The Best of the Buyside

Could there be a more difficult time to invest in stocks? Confronting markets roiled by war and a wobbling U.S. economy, research analysts face a daunting task. Identifying the rare big stock winners and avoiding the far more commonplace losers have never been tougher - or more critical.

Not everyone has made an easy transition from bull to bear market. Brokerage analysts have been pelted by criticism in the past year - excoriated for investment banking conflicts and mocked for tech-stock cheerleading that continued even after the Nasdaq composite index crumbled. Even so, a number of their less-heralded buy-side counterparts have managed to gain in stature despite - or, more likely, because of - the down market. Working in relative obscurity at such powerful firms as Fidelity Management & Research Co., State Street Research & Management Co. and T. Rowe Price Associates, they've counseled their portfolio managers to snap up shares of Affiliated Computer Services, Chevron Corp. and Tenet Healthcare Corp., all of which have defied the market's downdraft. More important, these researchers were early to sound the alert on names like Cisco Systems, Nokia Corp. and Providian Financial Corp. On the following pages we profile 11 of these analysts.

领先的购买私人在销售方面具有一定的优势。他们的公司控制数十甚至数百亿美元，让他们可以获得世界任何地方可用的最佳定量信息。许多人都有广泛的经验和关于市场周期的知识，销售销售缺失往往缺乏。一定数量的数十年来，通常涵盖相同的股票，持续相当大的公司，并有信心和安全来采取长期观点。没有投资银行职责和营销家务，他们可以专注于找到最佳股票 - 并留下最糟糕的股票。国家街道研究与管理股权研究总监Clifford Krauss表示，重申了拥有独立观点的重要性。“

Today's bear market actually plays to the strengths of the best buy-side analysts. They've always excelled at the nitty-gritty of assessing risk. "Now there's a greater emphasis on cash flows and balance statements and asking whether or not a company will actually survive," says Perry Traquina, director of global industry research at Wellington Management Co. That wasn't the case during the go-go 1990s, when the roaring bull market encouraged researchers to take ever-bigger risks.

The bear market isn't the only reason that it's important for firms to have seasoned analysts. Since October 2000, when the Securities and Exchange Commission enacted Regulation Fair Disclosure to ensure that all investors receive the same information at the same time, the quantity and nature of information has been transformed.

“丽晶公司改变了景观，并导致了很多关于披露的异常，”krauss指出。“有些公司甚至不会让我们像商业的语气一样。”现在，公司对Doling Nooling信息更加怯懦，收集和解释自己的数据的独立研究人员比以往任何时候都更有价值。

Aside from giving top researchers a chance to shine, the market downturn has had another tangible impact: Major asset managers are now attracting a larger, smarter crop of job candidates. Once, many of these aspiring analysts wouldn't consider anything but a highly lucrative sell-side research slot. As recently as two years ago, T. Rowe Price often found itself playing to half-empty rooms when it recruited junior analysts at the top U.S. business schools, says William Stromberg, director of equity research. "Since the bubble burst, we've seen bright, bright people. That feels good," he says. Given the state of the markets and the bad press sell-siders have received in the past year, the era of good feeling should last for quite a while.

To recognize the brightest researchers working for money managers, Institutional Investor asked the Wall Street analysts who received votes for our 2000 All-America Research Team - more than 2,100 of them - to name their best buy-side counterparts. About 475 sell-side analysts from 74 firms responded.

Following are profiles of the analysts mentioned most often in ten broad industry groups. This feature was overseen by Senior Editor Jane B. Kenney and compiled by Senior Associate Editor William Gaston and Associate Editor Emily Fleckner; the profiles were written by Jeanne Burke, Kerry Hannon, Ben Mattlin and Mike Sisk, who also wrote the introduction.

Gordon Crawford
Capital Research and Management Co.
媒体

媒体上的每个幼崽记者都迅速了解了Gordon Crawford的电话号码：54岁的分析师，他在这个名单上制作了第九个外观，是该国最着名，最尊敬的媒体Mavens之一。

Crawford takes the long view. "What I enjoy best is looking for long-term securities with tailwinds behind them," he says. Like virtually all Capital analysts and portfolio managers, he takes big positions and hangs on. No surprise, then, that Crawford's top stock picks don't change much from year to year.

