge find the money to fund such largesse? Not by increasing taxes; with state elections looming, that was one measure he and everyone else wanted to avoid. Instead, Ridge found his pot of gold in the workers' own pension funds. Fattened by years of bull market returns, the $48 billion Pennsylvania Public School Employees' Retirement System had $9.4 billion of assets more than it needed to cover future liabilities. Ridge decided to raid the surplus.

简单又无痛，对吧？在企业界，摆弄养老金盈余是相当标准的事情。盈余可以作为利润流入底线。事实上，在20世纪80年代，在监管机构干预之前，企业袭击者将一些养老金资金过剩的公司作为收购的现金来源。在华盛顿，预算盈余的部分原因是社会保障税超过了目前的支出——这种状况预计将在2016年停止。这正是总统候选人阿尔伯特·戈尔（Albert Gore）想要在他臭名昭著的保险箱里确保的。

当然，宾夕法尼亚州并不是唯一一个享受养老金的国家。总的来说，资金的使用也不是令人反感或轻浮的。今年，11个州的公共雇员工会说服州立法者将盈余以更好的退休福利的形式提供给州工人。陷入养老金低谷的州包括亚利桑那州、新泽西州和得克萨斯州（先是在当时的州长乔治W。布什在1999年，今年又在他的继任者里克佩里（rickperry）的领导下。北卡罗来纳州利用这笔盈余削减了养老金计划供款，缩小了预算缺口。

在这220亿美元的疯狂消费中，只有一个明显的问题。牛市已经结束了，现在每一个刚刚下岗的投资银行家和前交易员都知道这一点。那么，这些州怎么还大着呢？信用政治，以及养老金会计的神秘规则，这些规则允许各州在几年内平均他们的资产，一种称为平滑的技术。由于使用了两年或两年以上的金融数据，各国可以指望至少在纸面上保持不变的盈余。

但在这样做时，各国可能会被火。毕竟，他们的突袭的时间不可能更糟。他们的投资组合的市场估值在某些情况下严重缩减。负债已经跳起来，因为惠益处的徒步旅行，以及利率下降，加速了资金义务的整体增长。虽然各国在会计责任增长核算方面有很大的纬度，但毫无疑问，养老金负债随着资产下降而升起。

"We've taken a huge roll of the dice," says Steven Nickol, a Republican Pennsylvania state representative who serves as a trustee of the Pennsylvania Public School Employees' Retirement System and was one of the few legislators to vote against increased pension benefits. "Right now it seems like a case of getting something for nothing. But we have no idea where things will be in ten years."

Ten years? The day of reckoning may be closer to hand. With the bear market biting, benefit increases are likely to create unfunded liabilities sooner than expected - by anyone's mathematics. Institutional Investor calculates that at least four of the 11 states that tapped their pension funds in the past year have moved from surplus to deficit - marked to current market. The change in Pennsylvania's numbers is the most dramatic: Assuming current market valuations, the state, which had a smoothed 123.8 percent level of funding on June 30, 2000, is now at about 97 percent.

凭借股票迷人，养老基金，就像全国各地的所有投资者一样感到痛苦。根据Wilshire Associates的说法，普通养老金基金已达到116％至106％。现在经济正在进行经济衰退，未来12个月最适合黯淡。除此之外，许多观察家怀疑市场将在技术 - 股票泡沫多年来推动大多数养老基金的最佳回报。纽约和马里兰州未通过福利的国家今年早些时候增加，正面临着对其退休系统捐款的前景，以使他们完全被资助，因为市场下降。

None of this bodes well for funds with declining returns and growing liabilities. As already troubled local finances are strained even further, performance pressure will intensify on the officials overseeing the often giant funds. States usually keep plans adequately funded by increasing their direct contributions when the need arises. But that will become increasingly difficult, if not impossible, as the economy further deteriorates.

