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The 2003 Global Research Team

一些公司在一个艰难的任务中取得成功:满足全球投资者的不断增长的需求,而不花捆。

    一些公司在一个艰难的任务中取得成功:满足全球投资者的不断增长的需求,而不花捆。

    9月份七项金融部长集团会议后不久,美林林奇邀请客户与该公司的全球纽约,伦敦和香港的全球战略师参加会议。分析师将讨论布什政府对强劲美元的不懈努力的影响。超过1,100个Merrill客户,大约需要四倍的电话号码,拨入了Merrill分析师的预测,美元威胁要抑制世界对美元计价资产的兴趣。

    经过几个历史几年,全球研究开始再次找到观众。随着全球股市的反弹和美国经济恢复,投资者有更多的理由要注意推动美国和其他地方的行业行业绩效的全球因素。Consider the recent performance of the huge U.S. multinationals that tend to benefit most from a falling dollar: In 2003 through mid-November diversified manufacturer 3M Co.'s shares were up 28 percent, sportswear manufacturer Nike rose 39 percent, and conglomerate United Technologies Corp. gained 38 percent.

    It's impossible to track suddenly improving sectors like telecommunications without understanding Motorola, Nokia Corp., NTT DoCoMo and Samsung Electronics Co., or to home in on the cost structure of Western manufacturers like Intel Corp. without analyzing their Asian production strategies. Increasingly, shifts in Chinese demand for steel and other commodities can make or break U.S. and European companies.

    "These are the kinds of things that drive the globalization of the research effort," says Susan Ulick, who heads global research at New Yorkbased TIAA-CREF, which oversees $37 billion in assets worldwide.

    华尔街可以找到创造性的方式来满足这种需求吗?Stephen Way是一名投资组合经理,在多伦多的190亿美元资产股票管理中,Merrill呼叫吸引了听众,因为“这是独一无二的,尚未提出的思想挑衅的角度。”但是这些努力,警告,“几乎没有。大多数研究是平凡的东西。挑战是以一致的基础产生富有洞察力和专有的研究。”

    The firms that best met this challenge dominate our seventh annual Global Research Team (see table, page 52). Leading the way, UBS secures first place overall with 23 positions, jumping from fourth in 2002, when it garnered 18 slots. Merrill Lynch takes second place, just one team position behind UBS and with three positions more than its total last year, when it ranked third. Morgan Stanley falls from a first-place tie to third, with 20 team positions, one fewer than it scored in 2002. Credit Suisse First Boston, which tied for first place last year, plunges to sixth this year; while Deutsche Bank Securities rises two notches to fourth place, and Smith Barney Citigroup repeats at No. 5.

    Consistency contributed to UBS's showing. "They have the most globally coordinated view from a lot of local, on-the-ground analysts," says one investor who singles out the firm's Technology/Software team (which advances from runner-up to tie with Goldman, Sachs & Co. for first place). "They do the best job of making sure analysts are on the same page." UBS, he adds, uses its global resources to produce insights into U.S. companies. "If the stock of Motorola is not doing well, they do a good job of looking at Europe and Asia to see who is taking market share," says the client.

    生产顶级全球研究并非很容易。研究预算 - 特别是对于全球服务 - 在任何地方都在压力下。由于它的成本高,复杂和提供了不确定的回报,全球研究是一项素质目标,当时华尔街高管开始狩猎2001年和2002年的费用减少。大多数研究董事私下估计,过去至少20%的全球预算将至少增加20%年两个。最受欢迎的受害者是全球研究协调员,其唯一任务是从经纪公司在一个部门内的各种区域努力中伪造统一的全球研究产品。史密斯巴尼花旗集团和信用瑞士瑞士瑞典首次淘汰或巩固了许多这些职位。其他(包括UBS和Merrill),包括瑞士州和美林,作为更广泛的研究人员减少的一部分,修剪了全球团队。“如果你回到三年,那么有一些享受晋升的分析师,你想以任何原因保持各地。他们得到了全球[部门协调员]工作。现在他们不再在那里,”伦敦经纪公司的欧洲研究主任。

    Responsibility for global coordination today often falls to an individual sector analyst who continues to track a regional industry while pulling together occasional worldwide research pieces. The result: fewer global research pieces than there were two or three years ago.

    Wall Street's straitened circumstances have also forced brokerage firms to focus attention more closely on their biggest commission-paying customers. Elsewhere they try to fill in the gaps however they can. "Firms are cutting back their budgets and dumping more and more stuff on the salespeople," says AGF Management's Way.

