India: Delhi Dreams

5月，当印度左倾的联合联盟击败了令人震惊的Bharatiya Janata派对，数百万农村贫困人士享受了高档的联盟的悲惨恐怖联盟。然而，投资者惊慌失措，担心昂贵的社会计划将取代更保守的BJP的基于市场的改革。孟买证券交易所在四天内下降了20％以上。

UPA领导Sonia Gandhi是印度崇敬的政治家庭的意大利出生的成员，迅速迁移​​到平息投资者的焦虑。留下了危机，她谴责了总理的职位，并将这项工作转向了一个值得信赖的前财政部长的Manmohan Singh。20世纪90年代初期的经济自由化冠军，辛格依次被任命为市场改革者Palaniappan Chidambaram成为财政部长。在此帖子的之前的阶段，从1996年到1998年，Chidambaram克服了左派抗议和削减了公司，资本收益和海关税。截至8月下旬，孟买市场受到辛格和恰比拉姆的约会，从5月13日升起了近20％。

Now Singh and Chidambaram, who have been dubbed the "Dream Team" by the press, must deliver. Gandhi's party, the Indian National Congress, leader of the UPA coalition, has promised a "New Deal" for the 650 million indigent Indians who live in the countryside and haven't benefited from India's economic surge; half earn less than $1 a day. At the same time, Chidambaram, 59, who holds a law degree from the University of Madras and an MBA from Harvard Business School, must attract foreign investment to create jobs by demonstrating that India will overhaul its antiquated, protectionist economy. Yet the UPA's 18-party electoral base opposes most reforms, including any weakening of India's strict labor laws and the privatization of state enterprises. The Congress Party opposes selling majority control of state companies.

尽管如此，Chidambaram坚持认为，政府需要开展私有化来筹集资金。10月，印度最大的电力效用，预计销售10.25％的股份，预计将以10亿美元的价格运输10亿美元。

“当大会党假设办公室时，”预期总是太高“，”恰比拉姆在新德里稀疏的办公室采访时叹了口气（见盒子）。“期望很高，因为Manmohan Singh博士是总理，我碰巧坐在这把椅子上。”

也许是这样，但恰比拉姆自己的野心不是谦虚。财政部长打算减少对公司的陡峭间接征税，例如进口关税和国家销售税。中国的可比税收几乎是五分之一。Chidambaram也在支撑印度的臭名昭着的官僚主义。建立业务需要88天，与新加坡八个人相比。财政部长提出了一个投资委员会，由一个知名商人或其他非鲁布拉特领导，以促进外国和国内公司在印度开展业务的努力。

为了振兴该国破旧的Raj-ERA基础设施，Chidambaram必须首先改革税务结构，更加登录。尽管人口超过10亿和世界上11个最大的经济，但印度只有3400万税收员 - 只有一半实际支付任何税款。该国的税收持有国内生产总值的9.6％。

Some observers suggest that grumbling from the left is mainly just noise, noting that even Communist strongholds like West Bengal and Kerala welcome foreign investment. But as he addresses economic shortcomings, the Finance minister must be careful to placate the UPA's more leftist coalition partners.

K.R.G.新德里政策研究中心的荣誉教授Nair绘制这张照片：“会在国会和共产党之间有草图战争，但在一个国家层面，虽然有些奇怪的床单，但它们并不是那么奇怪在他们看起来，因为他们在BJP中有一个共同的敌人，并且共产党人不想再次离开政府。“

至于BJP，党领袖L.K.Advani提出了政府“不要误解人民的骨折授权作为决定性的任务。”他于5月份举行指出，大会党只在较低的房子里只占有七个座位而不是BJP。德尼尼表示，印第安人认为印度人期望辛格的政府“遵循最大共识的道路，而不仅仅是在统治联盟中，而且伴随着反对派。”

尽管如此，政府遵循自己的道路。Chidambaram的六月预算建议提高对外国航空，保险和电信的外国投资的限制。投资者很好。但是，由BJP支持的UPA中的左派，正在发誓，在印度保险公司的外国投资上发挥迁移 - 这是需要新立法的唯一建议。他们的主要恐惧是更多的竞争导致失业。

“奇德巴拉姆的双手被捆绑，他的脚被束缚，一切都是束缚的，”新德里的当代当代当代研究所主任Bibek Debroy说。“他相信市场，但他在各方都受到限制。”

Debt is one constraint. Fitch Ratings notes that India's budget deficit of $56 billion, or 10 percent of GDP, is "more than triple the 'BB' median." Interest consumes 51 percent of the budget. Thankfully for New Delhi, the debt is owned chiefly by domestic investors, who tend to be more patient than foreign ones; otherwise, India could face a Latin Americanstyle financial crisis, says a development economist.

Chidambaram does have some wiggle room for pushing reforms, thanks to India's robust economy. It grew 8.2 percent in the fiscal year through March and is expected to expand a further 6.5 percent through this coming March. The Finance minister aims to hit 7 to 8 percent annual growth over his five-year term, though many consider that optimistic. Led by booming software and information technology businesses, services are driving growth: The sector's exports spurted more than 30 percent last year. One fortuitous by-product: India's foreign exchange reserves are $110 billion, almost three times what they were three years ago.

