点击这里查看整个2002年亚洲研究团队的结果研究与排名本网站的一部分。
中国日益增长的影响力开始重塑亚洲权力的经济平衡。它还重新定义了公司策略和该地区的股权研究。
“如果你不知道在中国发生了什么，”美林林亚亚洲研究负责人匈奴金斯说：“你不知道什么。”金可能犯有夸张，毕竟，往往混乱的中国股票市场只是十年的历史，并仍然基本上对外国投资者封闭，但他当然这些天捕捉到亚太研究部门的普遍情绪。
中国,或它的影子,到处都是。经济学家in Tokyo, Hong Kong and Singapore spent much of the past year trying to figure out how their local economies can cope with competition from China for export markets and foreign investment. Researchers in New York and London have to gauge China's demand for steel, petrochemicals, oil and natural gas to assess these global markets. Which Taiwanese companies will profit from China's admission to the World Trade Organization? Which Thai manufacturers will get trampled? Does General Motors Corp. have a sound "China strategy" or none at all?
为更多这些查询，投资公司正在为投资者提供引人注目的中国研究产品。“我们希望普通话在摩根士丹利走廊中响起，”摩根斯坦利亚洲研究努力负责人罗伯特·沃克斯说。他补充说，公司的名字应该是“与中国同义”。
Responding to requests for information about China has become an essential part of an Asia researcher's life. Goldman Sachs (Asia) oil and gas and chemicals analyst and co-head of research Paul Bernard estimates that his China-related research has tripled in three years, to about 70 percent of his total workload. China now exerts such an influence on prices in his sectors that it "feeds into a view on stocks, whether they be in Asia, Europe or the U.S." His team's recent buys on South Korea's LG Chem and Taiwan's Formosa Plastics Corp. were both based in large part on growing Chinese demand for their petrochemicals products.
考虑J.P.摩根证券的香港的经验，总部设施消费品分析师Charles Dutton。研究人员最近必须评估香港的扩建计划，总部设施零售商ESPRIT亚洲控股和韩国折扣链谢塞戈公司在饱和度附近的大多数发达的亚洲市场，都在寻求中国长期可持续增长。ESPRIT希望在未来几年内从中国实现超过1亿美元的销售，而新山羊计划在未来八年内为上海开设两家商店，以便在未来八年内创建40外卖。
“暴露于中国被认为是一个重要的积极积极，因为它是亚洲唯一记录强大经济增长的国家之一。投资者需求巨大，但曝光较大的公司数量非常有限，”荷兰顿说。两股股市在中国计划的新闻中飙升，自2015年代以来，Esprit已增加了63％，以4月中旬达到14.70港元（1.88美元）。在去年巨大的收益之后，Shinsegae在那段时间里升起了40％以上。
But do their strategies make any sense? There are few precedents for looking at foreign ventures in China. The legal system offers little guidance to new businesses. And no one is entirely sure what the local demand for a given product or service is. It will be left to pioneering researchers like Dutton and his cohorts to figure out whether these initiatives will work.
当然，中国介绍了所有有问题的分析师以及机会。关于来自跨域贷款利润的所有内容的本地公司不完整，不准确或不存在的披露是每个亚洲研究员的生命的祸根。一些中国高管，瑞银武术武术学习报告，“在官方发布前一天不要将盈利警告视为为时已晚。”
这些失败的后果可能是分析师和投资者的破坏性。oneTime股票市场宠物广东科龙电器有限公司是广州的白品制造商，去年晚些时候遇到了麻烦，当时香港证券交易所暂停三个月，未能透露，它已推进了126亿人民币（152亿美元））到父母，广东科隆（荣盛）。随着查询的消息开始泄漏，股票下降了31％。当债务结果小于最初预期时，它后来上升了。“您可以投资的国内公司，但他们往往有点可疑，”摩根士丹利的消费者分析师Angela Moh（1号队的领导者）表示。“你必须非常小心。”
并非所有这些研究都是有利可图的。摩根士丹利的vaudry称之为“丧失领导者”，因为近期投资是近期投资，而另一个研究院长更加巧妙地表明利润撒谎“只是超越了地平线”。瑞银瓦斯堡亚洲研究负责人迈克尔Oertli致迈克尔·奥德利致力于“害怕失踪火车”。然而，在20世纪90年代，对外国投资者的兴趣反复闪现这一巨大的贫困国家未能转化为有意义的商机。
Still, research directors and investors believe that China's recent entry into the WTO marks a new chapter in the story. As a result, they're shifting resources to the mainland. Morgan Stanley plans to put four or five analysts in Shanghai this year, and UBS's Oertli has told his Hong Kong,based China analysts that they can move to the firm's Shanghai office any time they want. CLSA Emerging Markets, BNP Paribas Peregrine and HSBC Securities are negotiating to form joint ventures with local firms.
