2004年全美研究团队

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在华尔街公司被迫接受historic $1.4 billion settlement with regulators over tainted securities research 18 months ago, New York State Attorney General Eliot Spitzer was able to move on to more prosaic matters, such as rooting out fraud in sales of mattresses online. But for Wall Street analysts and their clients, coming to terms with the post-Spitzer era remains a daily challenge.

Brokerage firm research departments have experienced unprecedented upheaval. Budgets have been slashed, paychecks chopped, analyst ranks pruned. Compliance officers have bivouacked en masse in research departments. Seasoned analysts have hastened their retirements or embarked on different careers. Several of those who have stayed on at their firms have transferred to more profitable departments, such as trading.

“这是一个非常困难，非常令人不安的时间，”弗吉尼亚州夏洛斯维尔的夏洛茨维尔（Charlottesville）的实践标准副总裁Jonathan Boersma表示，曾致电曾称之为投资管理和研究协会。“每个人都知道整个行业现在在助焊剂中，这并没有帮助你在晚上睡得很好。”

But out of the tumult a new look is emerging for Wall Street research: analysts who are younger, more vigorous and adaptable -- and more motivated by the nitty-gritty work of digging into companies than were some of the deal-fixated, fame-and-fortune-seeking analysts of the presettlement, stock-bubble days. Fresh faces abound. One of every nine analysts on Institutional Investor's 2004 All-America Research Team has never been ranked before; nearly one of every five winning analysts is new to the first team.

What's most striking, though, is that the best of the new guard -- the ones we feature on these pages -- continue to do superb work, according to the almost 3,500 portfolio managers and buy-side analysts, from nearly 700 institutions, who responded to the 33rd annual All-America team survey. And while many indicated frustration with the exodus of talented, experienced analysts, they also praised the newly emerging stock researchers for doing fine work. Indeed, our survey shows that All-America team voters are more satisfied now with the quality of research than they have been since 2000. Almost 70 percent of those responding to the supplemental survey sent with the All-America team questionnaire say that sell-side analysts today are more objective and accurate -- and less subject to conflicts -- than they were before the regulatory crackdown.

雷曼兄弟讲道，一家雷曼兄弟在竞争对手的竞争对手上仍然是首先，在全美排名的首先连续一年中追求头部和肩部。Merrill Lynch同样已经将资源倒入培训新兵，从第三名到第二个。与美国研究业务，UBS的上部梯队的相对新人跳跃了两个斑点。相比之下，摩根士丹利比去年有四个较少的球队职位，并从第二到第四个跌落。史密斯巴尼花旗集团排名前五，从去年四年开始滑倒（见上面的领导表）。

为了确定，华尔街仍然有大量的资深分析师，他们正在转出一流的工作并被认可。在今年的阵容中更熟悉的面孔是：高盛和Co. Biotechnology分析师Maykin Ho，何某一直在球队上直接参加11年;熊，Stearns＆Co.会计Guru Patricia McConnell，1990年首次出现;桑福德伯恩斯坦＆Co。抵押贷款财务分析师Jonathan Gray于1975年在团队中亮相;和国际战略和投资集团主席和经济管理机构Ed Hyman于1976年首次排名在该团队中，并已直接25年的1号经济学家。

然而，很容易理解为什么这么多的长期分析师想要跳船。出于一开始，斯波特沉降的监管严格和新的证券电池和交换委员会的狭窄，甚至旨在消除一个兴趣冲突。公司的内部委员会现在必须批准评级对股票的变化，合规性伙伴箱与投资银行家和新闻界的对话。

But the new regulatory regime is not all that's behind analyst flight. Factor in, too, the bursting of the Internet bubble followed by a three-year bear market. And don't dismiss dwindling compensation. With their paychecks no longer fattened indirectly by investment banking fees -- banking and research are now strictly quarantined -- analysts working for brokerage firms have seen their median pay fall from $230,000 in 2001 to $155,000 in 2003, according to the CFA Institute. Pay packages would have been thinner anyway because of the sharp recession in finance postbubble, but not like that.

更重要的是，诱人的替代方案存在于成熟的分析师，特别是对冲基金。今年值得注意的港口：摩根士丹利的史蒂文加拉泰，2002年和2003年的排名第一，加入了对冲基金Powerhouth Maverick资本管理。其他退伍军人分析师待留下，但将他们的股票技巧转移到新的领域，特别是专有的交易，今天是大型经纪人的主要利润中心。摩根斯坦利的Anand Iyer，其敞篷车研究团队于2003年首先在今年早些时候在一家新的专有可换股套利台中获得的Andy Pipa，是一家公司的明星贸易商之一。UBS的Samuel Buttrick，他在航空公司中排名第一的赛跑，正在从该公司的研究部门转向其普通贸易团队。

Many analysts who have chosen to stick with the sell side find nonetheless that hedge funds are prompting changes in their jobs. These increasingly important and lucrative clients demand, for instance, recommendations on shorting stocks. Some firms more than others have aligned themselves with these frenetic traders. If you rank firms solely according to the 834 hedge fund voters who responded to the All-America team survey, casting a combined 16,700 votes, Goldman leaps to third place from eighth overall, while Morgan Stanley rises from fourth to second, switching places with Merrill.