AOL Time Warner仍然是一个特殊的亲爱的，尽管媒体股票已故被击中了这一事实。除1983年之后，当他在公司的Atari Group Blew倾销时，Crawford自1974年以来，Crawford在AOL Time Warner（或其前体，时代和华纳通信）拥有股份。“AOL Time Warner有资产。他们有很好的管理层和强大的资产负债表。你想要什么？“克劳福德说。

多年来，他在媒体业务的两个叙述中一直是一个强大的信徒：垂直整合和全球化。因此，他喜欢制造和分发娱乐和信息的公司。该名册包括沃尔特迪斯尼有限公司，新闻公司和维亚康康，以及AOL时代华纳。

1969年韦斯利亚大学毕业，克劳福德于1971年赢得了弗吉尼亚大学的商业管理研究生院的MBA。同年，他向西前往洛杉矶，自从此生活。

From his first days at Capital, Crawford has followed media and entertainment companies. "I love the business because people are thirsty for information and entertainment. I never wanted to stray."

知道Crawford的一位华尔街分析师表示，许多研究人员仰视他。“戈迪的调味般的调味般的调味般给了他一个独特的视角，”她说，“甚至更好，戈迪给你回电话。”

Eric Wong
Angelo，Gordon＆Co.
Macro

在美国股市的潮流市场中，1990亿美元的敞篷管部门去年起飞，因为公司作为新资本欢迎来源的公司转向班级。新问题总计为600亿美元，高于1999年的440亿美元。今年的前九个月，新的敞篷车总计740亿美元。投资者已被一系列新功能所吸引，包括呼叫选项，零级优惠券和零级优惠券和偶然转换，称为“CO-CO”拓扑。“这是最热门的新问题市场，”Eric Wong说，31.“你必须留在你的比赛之上。”

转德尔斯市场的一个相对较小的球员之一，黄先生一直在改善自己的举措，因为四年前他签署了作为基于洛杉矶的TCW资产管理有限公司的分析师。在5月，他搬到了纽约一家替代资产经理的Angelo，Gordon＆Co.。

At Angelo Gordon, Wong specializes in convertibles arbitrage. "With convertibles arbitrage I can limit my exposure to either the equity or the fixed-interest component, or both if I like," he explains. "I'm also now able to take short positions, which means I can trade more freely and more often than when I was involved in traditional convertibles mutual funds."

A New York native with an MBA from UCLA, Wong isn't afraid to break with the pack. "We disagreed about a company called Carriage Services," recalls one analyst, referring to the Houston-based funeral home chain. Wong felt Carriage Services was undervalued. "Eric stuck with his convictions." The stock dropped 71 percent in 2000, but this year it's up 325 percent through October 1. Though Wong enjoys his investment freedom at Angelo Gordon, he misses attending Lakers games and running and biking in the mountains near Los Angeles. "Now I run around the Central Park reservoir and watch the Yankees," he says.

Bruce Glazer
Wellington Management Co.
Technology

"Whenever I'm going to meet management, I call six or seven of the top buy-side analysts to see if they want to come along," says one sell-sider. Bruce Glazer's name is always on the list.

After graduating from Cornell University in 1990, Glazer cut his teeth as a health care analyst at Kidder, Peabody & Co. and Montgomery Securities. But he never liked the investment banking responsibilities that went with the job. So he went back to school, earning his MBA from the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School, and joined Wellington four years ago. "I wanted to get to the buy side," says Glazer, 33. "The buy side is all about picking stocks and making money."

他确实如此。说一位了解他的一位经纪分析师，“他谈到购买和销售股票时，他有伟大的估值纪律，当建模困难时，他愿意接受智能风险，但他认为估值令人沮丧。”

Glazer, who covers about 100 names, is not afraid to reexamine the assumptions behind his buys and sells. "He knows why he likes a stock, and he knows why he might be wrong," says one fan. Although "you need conviction" as a stock picker, Glazer says, "you also need to know the pressure points and critical variables so you can react quickly. Always questioning your investment thesis is healthy."

Analysts point to a stellar Glazer call on the outsourcing company Affiliated Computer Services. Last fall, Glazer says, investors underestimated Affiliated's prospects at a time when two sluggish parts of its business, ATM processing and information technology staffing, were being sold off so the company could focus on its business-process outsourcing. Glazer added to his position in the summer of 2000, when the stock was trading in the mid-30s. It sold recently for 81.