In urban areas like Bombay and New Delhi, life has been especially good. And nationwide GDP per capita increased from $1,800 in 1999 to $2,900 in 2003, and there has been a significant drop in overall poverty rates, even in rural areas.

BJP在其“印度闪亮”口号上卷积并不令人惊讶。但是派对忘了的是，沉闷在农村的困境，尽管它可能有一些改善，但仍然悲惨。四分之一缺乏净水。2000年农村贫困率超过30％，在城市地区落后于此。

印度的失业率恶化——尽管年代teadily rising GDP -- is frightening. Government projections show that even if the economy grows 6.5 percent annually through fiscal 2007, unemployment that year will be 11 percent of the workforce, or 45.6 million people. This reflects the flood of Indians reaching working age each year. At the end of 2002, 35 million Indians were without jobs, for 9.2 percent unemployment. Complicating matters: 44 percent of workers are illiterate, and 23 percent have only primary schooling.

“让人们在农业之外的工作是该系统一再失败的地方，”新德里国内评分机亚慱体育app怎么下载构克里尔的首席经济学家Subir Gokarn说。在斯坦福大学的6月讲话中，国际货币基金组织第一届副总经理安妮克鲁格告诫那些有利于印度改革的渐进主义方法。“经济成功不是一个秘密的食谱，只有几个秘密的食谱，”她指出，注意到辛格的1991年的贸易和财政改革提高了私营部门效率。“更大的步骤，更加大胆地拍摄，会带来相应更大的奖励，”克鲁格宣布。“解决方案是更快的增长 - 不是强调更加重新分配的切换。通过使蛋糕更大，而不是试图以不同的方式削减它来实现贫困。

Chidambaram可能是印度最佳饼干的大蛋糕。他是强大的意志 - 有人说傲慢 - 并在他的计划和自己中完全相信。“他是一只旧的手 - 他在财政部首席经济顾问Ashok Lahiri说，他一直在工作并了解现实。”

然而，财政部长可能有一个阿基尔的脚跟：他与UPA左派的交易。他的磨蚀性可能会妨碍谈判，说批评者。但正如他将提醒他们，在20世纪60年代，他是“工会领导者和一个忠诚的社会主义者”。他说，广泛的旅行和阅读教会了他这种意识形态的局限性。“其他模特，一个开放，竞争经济的模式，在100多个国家工作，因此它将在印度工作，”恰比拉姆直言不讳地说。

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Chidambaram到投资者：'印度是一个正在发生的地方'

Palaniappan Chidambaram enjoys chess. His hobby may come in handy as India's once-and-current Finance minister maneuvers to accomplish his goals while checkmating his leftist opponents, including those within his own coaliton.

退伍军人政治家和经济政策制定者必须找到一种支持印度繁荣的方式，推动其陈旧的经济体系的急需改革，最关键 - 为尚未参加的农村印第安人提供数亿贫困的农村印第安人。这个国家的繁荣。

To complicate matters, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's left-leaning coalition government was elected with a mandate to help the poor. Chidambaram, 59, will need the support of socialist politicians, many of whom oppose such reforms as privatization and tax cuts.

Chidambaram已准备好与他更多的左翼同事争论。当他告诉机构投资者时，“亚博赞助欧冠我会试图说服他们，因为我相信他们会试图说服我，我们将达成协议。”

新财政部长谈到了他在他新德里办事处上个月举行的II香港局长凯文哈姆林的计划。

亚博赞助欧冠机构投资者: What are your priorities for the next six to 12 months?

Chidambaram: We are refashioning the priorities of the government and focusing on issues relating to governance. That translates to a focus on rural agriculture and manufacturing and on employment. The reasons are obvious: The bulk of our people are in rural areas and dependent on agriculture. Manufacturing is the heart of industry, and as long as manufacturing keeps ticking at a healthy growth rate, the industrial sector also would move at a healthy rate. And of course, the whole purpose is to ensure that there is gainful employment. Parts of the country are always affected by drought or some calamity, so we also have to provide a food-for-work program for the very poor. My responsibility is to ensure that tax revenues as projected are collected, allocated and spent in accordance with these priorities.

Is the new investment commission you propose setting up a key part of your plans to improve the environment for manufacturing investment?

投资环境非常有利。该年度的流动 - 日历年和当前财政年度的前三个月 - 明显高于前一个日历年或财政年度的相应期间。投资委员会旨在为投资提供进一步的刺激措施。委员会将在印度和国外积极主动和外向，积极求助的投资者。这个想法是与各大公司或商界人员的董事会寻求会议，与他们共度两三个小时，在印度的机会上发表，并邀请他们到印度。在印度语境中，坐在董事会并询问他们的投资计划并帮助他们以迅速投资步伐的方式塑造计划。

We have figures that show investment intentions that are very large. And investment announcements are about 60 percent of investment intentions. But actual projects under implementation are only about 50 percent of the announcements. So if I can close the gap between intentions and implementations, we will have made quicker progress.