“我们正进入一个未知的领域，涉及到经济问题，”标准普尔（Standard&Poor's）公共财政董事总经理史蒂文•墨菲（Steven Murphy）表示在财政选择被削弱的情况下进入未知领域不是一个好主意，这些决定就是这么做的。这些状态现在都在一个盒子里。”

这是一个非常紧密的盒子。在9月11日恐怖主义攻击后经济恶化之前，税收收入已经下降：44​​个州今年看到收入衰落。为了平衡预算，州政府必须削减服务，发出更多债务或提高税收。十五个州今年增加了他们的征税，自20世纪90年代初期以来，首先这样做。养老基金进入不足的地位将不得不与长期的国家机构竞争金钱，例如监督公立学校，医院，公共安全和道路的国家。

在一个最糟糕的情况下，忽视或剥离他们的资金可以对他们的财务造成严重破坏，最终甚至污染了国家的信用评级。例如，在20世纪80年代后期，例如，路易斯安那州和西弗吉尼亚州批准了大量的福利徒步旅行，只能在其退休系统中造成巨额的不净化负债，这是困扰着今天的退休系统。双方都被迫通过税收增加，以帮助处理未债化的负债（以及一系列其他预算需求）。西弗吉尼亚州计划签发40亿美元的债券，以弥补其短暂的债务债务负担。路易斯安那州正在考虑60亿美元的债券问题，但由于立法者的恐惧，它将大大增加国家的债务负担（见方框）。

With such less-than-exemplary precedents in mind, the credit agencies that rate state bonds are keeping a close watch on pension benefit hikes. "An increased benefit means an increase in costs, and that is an additional burden at a time when these states are wrestling with revenue weakness," says Robert Kurtter, a senior vice president for state ratings at credit rating agency Moody's Investors Service. "It is a cause for concern."

No one is saying that Pennsylvania or any of the other states that hiked their benefits will meet the fate of Louisiana or West Virginia. After all, today's benefit boosters, unlike their 1980s counterparts, started off with unprecedented surpluses.

但令人吃惊的是，他们的世界变化如此之快。想想这些基金在一年多一点的时间里跌得有多深。利用最近的市场估值，假设负债增长10%，机构投资者计算出亚利桑那州退休系统的资金支持率从116.4%下降到95.8%；新泽西州的教师和公共雇员基金从109.5%提高到92.2%；德克萨斯州的教师退休制度从107.4%提高到93.4%。总而言之，本不该在未来十年内开始削减盈余的福利上调可能已经这样做了（见下表）。亚博赞助欧冠

养老金领取者没有失去福利的任何危险;国家保证了他们。并通过简单地增加其州纳入其退休系统的金额来解决一个不尽的责任。问题是，没有州立法者想要增加税收，但如果他们这样做，他们就不想转移现金，他们宁愿花钱，说，就雇用更多警察。将数十亿美元倒入退休系统之间的选择，即90％的资助或政治上谐振问题，如提高公共安全尚未选择。

“这事如果立法者automatically increased contributions to the funds," says Edwin Burton, a professor of economics at the University of Virginia and the former chairman of the board of trustees of the Virginia Retirement System, which successfully fought off a raid on its surplus earlier this year. "But the history is that they don't. And next year, with tax revenues dropping, you're going to see people using actuarial gimmicks as an excuse to lower contributions, not raise them."

Pennsylvania may already be feeling the pinch. State Representative Nickol says he is now being told by PSERS's actuaries that as a result of a drop in the funded status of the PSERS fund, the state will almost certainly need to increase its contribution from 1.09 percent of payroll in the next fiscal year to between 3 and 4 percent. "To slip that quickly and that dramatically is quite significant, and we are already feeling the impact," says Nickol, who expects the PSERS board to address the issue this month. "This is hitting at a time when we can least afford it. The budget has to be balanced one way or the other."