Denis Walsh
State Street Research & Management Co.
Energy

作为一个父亲的四个孩子在7岁之间months and 7 years, Denis Walsh knows how to juggle competing claims on his time. Somehow he manages to work, coach Little League and still field the 200 e-mail messages that come into his office every day.

沃尔什研究资源的广度和多样性占他的大部分成功，例如经纪分析师。“丹尼斯永远不会依赖他自己的思考，以考虑其他观点，”熟悉他的工作的卖家说。

This comprehensive approach includes a combination of top-down and bottom-up research that starts, Walsh says, by "trying to get the macro scenario right." Once he's comfortable with his macro outlook, he digs into the fundamentals of 40 individual stocks.

该系统在2月份特别好，当天然气的需求以不合时宜的低水平运行时，而且库存累积，通常在4月1日之前没有开始，令人惊讶的是。“我们担心的是，天然气价格将受到压力，”沃尔什召回。因此，三月他向勘探和生产库存以及石油服务股票的推荐重量减少，这两者都将受到天然气价格下降的影响。他通过了一项防守战略，强调了大型综合公司，这些公司具有更多元化的收入流。

开关已退款。平均一体化的石油和天然气公司的股票在9月11日之前的六个月内举行了另一组，例如，雪佛龙公司的六个月，较上身为9％，而标准差和穷人的500指数均为相同的数量。“他的逆势观点是最近赚钱的唯一方法，”围栏街头粉丝。

41岁的沃尔什还发现天然气失去妈妈rket share to nuclear power and coal. "People weren't thinking about competing fuels at all," says a sell-side analyst. What tipped Walsh off to the rise in coal and nuclear consumption? "In the spring a number of coal companies visited our offices about doing their IPOs, and they were telling us they were burning 6 percent more coal this year than last year," he says.

亚瑟·塞西尔
T. Rowe Price Associates
Consumer

在30年的股权分析师在巴尔的摩的T. Rowe价格中，Arthur Cecil已开发出“了解股票的内脏，直观的方式，框架的巨大能力框架实际重要的是，”解释说。他不会迷失在可以压倒一个新的MBA的细节。“他距离细菌和不重要的距离远远距离，”华尔街研究员增加了一段时间。

对于塞西尔，59名来自Loyola学院的MBA，关键是理解管理。“如果我能够对他们努力做出正确的判断以及他们是否在正确的轨道上，这是对投资结论是正确的，”他解释道。

Cecil's deep knowledge and insight allow him to step away from the crowd. When shares of Clorox Co. were pummeled in January and February of this year, after the company said that it would miss its earnings target for the quarter and for fiscal 2001, many analysts focused on the gloomy sales and earnings forecasts for the consumer-products manufacturer. But Cecil knew that Zwilling J.A. Henckels, the German producer of high-end knives, had owned 27 percent of Clorox's shares since 1974; he figured that if Henckels held on, the stock would soon find a bottom. It did. Shares bottomed out at about 31 in March and traded recently in the high 30s. "Art had a completely different angle from other analysts, but he was focused on what was going to move the stock," says a Wall Street analyst.

Anna Dopkin
T. Rowe Price Associates
金融机构

Soon after she joined T. Rowe Price in 1996, Anna Dopkin issued a major buy recommendation on Mercury Finance Co., an auto finance company. The call blew up in her face when Mercury understated losses and eventually filed for bankruptcy. "It was a costly mistake," she recalls, "but I learned at that point that you've really got to understand the numbers."

Indeed. Today Dopkin, 34, is renowned for her own quantitative modeling, which relies largely on original research and is distinguished by its attention to detail. "She's a great mix of detailed research and trading sense," says one Wall Street fan.

A 1989 graduate of the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School who went on to structure and trade collateralized mortgage obligations at Goldman, Sachs & Co., Dopkin is devoted to her models. "Some of my best research calls have been off of heavy-duty bottom-up research, poring over the 10-Q and 10-Ks," she says. Case in point: Dopkin put a sell rating on Providian Financial Corp. this summer because she was sure that the company's quality of earnings was deteriorating. She sold most of her shares in the 40s and 50s before other analysts downgraded the stock, which closed in late October at 3.94.

卖家说，Dopkin经常呼叫他们询问她可以插入她的新车型。一般来说，她将她的华尔街同事保留在他们的脚趾上。“安娜让我想成为一个更好的分析师，”一个卖家说。“她非常了解，你必须做好准备。”

Admirers applaud two of her recent calls: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The stocks came under pressure last year when both competitors and customers complained that the agencies wielded too much power and several politicians questioned whether they should retain their ties to the government. Dopkin believed the political risk was modest; she took huge stakes in both stocks in the summer of 2000. Both are up substantially.

