Looking up

To view the Country Credit Rating results, pleaseclick hereor go to the研究与排名部分of this site.

Cheer up. The recession is ending, terrorism is not a global threat, there is little contagion from troubled countries such as Argentina, and Russia is showing that the fallen can be resurrected. At any rate, those are the rosy messages that appear to be embedded in this spring's country credit survey.

Institutional Investor's semiannual rating of global creditworthiness dropped 1.1 points one year ago and 0.8 points last fall. But this time it declined just 0.4 points, settling at 41.1 on a scale of zero to 100. That compares with a 20-year high of 43.4 achieved in September 2000.

55升的151个国家中至少1 point - the amount considered statistically significant - and 26 fell by at least that amount. By contrast, last time only 22 rose at least 1 point and 70 fell. Moreover, the 0.4-point overall decline was effectively zero when three factors are considered. First,

这版的调查增加了六个低评级的计谋ntries - Azerbaijan, Belize, Cambodia, Laos, Macedonia and Mongolia - that collectively brought down the global average. Second, one major U.S. bank instituted a new methodology that lowered its ratings across the board. And third, one country, Argentina, dropped a whopping 10.9 points, losing almost one third of its rating and lowering the overall average. Yet spillover effects appeared to be of the mildest sort: Argentina's travails (see page 59) led to a modest slide in the ratings of its neighbors and trading partners Brazil (-1.9 points), Paraguay (-1.0) and Uruguay (-0.5). Indeed, the ring fencing of Argentina allowed Latin America's regional rating to actually rise slightly.

在调查中显而易见的乐观涌现。“六个月前，我对近期恢复的前景非常悲观，”伦敦雷曼兄弟的高级国际经济学家Jane Edwards表示。“但最近，人们一直专注于2003年全球经济反弹，而在发达经济体的情况下，大多数人预计今年下半年的增长率更强。”加拿大帝国商务银行的高级经济学家John Krijgsman补充说：“大积极因素是俄罗斯和中国。俄罗斯被视为从死者回来，中国正在与WTO向前发展。”

虽然经济学家似乎越来越乐观，但那些借钱或购买债券的人被广告系列困扰，以便将公司风格的破产法向发展中国家应用于发展中国家。推翻前花旗银行董事长Walter Wriston为期最不发达国家贷款国家的知名理由，不会破产 - 在至少一些资本提供者的心中袭击恐惧。

The region registering the biggest increase in creditworthiness was Western Europe, up 1.8 points. Nineteen of the 20 countries in the region rose, while only one fell: Turkey (-1.3). Five of the survey's top ten gainers were in Western Europe. The regional rating, 84.3, has risen fairly steadily since September 1996 and stands at the highest level in the 23-year history of country credit surveys.

Western Europe's economy did not prove it could grow when the U.S. was in recession - quite the contrary. Even so, respondents were pleased that the transition to the euro seemed to be going so well. The impact was particularly favorable for smaller countries, which are viewed as standing to get the most benefits from a single currency. Portugal rose 3.5 points, and Austria and Greece were each up 2.6 points. Finland climbed 3.1 points, in part reflecting the strong gains of Russia's economy on its eastern flank.

Turkey's well-publicized problems (Institutional Investor, January 2002) accounted for its 1.3-point fall. Nevertheless, the drop was far smaller than the 9.3-point decline in September. Turkey, says CIBC's Krijgsman, "is seen as having strategic importance, so the situation in Afghanistan means that Western support for Turkey is forthcoming and more generous."

东欧玫瑰勉强可辨别0.1分，12个国家长期前进，而两个至少占据了两点。大消息是俄罗斯，上涨5.4点，以获得调查的最大收益。芬兰银行家说：“经济的最近发展和市场的发展已经好于预期，俄罗斯的信用基本面 - 政治稳定，预算平衡，经常账户和外国储备 - 现在处于明显的形状。”一位美国银行家补充说：“他们有很多石油，[弗拉基米尔总统]普京正在让经济职能。腐败是下降，市场更好地工作。”

Belarus and Ukraine have long been criticized for staying in Russia's orbit, but this time it did them some good: The two rose 1.5 and 3.8 points, respectively.

与此同时，和平可能在巴尔干人中爆发的迹象不仅会增加南斯拉夫（上涨1.5分），而且还增加了克罗地亚（1.1）甚至阿尔巴尼亚（2.0）。哈萨克斯坦上涨1.1分，大概是因为世界需要石油，而保加利亚上涨2.0分，因为一个对冲基金经理说，经济似乎正在运作：“它坚持其针织，只是嗡嗡声。”

通常的最爱持续上涨：波罗的斯和捷克共和国，匈牙利，波兰，斯洛伐克和斯洛文尼亚都获得，尽管少于过去的调查（反映了与西方邻国的贸易减少）。只有摩尔多瓦（-2.1）和格鲁吉亚（-1.3）注册了显着下降。“摩尔多瓦是一场灾难”，Mellon Financial Corp.的首席国际经济学家Firmino de Sousa说：“这是欧洲最贫穷的国家。人们正在移民到罗马尼亚，这表明它有多差。”他补充说，格鲁吉亚，“有一点内战正在继续，俄罗斯支持一个想要独立的部分。”

Two countries were added to the Eastern European list: Azerbaijan and Macedonia. Both entered in the middle of the regional pack.

The second-largest regional gain was registered by North America, up 1.6 points. The U.S. has once again demonstrated that when it sneezes, well, you know the rest. But America's neighbors are feeling better now. Canada rose a sizable 2.1 points because, says Lehman Brothers' Edwards, it's not only poised to benefit from a U.S. rebound; it's "a commodities-based economy and could therefore see better terms of trade" as the global economy mends.