印度工业和麦肯锡公司的联合会表明，中国制造产品平均比印度制造的28％至33％，间接税是一个重要的原因。可以做些什么？

I don't agree with the conclusion that manufacturing in India is more expensive than manufacturing in China. Perhaps China has a comparative advantage in some areas, but surely India has a comparative advantage in many others. Why would Toyota set up seven plants in India to manufacture everything from automotive parts to transmission systems to full motor vehicles? Having said that, I agree that we must improve the competitiveness of our manufacturing sector. This means lower cost of capital, this means better technology, this means better-trained technical and operative people, this means better management practices, this means adopting new systems to keep down costs. Today in the manufacturing industry, at least half a dozen sectors are as competitive as anywhere in the world. They include automobiles, pharmaceuticals, machine tools, light engineering goods and leather. They are as competitive as China or even better. In the course of time, textiles will be added to this list.

你会减少税款吗？

我们将不得不汇集一揽子税务改革。在直接税方面，我们希望迁至中央增值税;在国家级，我们希望有一个增值税。在国家级，我们将截止日期设定为2005年4月1日。在中央层面，需要两到三年的时间才能进入一个中央费率。第二阶段是将税收和商品纳入税款。我们也希望逐步宣传审理关税。我们希望将它们降至东盟[东南亚国家协会]水平。印度很少有人支付所得税。有3400万税收分子，但只有一个半额支付所得税。我们需要扩大并改善税收合规性。

You are widely known as an aggressive, strong-willed man, but because of that some experts wonder if you are the right person to persuade leftist factions in your coalition government of the benefits of foreign investment. Are you?

如果有人可以接受说服左边的工作，我会很高兴。但目前就是我的工作，我正在尽力说服左边。他们是我的朋友;我以前与他们一起工作过。我是1996年至1998年政府的金融部长，他们有两个部长，所以共产党成员一直是我的同事。我将试图说服他们，因为我相信他们会试图说服我，我们将达成协议。

您已经有问题说服左派筹集了在保险部门的外国投资上限。您还提出了民用航空和电信的限制。你能说服左边吗？

These problems are of different kinds. As far as telecom is concerned, the left acknowledges that we are only making transparent what is already here in a nontransparent manner. As far as civil aviation is concerned, the left acknowledges that raising it from 40 percent to 49 percent is no big deal. The most important of the three is insurance. That requires a legislative change, and therefore it is more difficult to negotiate. I don't think the whole equation between the government and the left can be reduced to this one point.

国际货币基金组资金第一副总经理安妮克鲁格最近表示，印度改革“更大的步骤，更加大胆地采取，会带来相应更大的奖励。”你的观点是什么？

It's easy to write a prescription. The key is to implement it in the context of India. We are a democratic country, we have an elected Parliament, and there's a mandate from the people, which is complex. It has ushered in a coalition government, and I cannot ignore that mandate or ignore the realities of a coalition. A number of things are certainly desirable, but one must always look at what is feasible. However, that will only decide the pace of reform; it will not alter the direction of reform. Let's keep the two clear.

您的政府表示，它不会私有化公共实体。那是什么逻辑？

这取决于利润的定义。我们已经确定了利润，这意味着能够在开放，竞争激烈的市场经济中持续筹集利润。这些公司不会私有化。

Aren't those the companies you should be using to raise funds?

We said that we'd raise money but that we would always keep 51 percent. There's no bar to raising money. NTPC [National Thermal Power Corp.] is going to the market to raise money. [NTPC plans a $1 billion IPO in October to sell a 10.25 percent stake through underwriters Enam Financial Consultants, ICICI Securities and Kotak Mahindra Capital Co.]

India badly needs more funds to help pay down its huge deficit. The IMF's economic counselor and head of research, Raghuram Rajan, has recently said that "the fiscal deficit will come back to haunt India."

我们意识到这一点。这就是为什么我们提出财政责任和预算管理法案。早期的政府只是通过了这一法案，但我们适用于克制自己并向世界其他地方发出明确的信息，以至于我们致力于财政纪律。

Critics say your budget proposal to double rural credit in three years is a recipe for more bad loans。

农业贷款的回收率是一样好as if not slightly better than the recovery rate of loans in industry and for loans given to self-help groups [cooperatives, typically in rural villages, that pool members' savings to pay for a local project]. The recovery rate is 98 percent. The critics don't look at figures and speak with an urban bias. We are not interfering with price, nor with the selection of borrower. We are simply saying, Make credit available to anyone who satisfies the criteria.

What is your message to foreign investors?

印度是一个发生的地方。印度可以吸收大量的投资;印度的人力资源很出色。如果我们可以将技术和资本与我们的人力资源结合起来，印度将增长，并符合世界的利益，为印度成长。滥用印度的贫困将意味着减少全世界的贫困人口，因为世界上的穷人在印度和非洲生活。因此，如果达到印度的发展目标，它对世界有益。