他预测，将征税，将削减或服务将被削减以提供所需的资金。“额外的3亿美元，国家将不得不在养老养老金制度中涌入养老金制度，因为徒步旅行将袭击当地学区，因为它们负责涵盖对基金的一半贡献。提高额外的金钱，他说，学区可能会增加当地财产税。“在大多数地区，地方房产税已经通过屋顶。”

在十年前，大多数公共计划都被资金不足。根据Wilshire Associates的说法，1990年，国家的公共退休系统报告的资产仅包括市场估值来计算其数量的资产。2000年1月，公共养老金基金的平均资助地位达到了116％，从1996年的92％达到了92％。在这四年中，公共养老金资产总额每年增加20％，从825亿美元到1.72万亿美元。责任以13％的剪辑增加，达到1.48万亿美元，但几乎不足以抵消收益。

不过，这种基金财务状况的乐观景象很快就过时了。为了理解这一点，参加养老金数学进修课程是很有帮助的。

当一个州的精算师在每个财政年度结束时计算一个计划的资金状况时，他们会做出一系列的假设。它们从上一财政年度结束时的计划总资产开始，然后乘以预期年回报率。自20世纪80年代以来，预期回报率在6.5%至11%之间，尽管在过去10年中基本持平，约为8%。精算师将基金投资收益或损失的一部分加到年度基数上。

这种“平滑”允许养老基金根据其在任何特定时刻的公平市场价值，而是在平均市场价值，通常，三年或五年期间的平均市场价值。倡导者认为该过程使各国能够保持款项稳定和可预测的贡献率。“平滑允许一个国家增加稳定性的资金过程，”S＆P的墨菲说。“否则州将在月份下降并在市场上升起，这将导致混乱。”

It's a perfectly reasonable actuarial technique. But it can also obscure bad investment trends and delay a reckoning if it's not scrutinized. Smoothing allows funds that achieved robust returns in the mid- to late 1990s to reap the benefits years later. By the same token, the losses funds took in 2000 and 2001 are only partially felt now.

"I'd estimate that the actuarial value of assets is roughly 10 percent less than the market value of assets," says Stephen Nesbitt, senior managing director at Wilshire Associates. Nesbitt regards using market valuations as a much more accurate of way of determining a fund's fiscal health.

不过，总而言之，养老金资产的估值相当简单。确定负债可能更复杂。首先，精算师估计他们未来的义务：计划必须在雇员退休时向他们支付哪些福利？这包括对未来通货膨胀率、雇员预期工作年限以及预期寿命的估计。精算师估计未来的工资增长率，因为福利是基于雇员职业生涯结束时的工资。

Once the pension benefit is defined, actuaries calculate its present value. To do that, they work backward, using the discount rate, which represents the interest rate at which pension liabilities could effectively be settled; in other words, the present value of future benefits. The lower the discount rate, the higher the liability.

Unlike corporate funds, though, public plans have a great deal of latitude in accounting for growth in liabilities. Although corporate funds are required by regulators to use discount rates that hew closely to long-term corporate bond indexes, public retirement systems under Governmental Accounting Standards Board rules need only use a "prudent person" approach to determining their discount rates. Most public funds use their expected return on assets as their discount rate.

争议通过负债划分资产的价值，以创造筹资比率，以衡量每美元负债可用的资产金额。超过1.0的资助比例意味着该计划已经为已赚取的福利提供了福利;因此，只要资产以精算率达到精算率而不需要进一步的贡献。在这种情况下，该计划报告了盈余。比率低于1.0的意思是，除非资产获得高于精算率的返回，否则将需要未来的贡献;在这种情况下，该计划面临无尽的责任。

Simple math explains why some states may now be pressing their luck. Over the past couple of years, assets obviously have been falling as the market swoons. Meantime, liabilities are rising for two reasons: the benefit hikes and the decline in interest rates, which should lead states to use lower discount rates.

让我们先看看负债。赔偿责任范围的估计变化变化，但毫无疑问，兴起已经很大。Wilshire的Nesbitt估计，自2001年6月威尔希尔报告的数据收集，在1999年底和2000年中期之间，负债可能已经增长了5个百分点，而资产已达到5分。这将导致资助地位的10分下降，平均计划，降至106％。

咨询公司精算师Alan Glickstein窟son Wyatt Worldwide in Boston, figures that plans have absorbed a 10 percent jump in liabilities during the past year or so. He bases that estimate on the assumption that public funds have seen a decline in the discount rate of at least 50 basis points.