包括白金汉研究小组和Fulcrum Global Partners等独立研究精品店，包括独立研究精品店，有分析师，他使对冲基金列表但不是整体排名。（对冲基金投资者的分析师的完整排名将出现在10月/ 11月期间II姐妹出版物alpha;有关更多详细信息，请访问www.instutomalinvestor.com/alpha。）

华尔街上的新订单造成了不仅仅是客户的小型克赖特。投资组合经理和购买侧分析师在我们的调查中说，他们在调查中，他们重视销售方分析师最重要的是他们的行业的知识，对失去对可以获得的深层专业知识的研究人员感到不满。许多已经离开该领域的高级分析师自2000年以来，我们首次要求选民为研究质量分配评分，已被年轻，无经验的员工取代 - 如果他们完全被替换。

"The best people are leaving," grumbles one veteran portfolio manager. "Instead of talking to people who have spent ten or 20 years covering an industry, who know it like the back of their hand, know all the players, you're talking to some kid who's barely out of business school. That kid can't tell me anything I don't already know."

Still, as painful as the transition to the new generation of analysts may be for many such investors, clients don't automatically equate younger analysts with inferior work. Despite the high turnover in research ranks, institutional investors responding to our latest survey award today's analysts pretty high marks overall. Asked to rate sell-side research on a scale of 1 to 10, respondents gave the Street's efforts an average grade of 5.89 -- up from 5.67 for 2003 and a low of 5.55 for 2002. In fact, this year's figure was just a shade short of the 5.9 earned in 2000, when voting took place before the stock bubble had fully burst.

Some analysts say they feel more freedom to be negative on stocks. One example: Edward Wolfe, the first-place analyst in the Airfreight & Surface Transportation sector, earns praise from survey voters for slapping a sell rating on tank-truck operator Quality Distribution, an important client of his firm, Bear Stearns.

选民在他们的部门中单独出来，在他们的部门12个分析师，他们从未达到过区别，而不是一些对研究业务相当新的谁。乘坐詹姆斯科洛埃洛，31岁，距离达特茅斯学院的amos托克托克工商管理学院几乎没有四年。Covello仅仅三年前就成为了Goldman的半导体资本装备股份分析师，他首先将该团队成为亚军。第二年，他搬到第二位，今年上涨至第1号。

Covello concedes that his youth has made it hard to gain the respect of investors. In his first major report, he predicted that spending on semiconductor capital equipment would decline again in 2002, after hitting what most thought was rock bottom the year before. His bold contrarian call turned out to be spot on, but "people dismissed it as, 'Well, he got lucky,'" recalls the analyst. "There was a lot of skepticism. I heard it in every marketing meeting, every call that we made."

Covello赢得了华尔街上的经验和真正的方式：他一直帮助客户做出巨大的钱。今年，他赢得了另一个逆算会的奖金，在判断出在周期性行业的特点后，2月份降级了他的部门，因此无法支持当前的市场估值。此后不久，半导体资本设备股份潜水。

Jason Goldberg, who covers banks for Lehman, debuted as a first-teamer in the Banks/Midcap category in 2002, just a couple of years after joining Lehman from a junior position at Salomon Smith Barney. This year he wins that category for the third consecutive time -- making him a fairly seasoned analyst, at 31. (He also scores as a runner-up in Banks/Large-Cap.)

"Young or old, hard work goes a long way in this business," says Goldberg, a University of Michigan grad. "Clearly, if someone doesn't have a lot of experience, it may take time to build a reputation. But good, thought-out research gains credibility in the market very quickly."

Wall Street firms are realizing that they need to nurture their young talent. Goldman, for instance, has retained the services of highly regarded former chemicals analyst, Avi Nash, who left the firm in 2002 -- near the height of the controversy over equity research -- to form his own consulting outfit. Nash, who won All-America first-team honors seven times, spends two hours a week with a group of Goldman's junior analysts, tutoring them in financial modeling and stock picking in a program that lasts six months. Several other senior Goldman analysts also act as mentors.