“如果我把自己的钱给任何投资者给了自己的钱，我会把它交给Anna Dopkin，”一名投资银行研究员说。这是终极华尔街赞美。

Clifford Ransom II
State Street Research & Management Co.
Capital goods

With 30 years of experience and more than 100 companies in his territory, Clifford Ransom has an enviably deep and broad perspective on the capital goods sector.

"A meeting with him is always an energetic dialogue," says one Wall Street analyst. "It's a search for the truth, in a way."

When Ransom meets company managements, he doesn't stop at the top. He visits plants and attends division meetings to chat with regional and local management teams. "He tries to burrow in and see what's going on," notes one admirer. Ransom, who has a BA from Princeton University and an MBA from Loyola College, explains that talking to the second and third layers of managers allows him to "double- or triple-check" that the plans of top management are being executed. "They're also the people who will be running the company in five years," he says.

Known for his snow-white beard, colorful shirts and ebullient personality, Ransom, 55, covers a broader range of industries - from electrical equipment and machinery to aerospace and defense - than his sell-side counterparts do. "If you bash or bend metal, I'm probably interested in your company," he quips. He puts his knowledge to use selecting stocks for State Street's analyst-run mutual funds. "We do write tickets and have decision-making responsibility," Ransom says.

One of his best picks was Danaher Corp., a toolmaker that he first started buying ten years ago at about 2. Since then the stock has outperformed the Standard & Poor's 500 index by more than 800 percent, recently trading at 55.

Two years ago Ransom relocated from a luxury condominium overlooking Boston Harbor to a 44-foot motor yacht anchored in the harbor. "I'm not a swashbuckling guy," he says. "It's a protest against real estate prices."

史蒂文卡尔霍恩
Fidelity Management & Research Co.
Consumer

Like other buy-side analysts, Steven Calhoun publishes research reports for companywide use. Unlike many of his colleagues, he also plays his hand as a stock picker. For the past two years, he's managed Fidelity's $55.5 million Select Retailing Portfolio.

Calhoun focuses on about 25 large-cap food and drug retailers and oversees four analysts assigned to specialty retailers and restaurants. In a tough market his fund returned -16.7 percent for the year ended September 30, compared with -20.4 percent for the Standard & Poor's 500 index.

分析师将投资方法描述为“以合理的价格增长”。他正在寻找周转故事以及零售集团中最好的概念创作者。“我没有归类为一种风格，”他说。

Calhoun joined Fidelity in 1993, right after graduating from Dartmouth College. After only two years in the consumer-goods sector, the 30-year-old has impressed his sell-side counterparts with his willingness to keep an open mind. "He's detail-oriented," says a Wall Street analyst. Explains a second sell-sider: "When a company is out of favor but has a positive rate of change, he will step out on a limb, even if the name is unpopular to own. He's willing to make relatively controversial decisions."

Of course, it never hurts to be a nice guy. Says a sell-side fan: "Steve Calhoun is approachable and amiable. He's not impressed with himself."

TEE Taggart.
Wellington Management Co.
Basic materials

少数美国分析师知道任何由中国商人青睐的汉语，但哈里特（TEE）惠洛顿管理有限公司的哈丽特（TEE）塔加特掌握了3,500个10,000个字符。“在上海开展业务非常有帮助，”她说。

The 53-year-old Taggart, who helps manage several Wellington sector funds, actively monitors 200 chemicals and environmental services companies and claims to keep tabs on 400 more. "Our mandate is to know every company and every country in our industry assignment," she says. An 18-year buy-side veteran, Taggart worked in venture capital, public finance and banking before settling at Wellington in 1983.

“最大的机会躺在正在变得物质更好或更具物质的公司中，而且它没有反映在股票价格上，”她说。为了寻找机会，哈佛大学和马萨诸塞州理工学院毕业生追求她描述为“觅食和狩猎”的过程。这是基本的，自下而上的研究：她访问了工厂网站，她与公司的客户和供应商以及其管理人员谈判。

"Tee is extremely smart and well plugged into her companies, and she always has a fresh point of view," says one Wall Street admirer, citing a recent discussion with Taggart about the shift from glass to plastic bottles. Although the sell-sider anticipated growth potential in plastic beer bottles, Taggart was able to explain that beer is more light- and oxygen-sensitive than soft drinks and thus requires a stronger, less permeable plastic, which is still under development.