To illustrate how the liability increase takes effect, Glickstein cites the the example of a 50-year-old worker who will retire when he is 60 and die at 80. Glickstein picks the midpoint of his stream of benefit payments - age 70. Assume that the retirement system is scheduled to make a $1 pension payment to this worker when he is 70. Now compare the new discount rate of 7 percent with the old rate of 7.5. Under the old discount rate, the liability would be $1.075, and under the new, $1.07. Take the ratio of those two numbers to the 20th power (to account for the passage of 20 years) and you end up with roughly $1.10 - an increase of 10 percent. That's regardless of any benefit increases between now and then.

但Glickstein的预测增加了10％的责任增加可能是保守的。根据纽约的金钱经理Ryan Labs生产的养老金责任指数，2000年9月和2001年9月，养恤金负债增长了14.64％的剪辑。和萨洛蒙兄弟养老金责任指数，基本上是一个双级公司债券指数，2000年5月在2000年5月之间的100多个基点，大致围绕着许多公共资金确定其财政年度结束时的资金地位，以及本9月底。100个基点下降表明负债增加大约20％。

同样，计划在计算负债时有很大的自由度。虽然一些退休制度选择降低折现率假设，从而增加负债，但会计准则并不要求它们这样做。不过，PSERS的受托人Nickol认为，他的基金8.5%的贴现率假设过高，他将敦促PSERS的员工考虑降低贴现率。”我们已经有两三年没有达到8.5%的回报率了，情况看起来也没有好转，”他说。

理论上这么多。考虑数字在个人国家的情况下如何工作。在宾夕法尼亚州的新法律下，国家将通过将多年的服务量乘以2.5％，从2％所使用的2％，计算员工的福利。想要更高福利的员工必须贡献更多 - 6.5％的薪水，高于5.25％。生效7月1日的新配方使宾夕法尼亚州以及新墨西哥州的养老金福利国家最慷慨的国家。（新墨西哥州的乘数是3％。）

宾夕法尼亚州的计算表明，其资金可以获得年度8.5％的退货，该基金在过去十年中承担了这一基金。立法机构讨论了该基金将持续十年盈余。指向资金的强大投资表现，福利的支持者认为他们没有要求计划以非凡的水平表现。

In fact, Pennsylvania's performance was only average, but it was good enough to exceed its needs. For the five-year period ended December 31, 2000, PSERS posted average annual returns of 12.4 percent, which placed it in the third quartile of all large public funds, according to Wilshire Associates.

基金是否可以继续击败8.5％是一个严肃的问题。2000年，其资产下跌1.9％，将其放在今年第三个四分位数。“如果我们错了，经济是平的怎么办？”尼尔问道。“我们对未来带来了巨大的风险。有人猜测我们将于2012年的猜测。”

Says Dale Everhart, executive director of PSERS, "Investment performance of less than 8.5 percent would have an impact."

为了计算其资金状况，PSERS使用了三年移动平均线作为平滑工具。截至2000年6月30日，PSERS的资金占123.8%，高于1995年的89.7%，这一比例是基于398亿美元的负债和493亿美元的资产精算估值得出的。当时该基金资产的市值为534亿美元。

But the market gains that are funding the benefit hike have already turned into losses. Between June 2000 and June 2001, the market value of PSERS's assets fell $5.2 billion, or 9.9 percent, to $48 billion, according to PSERS.