与此同时，墨西哥增长1.9分，因为“不可避免地，美国恢复将撤离墨西哥的利益”，美国银行家说。他说，这是重要的，因为总统“维森特福克斯尚未送达，但由于价格较低，石油没有贡献它可能拥有的东西。”

Why did the U.S. gain only 0.9 points amid hints of global recovery? Many economists are troubled that productivity improvements in the booming 1990s are turning out to be much smaller than people had been led to believe. Other structural problems, such as low household savings levels, will reemerge as issues along with expansion. "The imbalance in the U.S. economy raises concern that this will limit the pace of the upswing," warns one Wall Street economist.

Despite Argentina's woes, Latin America rose 0.1 points to 35.9. That's down from an all-time high of 39.2 in September 2000 but still a high note. This was accomplished, moreover, in spite of Argentina's falling 19.2 points over the past two years, while spiraling downward from sixth to 20th place regionally and from 60th to 99th in the global ranking.

At a press conference in Buenos Aires in April 2000, no less a figure than Citigroup chairman Sanford Weill told reporters that Argentina would be an investment-grade credit within three years. He's got a year to go on his prediction, but many say Argentina has inevitably reverted to form.

Still, observers say that because Argentina's collapse was no surprise, its default on its $141 billion in foreign debt caused only minor tremors. Nearby, Bolivia fell because, says one U.S. banker, "the president [Hugo Bànzer] has had cancer and has stepped down, and there is concern about how things are going to move forward." Jamaica dropped 1.3 points because unrest and fear of flying buffeted the country's vital tourist industry.

Eleven nations in the region rose 1 point or more. Peru rose a healthy 2.4 points, largely as a result of perceived political changes. "It's better now that PPK is running the country - at least we hope he's running it," says an investment banker and former colleague of Pedro Pablo Kuczynski, the First Boston Corp. alumnus and private equity fund manager who has become minister of the economy and finance in the Alejandro Toledo regime.

该地区的其他增加更难以解释。委内瑞拉仍然增长1.1分，尽管较低的石油价格和雨果总统的民粹主义政治危害其经济，但较低的石油价格和民粹主义政治。小型中美洲和加勒比国家的厚颜无耻也莫名其妙地升起。“也许人们刚刚过世才能显示没有传染性，”猜测一个荷兰的被访者。一个国家被添加到拉丁名单 - 伯利兹 - 其35.2评级如此接近区域平均值35.9，即它几乎没有影响。

最大的区域下降是亚太地区的3.5点秋季，该地区的第三次连续下降。亚太地区的41.7评分均良好的40多岁，该地区在整个20世纪90年代被架起。当然，这是每个人都深信未来是亚洲的。现在，东亚的平均GDP增长是30年来最慢的。但至少部分下降可以追溯到添加三个非常低的国家：柬埔寨，老挝和蒙古。

令人惊讶的是，阿富汗暴跌，但该国已经被评为如此之低，它没有堕落。1.4点下跌截止了预先截止了55％的5.9级，在调查的最后一个地方巩固了它的锁定。

Nepal registered the steepest decline in the region, 3.6 points, and the fourth-largest drop among all countries. This stemmed mainly from the murders of some royal family members. Taiwan's 1.9-point slide occurred because of a lack of foreign demand, particularly for semiconductors, as well as domestic demand, notes Enrique Gregorio, head of corporate research at Metropolitan Bank & Trust Co. in Manila.

Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand all fell as a result of reduced trade and exports and scant evidence that these countries are reducing their dependence on narrow export segments, such as electronics. The sizable Muslim populations in the Philippines and Malaysia also worried some respondents, as did the level of government debt in Thailand and the Philippines - now 65 percent of GDP in both places.

Australia and New Zealand both had strong gains. Like Canada, they are viewed as commodities-based economies that are poised to benefit from global recovery. Hong Kong climbed 1.3 points principally because the Chinese economy is holding up well; China itself moved up marginally, after a 1.2-point drop in the previous six months. South Korea rose 1 point, Metrobank's Gregorio says, because "even though it is in the midst of a restructuring, the domestic economy is strengthening." A Hong Kong banker suggests that South Korea's strength is about the only reason why North Korea rose 1.8 points.

亚洲是“持有模式”，Cibc的Krijgsman说。它一直在堕落，但“最糟糕的消息已经出局”。尽管如此，他警告说：“对美国康复迅速的不确定性可以保持平坦。”

The next-biggest decline - 1.1 points - was registered in the Middle East, as seven countries fell 1 point or more and only one rose by at least that amount. Continued political turmoil not only dragged down the major confrontation states - Egypt, Israel, Jordan and Lebanon - but also several Gulf states. Only Iran moved in the opposite direction, amid hopes of moderation on the part of its regime. The regional rating of 45.8 represents a 2.1-point decline from September 2000, but it is still well above the 36.7 of a decade ago.

非洲士兵，几乎没有注意到。其整体评级不变，因为六个国家，上涨1分或更长的四个国家被拒绝至少这一金额的四个国家。“我不明白为什么非洲不会继续下降，”一位英国银行国家风险分析师说。“事情没有更好，人们越来越恶心。唯一的好事是战争被调整了。”尽管经济学令人沮丧的政治稳定性，但这恰恰是更大的政治稳定性 - 这有助于提高一些评级。

Taken as a whole, this latest country credit survey is emphatic in its message: Recovery is approaching. It also suggests that when countries like Argentina and Turkey get into trouble, it need not cause contagion. And Russia's rating revival attests to how countries can recover from a near-death experience. This message is heartening; the next edition of the survey should reveal how much of it is true.

To view the Country Credit Rating results, pleaseclick hereor go to the研究与排名部分of this site.