    Even research providers concede that they can't afford to spend lavishly. "What folks are wrestling with is how can you service the global requirement with the existing type of resource base," says James Gingrich, director of global research at Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. in New York. In many instances this means fewer 100-page tomes chock-full of numbers and more qualitative research. "We've gotten away from 'What's the cheapest stock in the whole world in the biotech sector?' and done more along the lines of 'How is the health care reform in country X going to affect the prospects of American companies?'" says Alicia Ogawa, associate director of global equity research at Lehman Brothers in New York.

    卖方公司也朝着更加电子,交互式产品迈进。例如,Merrill现在发布了全球奥坎交互式分析师工具包,允许客户在诸如兴趣费用等金融模型中更改假设,例如石油价格。另一种产品是全球零售商的估值电子表格,有助于投资者获得该部门的全世界观点。“在高层,我们正在尝试定制产品,以便对我们的客户更有用,”Merrill Browning,Merrill的全球证券研究和经济学负责人。“我们通过使它们更具互动和更多的主题来实现这一点。”

    A streamlined approach is understandable in light of recent stock performance. Global investing lost ground in the late '90s, when most buy-siders were preoccupied with U.S. technology stocks. And until this year virtually all of the world's markets were dripping red ink and many multinationals were pulling back, limiting the appeal of global research. U.S. tax-exempt assets managed globally actually shrank to $34 billion in 2002 from $45 billion in 2001, and new global equity mandates from tax-exempt investors totaled $1.3 billion in 2002, half what they were the year before, according to data gatherer InterSec Research in Stamford, Connecticut.

    在投资者的眼中,在全球遵循股票,这里列出的公司和分析师正在提供需要的大部分时间。例如,投资者表示,基于伦敦的基础材料分析师Peter Hickson和瑞银的同事于去年11月制作了一份第一率报告,中国经济增长迅速将增加对铝,铜,乙烯,铁矿石,石油,镍,镍,镍的需求如何增加。铂和钢,其中包含其他金属和材料。他们推荐包括美国的潜在受益人,其中包括美国化学品生产商Dow Chemical Co.(从11月中旬发布报告),MMC Norilsk镍(上增长160%)和U.K.矿工Rio Tinto(上涨15%)。“瑞银在前面。他们做了分析,并对它的影响有多大程度的预测,”欣赏的投资者说。Hickson和公司首先举办金属和矿业的第三年赛跑。

    投资者希望所有公司也可以做到。即使在投资者中,即使在高度排名的公司中,全球努力的质量也取决于领导者和所涉及的各个人的承诺。

    "What we would like is a team of people working without geographic boundaries," says Norman Boersma, director of portfolio management at the Toronto office of Templeton Worldwide, which manages $97 billion globally. "People have gone from total silos to taking the silos apart to some degree. They are talking, but they are not one team."

    “很少有房屋实际上是从部门级别提供任何一种综合方法,”Agf的方式说。“很难与全球公司的任何人交谈,并让他们能够将日本银行与欧洲银行与新兴市场的银行进行比较,并真正了解这一点。在提出全球时,房屋有很多工作要做在很多不同的部门的透视图。“

    投资者最令人印象深刻的是跨越全球主题的跨境的部门研究。良好的全球研究“包括所有能够突出每个市场趋势的所有主要公司,”国际基金的股权分析师彼得·罗布金斯·洛杉矶(洛杉矶)的股票投资管理有限公司的股权分析师表示。“最重要的是能够看到公司在全球范围内的重视。”

    根据平衡,经纪公司似乎在遵守严格预算时满足这些需求的进展。今年的参与者的全球研究团队表示舆论评估了5.87的全球卖方部门研究质量,比2002年的5.54年级略高于5.54的等级。

    “该产品已成熟,”乌斯伦敦全球股权研究负责人汤姆山。三年前,他指出,经纪公司可以通过包括标准宏观经济分析的股票挑选,使经纪公司能够区分。今天,每个人都在制作股票选择,投资者正在保持成功和失败的分数。“良好的分析应该导致提高建议,所以这是一个公平的赌注,即做出一致的良好建议的人必须一直在做始终如一的工作,这是值得付出的,”霍尔说。

    这些排名由机构投资办事处研究人员根据研究刘易斯·诺克斯和高级编辑亚博赞助欧冠Jane B. Kenney的助理管理编辑。Charles Keenan撰稿人写了概览。

    Click hereto view the entire The 2003 Global Research Team results.