PSERS尚未公布其负债和资产的最新精算或平滑估值，但截至2000年6月30日，负债仍为398亿美元。根据宾夕法尼亚州公共雇员退休委员会5月7日的一份报告，新的福利将额外增加50亿美元的负债。该报告的结论是，根据2000年6月30日的数据，并考虑到雇员的额外缴款，基金仍将有45亿美元的盈余，超过其448亿美元的新应计负债。

但咨询公司威尔希尔（Wilshire）假设，除了提高福利外，去年到今年，所有基金的负债平均增长了6%——这主要反映了利率的降低，但也反映了服务成本的增加，比如一名员工因另一年工作而获得的福利增加。这将使PSERS的负债接近475亿美元。如果Nickol成功地推动PSERS在本月晚些时候将贴现率降低50个基点，影响将更大。沃森·怀亚特的格利克斯坦认为，负债增加10%的可能性更大，这将使负债增加到493亿美元。根据最近480亿美元的市场估值，这将使pser拥有13亿美元的无资金负债，而不是45亿美元的盈余。

无论如何，预计将持续十年的盈余已经消失了。宾夕法尼亚州的纳税人不会被迫在今年或明年向养老基金支付更高的供款，但他们可能会发现自己比预期的更早介入。

宾夕法尼亚州的经历并不是独一无二的。新泽西州选择了比其邻居更加谦逊的好处，但它使用了更积极的会计技术来做。

New Jersey officials upped their benefits for current and retired state employees and teachers by 9 percent on June 29. That was just in time for workers to begin enjoying the increase before this month's state elections, when all 120 members of the Republican-controlled state legislature were up for reelection. Under the law, the multiplier for state and local public employees and teachers jumps from 1.667 percent times years of service to 1.818 percent. That results in a $5.2 billion increase in New Jersey's accrued liability.

The new benefits will cost the state $101 million a year, which will come out of the surplus. Should the surplus run out, which legislators expect will happen in ten years, the state will be forced to resume making contributions to the pension funds. New Jersey stopped writing checks to its funds as of July 1, 1999.

再一次，过去的强大的投资收益正在资助这种政治礼物。截至2000年6月30日截至2000年6月30日，新泽西州投资司监督该国的公共养老基金，返回11.9％;超过三年，平均每年16.8％;超过五年，年均年均17.7％。到2000年6月，这些增长推动计划的平滑资金地位为109.5％。

“我不认为我们支付这种增加的能力是一个问题，只是因为在过去的五年中投资增益一直如此戏剧，”新泽西州的养老金和福利司主任托马斯布莱恩说。“这个想法是利用这种盈余。”

新泽西州是如何选择这样做的，结果很有启发性。平滑对基金有利也有弊：随着市值攀升，国有资产增长滞后。在下降的过程中，平滑起到支撑值的作用。新泽西州正从资金不足的深谷中爬出来（早在1995年，它的资金只有88.9%），为了增加福利，它选择了忽略正常的平滑过程来拥抱市场价值。它选择通过比较1999年的资产和2000年的负债来计算盈余。

New Jersey reckoned its 1999 assets at $58.9 billion, versus $48.6 billion in liabilities as of June 30, 2000. Including $5.2 billion in higher liability costs as a result of the benefit hike, New Jersey's liabilities are now closer to $58.6 billion. The latest market value? $54.1 billion, as of June 29. That leaves its funded status at 92.3 percent.

根据新泽西州立法服务办公室2001年7月11日的一份报告，“养老金资产被重新估价，以反映其截至1999年6月30日的全部市场价值。”重估产生的较高资产价值被用来抵消因增加退休福利乘数而产生的额外负债。”

养老金和福利部的布莱恩为新泽西州改变其正常的五年平稳损益的决定辩护“我们使用了相当保守的平滑，”他说，“所以这是一种让员工参与的方式。”

Bryan dismisses the contention that the fund is now underfunded and says he is confident the state will not need to increase its contributions to the retirement system for at least the next 18 months. "Thereafter, it is going to depend on the performance of the economy and the stock market."