Until they've established better roots, researchers are sponsoring investor tours to visit Chinese companies and meet with government officials. The most common destinations? Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou and Shenzhen. As Vaudry says, "Many Asia analysts are in danger of becoming tour guides."
Much of this activity is based on prospective riches that may not materialize. Investment bankers estimate that China-related IPOs and equity issues could raise $200 billion over the next decade. The Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share markets list more than 1,000 companies, with a combined capitalization of $500 billion, versus $494 billion for the Hong Kong exchange. Commission revenue from China's A-share markets now rivals that from Asia's other major brokerage markets: South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore. "China is probably the largest investment banking story in the world," says CLSA research chief Edmund Bradley. "It's not easy making money, but people have to position for the long haul."
虽然2001年新闻的步伐速度放缓，但中国股票宇宙继续扩大。11月玻璃制造商浙江玻璃公司成为首批私营（政府所有权不到50％）中国公司，在香港证券交易所主板上市，当时筹集了5800万美元。同月，中国铝业公司是世界第三大铝合金炼油厂，在香港和纽约中列出，筹集了3.5亿美元。
与其他地方一样，投资者仍然是研究和投资银行之间任何潜在的利益冲突。一位新加坡基金经理表示，市场状况已经如此难以理顾，经纪人一直在寻找挤出一些收入的机会。“你看到升级的股票，然后一个月后，同一个银行试图放弃股票，”他说。Schroder投资管理的研究总监Toby Hudson监督了50亿美元的亚洲股市，说最近努力清除冲突的令人鼓舞，但“当投资银行交易流程的投资银行交易时，Litmus测试将会来。然后我们会看到如果行动像言语一样大声说话。“
That test may soon arrive , Asia stocks got off to a fast start in 2002. In South Korea the Kospi surged 32 percent through early April, while Taiwan gained 10 percent. Even devastated markets in Southeast Asia (see Emerging Markets, page 87) rallied in the first quarter. Indonesia was up 31 percent, Thailand 30 percent, Malaysia 18 percent, the Philippines 17 percent and Singapore 10 percent. Says UBS's Oertli, "Asia is one of the few places on earth making more money this year than last, over the same time period."
转变不可能有更好的时间。严峻的最后季度（亚洲股票的29％）破坏了2001年的固体年份，导致2001年的亏损6％。加上2000年的30％以上的幻灯片，穷人市场成本为许多专业人士，包括分析师，他们的工作。一名研究领导估计，投资银行于2001年将亚洲员工切片约25％。研究部门的削减可能会更接近10％至15％。Miel Bakker说，Goldman Sachs（Asia）研究的联合主管。“没有人赚得真正的钱，很多人丢钱了。”
The cutbacks no doubt affected the rankings of this year's Asia Research Team. Last year's No. 1 firm, Merrill Lynch, reduced its overall Asia head count by 25 percent and sold its brokerage operation in the Philippines to a management group that renamed it Philippines Equity Partners (which wins a runner-up position in this year's rankings). Following the job cuts, Merrill Lynch slips to fourth this year, with a net reduction of seven positions on the team. Taking the laurels is UBS Warburg, which has been expanding its research coverage worldwide and had already improved its position to No. 2 last year from No. 3 the previous year. In 2002 Credit Suisse First Boston and Morgan Stanley, each of which commands four additional positions on the team, rank second and third, respectively.
Consolidation of investment banking in Asia continues at a rapid pace. Indosuez W.I. Carr Securities withdrew from Asia ex-Japan in November with the loss of 350 jobs. Like Merrill Lynch, HSBC Securities shuttered its operation in the Philippines in November and also departed Indonesia. In August Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein abandoned Asia with the loss of 250 jobs; SG Securities cut its research strength by some 60 percent, to 40 analysts.