First-teamer Covello says he got so much out of the sessions that he continues to attend them. "I spend a couple of hours a week with him talking about how to analyze cyclical stocks," says Covello, speaking of Nash. "At first people didn't think it made sense for a tech analyst to talk to a chemicals analyst. But I started to realize that a lot of the frameworks he applied to chemicals also applied very well to my stocks."

五年前，雷曼复活了1980年代后期和90年代初期（2003年10月的机构投资者）罗德成功培训计划。亚博赞助欧冠Merrill在20世纪90年代末，所有美国排名的统治在20世纪90年代末的所有排名源于它的购买昂贵的外面人才，去年开始了一个类似于雷曼的计划，以生产家庭成长的星星。

最重要的是，高盛像高盛，美林和雷曼愿意认真投资训练分析师，强调了对客户质量研究的持久性。“我们看到客户开始为他们过去的研究分配更多的佣金，”雷曼的全球研究首席史蒂文哈希说。“业务中的所有问题都对研究预算产生了很大的压力，但我认为大多数公司都削减了太深。”

The great irony here is that the budget slashers -- if they were among the 12 firms now participating in the Spitzer deal (two, Thomas Weisel Partners and Deutsche Bank, settled late) -- must shell out hundreds of millions of dollars to subsidize independent research that they then must distribute to clients along with their own. The cost undoubtedly cuts into the budgets for in-house research at a number of brokerage firms.

对于所有12家公司，结算规定的独立研究价格标签总计在未来五年内总计4.6亿美元。每个Spitzer的十几个必须购买，并为客户提供一份独立的报告，为公司覆盖的每股股票提供一份独立的报告。这种自由覆盖范围必须保持当前的，并以与公司的专有研究相同的方式交付给客户。整体成本的范围从7500万美元的Merrill，花旗集团和摩根士丹利 - 监管机构认为这三者在研究冲突中最糟糕的罪犯 - 分别为750万美元和250万美元，分别为较小的经纪公司Piper Jaffray和Weisel。

显然，独立的研究即将从侧面批次移动到主要陈列室。但随着华尔街勉强接受，独立研究已经从利基地位出现。越来越多的货币管理人员正在寻求股票报告，保证没有任何投资银行冲突的污染 - 因为这些报告的生产者，如Fulcrum Global Partners和PrecesoroR组，否则不会发生投资银行武器。对于1990年代的研究丑闻，当特定公司的一些分析师估计可疑科技公司的分析师与这些公司的管理人员相同，就甚至在20世纪90年代的研究丑闻之前，对这种无关分析的需求也在增长。

一个压倒性的多数 - 76.5％ - 所有美国选民的回答问题现在表示他们使用独立研究。此外，46.6％表示他们计划增加其此类研究的预算，而只有1.5％的人预计会削减它们。

这些投资者是Spitzer交易的明显受益者。但对于受影响的十几个华尔街公司，为每股股票提供第二次意见，才能成为一个巨大的任务 - 这一切的成本肯定会超过结算中规定的总和。每个公司都必须聘请顾问来审查独立研究商店的表现，并确保他们的产出适用于零售投资者，这是一个可以花费一年多的过程。许多顾问在结算日期与7月27日实施截止日期之间的15个月内会见了数百个研究提供者。

But the most expensive part of the whole process may be developing the infrastructure to receive and redistribute the independent reports. UBS contracted much of this task to a technology vendor, Wall Street On Demand, which aggregates reports from 34 independents and imports them into the same computer system that handles production and distribution of UBS's research. Any client calling up a UBS report on the firm's Web site finds that it is prominently tagged with a button the investor can click to receive an independent report on the same stock. Retail brokers at UBS must ask clients if they want to see independent research before processing their stock orders. And if the client replies, "Why not?," the brokers must deliver that research in whatever form the client normally receives research reports -- fax, mail, e-mail or online. Similar rituals take place at the other 11 firms.

"UBS has been extremely supportive of me during this whole process," says the firm's independent-research consultant, Michael Dritz, a former American Stock Exchange floor trader and ex-president of British brokerage Smith New Court, which was acquired in 1995 by Merrill. Dritz resigned as chairman of an independent film production company and turned down other consulting opportunities to work full-time on settlement-related business. "This involves a lot of time commitment and spending that's in addition to the cost of the research."

这些变化中的任何一个都会完成Spitzer的后伊客观的零售投资者吗？怀疑论者比得分比比皆是。但是有一个集团欠国家律师将军一般谢谢（如果不是一个慷慨的未来竞选贡献）：独立研究的生产者。“这将有助于发展独立的研究行业，”Dritz说。“很多这些小型提供商在之前没有办法推销自己。现在他们这样做。”

And that just means even more pressure on researchers to dazzle clients the way the 334 analysts on our 2004 All-America Research Team do this year.

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