“他们选择了1999年的数字非常方便，”新泽西州立法服务办公室的预算和财务人员艾伦古尼说，他批评徒步旅行。“我们坐在养老金计划中坐在这部大型过剩的资金上，即立法者正在欣赏它的氛围。”

New Jersey is no stranger to unfunded liabilities - between 1994 and 1998, the state reduced contributions to its public pension funds by $4 billion, resulting in a $4.2 billion liability. As part of a complex plan to refinance that liability, former New Jersey governor Christie Whitman pushed through a $2.9 billion pension bond offering in 1997. That led directly to the pension fund's surplus.

对于宾夕法尼亚州和新泽西州这两个工会的大本营来说，从来没有任何问题，盈余属于谁：州工人。北卡罗来纳州和弗吉尼亚州的立法者采取了不同的策略：对他们来说，盈余属于纳税人，而不是公共雇员。

In January newly elected North Carolina Governor Michael Easley declared a fiscal emergency and seized the pension surplus when it became clear that North Carolina was facing an $850 million shortfall in its budget for the fiscal year ended June 30, 2001. It was the state's worst fiscal十年的危机。伊斯利，民主党，二月与6月至6月至北卡罗来纳州北卡罗来纳州教师和州雇员退休系统的所有预定国家捐款。不错捐款的价值：1.51亿美元。

The governor argued that the retirement system could comfortably afford the contribution cutback because it was 106.4 percent funded. That number reflects values as of the end of 1999, when the state last calculated its funded status.

"By actuarial standards, it is unsound," says Michael Williamson, North Carolina's deputy treasurer and the director of the state's retirement system. "But will $150 million break the system? No."

Williamson points out that the fund's actuaries predict that if the cuts to the system are not restored, the diversion of $151 million, compounded by interest, will cost the retirement system 33 basis points annually over the next nine years. In comparison, a 1 percent increase in benefits for, say, cost of living would cost the system 28 basis points. "If you ask the retirees if that 1 percent is a big deal, they'll say yes," Williamson says.

此外，该基金今日盈余是值得怀疑的。“这是一个公平的假设，即我们的平衡不会成为他们过去的余额，”威廉姆森说。“我们的投资回报已经下降。”截至2001年6月30日（最近可用的数字），北卡罗来纳州的资产的市场价值为445亿美元，从1月份的高489亿美元下降。该州最近的责任图返回了1999年12月31日，当时它达到457亿美元。如果债务自1999年以来每年增长10％，这将使北卡罗来纳州目前的负债价格为549亿美元。它的新资金状态？大约83％。威廉姆森争议这个数字。“即使在市场的低迷中，我们将在今年晚些时候出现的新估值号码时，我们将被过度使用，”他说。 "I don't anticipate that we will need to increase contributions to the fund anytime soon."

How's that? Smoothing will ease the blow of the downturn in the markets, and the state can be aggressive in its liabilities calculation. But the fund is almost certainly not as healthy as it was two years ago.

“这些是前所未有的，有点不稳定的时间，”威廉姆森说。“这是我们历史上第一次我们有未分配的收益。很难说出适当的行动。这样的持续行为将导致我们关注基金的长期稳定和健康。“

伊斯利州长在赌明年经济会反弹，但谁知道这场赌会有什么回报呢？

北卡罗来纳州雇员协会在三月份起诉该州，称该州对该系统进行了“非法搜查”，称Easley无权扣留这笔资金。一位州法官在五月份驳回了诉讼。西恩克对此判决提出上诉。

“这开创了一个非常危险的先例，一个州长可以篡夺大会的权力，并把预定的资金投入退休基金，”SEANC执行董事达纳·科普（Dana Cope）说。

Virginia came close to raiding its pension surplus; ultimately, legislators backed off.