谨慎的谨慎空气并没有阻止剧烈的跳跃。最值得注意的是，J.P. Morgan Shagged Bhavin Shah，他们领导了CSFB的第1号，直到2月下旬排名第一的技术/半导体团队。现在，J.P. Morgan的亚太技术研究，Shah是“CSFB的门开启者”，一位研究头说。虽然校长不会发表评论，但莎娜被认为已收到超过200万美元的年度赔偿套餐。他的前老板CSFB研究首席Sung Hwang认为，CSFB的18人科技团队现在由Ashis Kumar（谁领导公司第2号，为印度研究和其一级技术/ IT服务单位），将升到这个场合。这一集叹了叹息，展示了“这一市场的攻击性是多么攻击。”
很少有人不同意，因为对每个人都在中国和亚洲其他地区的争吵。在4月花旗集团/萨洛蒙史密斯巴尼聘请了摩根士丹利的一流股权战略家Ajay Kapur。加入kapur是他的纳伦德拉辛格和伊莱恩楚的双人队。UBS Warburg从ABN AMRO亚洲拉动了Sharon Su（1号台湾团队的领导人和1号技术/硬件团队）。
Still, when it came to hiring, no one matched Deutsche Bank. Starting virtually from scratch, it hired more than 60 analysts in 2001, setting off complaints about its impact on salaries and the viability of the operation. Asia-Pacific ex-Japan equities chief Edouard Peter is unapologetic, saying only four of his hires received above-market packages, and he dismisses predictions that the firm will eventually have to cut back. "If people think we are all of a sudden going to fall apart, then they are not looking at what we've just done," Peter says. The firm, he notes, has grown successfully in Europe, the U.S. and Japan and now is aiming for similar results in Asia. That hasn't stopped the carping: "It will all unravel when guarantees paid to new recruits expire in a year or two," scoffs a rival. Clearly, the competition to provide the best research in China , and all of Asia , has only just begun.
选择球队
要了解最大的机构投资者转向关于亚洲亚洲日本的建议，机构投资亚博赞助欧冠者派出了一个调查问卷，涵盖了超过25个行业类别，投资特生和国家的研究和投资董事，约有400个机构和投资咨询该地区主要投资者的公司。包括在亚洲100号亚洲的金钱经理，我们的亚洲最大的机构基金经理排名;我们还删除了目录和行业数据来源，以确保调查宇宙的完整性。超过一半的这些机构回应了。阵容阵容从去年仍然没有改变。修改包括添加媒体类别，删除互联网类别和技术分离为三个部门：技术/硬件，技术/ IT服务和技术/半导体。此外，我们还重新获得去年的石油和天然气类别，包括化学品，这是一个单独的类别。
Respondents were asked to reply themselves, to survey their money managers or to circulate the questionnaire through their own research departments to poll individual analysts. Those who did not respond were contacted to determine if they would be willing to participate over the telephone. After the questionnaires were returned, our reporters spent weeks interviewing investors to learn more about their choices. In addition, many of the winners were contacted to clarify points that their clients had raised. The names of those surveyed and the institutions they work for are kept confidential to ensure their continuing cooperation.
为了在亚洲亚洲日本排名分析师，我们为两家公司和个人组合选票，因为许多投资者都投了两者。根据受访者的亚洲前日本资产和授予公司或个人（第一，第二，第三，亚军），每次投票为每个投票提供数值分数这些分数用于确定排名。分析师在第三组织者的得分近距离出现时指定了赛跑者。
Determining which analyst should be highlighted in categories where votes are aggregated can be difficult. That task is further complicated in areas, particularly less-developed markets, where sectoral and regional coverage can overlap. In cases where there is a strong favorite or only one analyst tracking a category, that individual is highlighted. But because coverage of many of the categories requires teamwork, our write-ups often contain evaluations of group efforts. In those cases, the head of the squad or the individual analyst receiving the most votes is emphasized. To meet this magazine's production schedule, analysts who switched firms after February 18 are cited at their previous organizations.
排名由在高级编辑Jane B. Kenney和高级助理编亚博赞助欧冠辑Tucker ewing的方向上编制的机构投资者编制。贡献编辑Kevin Hamlin写了概述。记者/研究员Suzanne Ligh and Contribuderd编辑Andrew Bloomenthal，Jeanne Burke，Mary Dubas，Mark Frankel，Ben Mattlin，Scott McMurray和Mike Sisk写道或编辑了所关注的扇区报告。