Whether the subject is beer bottles or the current bear market, Taggart takes the long view. She notes that most of the companies she follows were ignored in the late 1990s frenzy for New Economy names and now benefit from a renewed interest in old-line manufacturers, despite the fact that they are especially vulnerable to a recession. "Clearly, they are very GDP-sensitive," Taggart says.

Robert Gensler
T. Rowe Price Associates
Communications

During seven years of playing the risk arbitrage game at Salomon Brothers, Robert Gensler developed an instinct about stocks that has stayed with him. "I lived on the trading desk, and it gave me a deep sense of the market," the analyst says.

他的卖方粉丝满意。“我发现他无法回答他所涵盖的公司，”熊，斯特纳斯·斯德尔森·科尔科恩说。““他知道这项业务和人民，了解趋势。他把它整合在一起。”

虽然乘坐超过8亿美元的投资组合的Gensler，但在1995年之前没有开始电信服务和设备公司，他显然是对他的主题掌握。MORNAYSTAR为他的媒体和电信基金提供了五星级：该基金于10月下旬到目前为止下降了14％，而纳斯达克电信指数下跌52％。

After receiving his undergraduate degree in business from the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School, Gensler spent a year at the London School of Economics and earned his MBA at Stanford University. Before arriving on Wall Street, he spent two and a half years as a Peace Corps volunteer in Botswana, helping to set up small businesses.

The 44-year-old Gensler spends about 120 days a year on the road. "That's what it takes to get the big picture," he says. "I think I'm smart, but I'm not that smart. I know a lot of people, and they don't get a lot by me. This is a people business." A well-regarded Wall Street telecom researcher concurs. "He just knows how to ask the right questions, and he has a global perspective on the telecom industry."

Last year, of course, the correct perspective was deeply pessimistic, and Gensler was more bearish than most. He boasts that his fund never owned Cisco Systems, down 62 percent so far this year, or Nokia Corp., down 61 percent. Among Gensler's large holdings, Western Wireless Corp. fell 17 percent, Millicom International Cellular declined 50 percent, and Sprint Corp. jumped 29 percent. "The smartest thing I've done all year is to be cautious," Gensler says. "I got out of emerging carriers and stayed away from broadband."

Norman Fidel
联盟资本管理
卫生保健

When Norman Fidel took his first job as a health care analyst, doctors still made house calls and no M.D. had heard the word "capitation." Some 32 years later Fidel, 56, boasts a historical perspective on the U.S. health care system that is virtually unrivaled on the Street.

"He's seen it all," says one observer. "There are few people left on Wall Street with his skills for critical thinking. He has trained a lot of people and is so hands-on himself that he creates a way of doing things. It's old-fashioned research, meeting management and plain hard work."

今天,菲德尔说,“报销t的名字he game. It touches so many things in health care and is the key to the future of the industry.

医疗保健”原则是一个完美的例子。我买了我t two years ago when it was trading in the teens. It's now hovering at 60 a share. Revenue per admission has soared from 2 percent to 10 percent. And managed-care providers are allowing longer hospital stays." Tenet Healthcare Corp., in fact, is one of Fidel's longtime holdings.

卫生保健stocks as a group have turned in just an average performance in 2001: down 16 percent year-to-date, compared with 16.3 percent for the Standard & Poor's 500 index.

But baby boomers are starting to age, and that means increased revenues for health care providers in coming years, Fidel says. "It's about demographics."

一个康涅狄格州本土，菲德尔毕业于马萨诸塞州巴布森学院，并在纽约大学赢得了MBA。他于1969年加入了前欧文信托公司公司，并于11年后搬到了Eberstadt资产管理。当联盟资本于1985年收购该公司时，他留在船上。今天，他是铅卫生保健分析师和初级保健基金经理，负责担任200亿美元的资产。

From his early days as an analyst, Fidel has had a soft spot for well-managed companies that have for one reason or another fallen on tough times. "I do like companies that have stumbled," Fidel says.

He's never been a big trader. Typically, he'll hold a stock for 12 to 18 months. "I buy a stock because of where it can go down the road," says Fidel. "I buy for the future."