弗吉尼亚州弗吉尼亚州长詹姆斯·吉尔莫尔（詹姆斯）詹姆斯·吉尔莫尔提出了一项，将有效地将弗吉尼亚退休系统的6340万美元转移到预算的其他部分，加速了他的宠物政治项目的阶段，消除了弗吉尼亚的所以 -叫车税，车辆上的个人财产税。该提案作为对2000美元预算481亿美元的581亿美元的修正案的更大辩论的一部分。

从本质上说，吉尔摩提议加快削减捐款，原计划于今年7月1日生效，并将其追溯至2000年7月1日。2000年至2001年，国家对该系统的捐款为6.02%，2001年至2002年，这一比例将降至4.24%。毕竟，VRS的盈余在召唤：截至2000年6月30日，该系统的资金投入为105%。

Ed Burton，然后仍然是受托人董事会主席，2月2日袭击了立法机关，袭击了Gilmore的举动。Burton写道，这将是“从基金本身直接缩减”。“这里的趋势是清晰令人震惊的。法律中概述的资金的完整性是受这些行动破坏的相当危险。”

最终，突袭并不是被伯顿的威胁停止，而是通过将州长和立法机关绘制到VRS基金的威胁开始：股票市场。自去年6月以来，当该基金的投资组合达到420亿美元时，它已降至352亿美元，价值下降13％。5月，参议院的财务委员会表示，它不会支持Gilmore的机动，以重新推出对VRS的贡献，因为系统无法承受削减。

伯顿的主席任期已经结束,前女友pects another raid on the system next year. "These folks always come after the system, because there's a lot of money there," he says. "$36 billion is an awfully juicy target when you're looking for a couple of hundred million dollars."

"These are public policy choices," says Moody's Kurtter. "My question is, How do decisions regarding the pension fund affect the bottom line of the state budget? If a state has to increase its contributions to the pension fund at a time when its revenues are falling, that will probably mean it won't be able to increase spending in other areas, like education or health care. These are the choices policymakers have to make." Or have already made. A badly managed retirement system can not in itself cause a state's fiscal collapse. But it can certainly cause severe financial stress, as every credit rating analyst knows. "Management of these pension liabilities is a factor in every sponsor's overall rating," says Parry Young, S&P's director of public finance ratings.

Back in 1998 he predicted that as many pension systems approached fully funded status, a "hidden danger" would appear: intensified demands for improved benefits, which could cause state plans to run unfunded liabilities. In many states those demands have since been satisfied. The question now: How much longer will the dangers remain hidden?



盈余政治

Increasing pension benefits or decreasing plan contributions can wreak havoc with a state's finances for years to come. Just take a look at what happened in West Virginia and Louisiana.

In the late 1980s and early 1990s, West Virginia's legislature slashed the state's contributions to the West Virginia Teachers' Retirement System to help cover major shortfalls in its budget. At the same time, West Virginia doled out generous pay hikes to those same teachers, vastly inflating its pension liabilities. That dangerous combination produced a $3.8 billion unfunded pension liability that still plagues the state, despite strong investment returns. To help shore up the fund, West Virginia intends to float a $4 billion bond offering sometime in the next 12 months, which would quadruple the state's debt load.

“[前总督拱门]在20世纪80年代后期提交的预算没有包含对教师退休系统的足够资金的任何东西，无论是在精算的基础上，还是根据法律中的资金公式衡量，”Thomas Heywood说，曾担任摩尔继任者的工作人员，Gaston Caperton。“我们仍然感受到今天这些决定的余震。”

路易斯安那州在整个20世纪80年代早期做出的类似决定的重担下工作，当时立法者投票决定增加教师福利，而没有全额资助教师。该州发现其信用评级在上世纪90年代初被下调，主要原因是其退休制度管理不善。这反过来又推高了国家的借贷成本。尽管在20世纪90年代的大部分时间里，该州的投资回报率都很高，但该州的养老金资产仍然只占其负债的75%。

In January Louisiana Governor M.J. (Mike) Foster Jr. proposed refinancing the $5.6 billion unfunded liability, which isn't scheduled to be paid off until 2029, with a $6 billion debt offering that he argued would free up $135 million to fund other state priorities. "When all the complications are stripped away, this is nothing more than refinancing a home at lower interest rates," he told legislators in a March speech.

但国家立法者没有买这个论点。他们认为该计划不必要地膨胀了国家的债务，总督支持。尽管如此，寄发誓言明年返回问题。