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European investors regained their appetite for credit risk in 2003. From a high of 1,398 basis points late in 2002, junk-bond option-adjusted yield spreads narrowed to 392 basis points by the end of 2003. The diciest part of Citigroup's bond index -- CCC-rated credits -- returned a whopping 46 percent for the year, besting the overall corporate market's solid 8 percent return. Bolstered by stronger economic growth in the U.S., Asia and parts of Europe, emerging-markets sovereign debt issues on average provided a robust total return of 26 percent. Perhaps the clearest signal that the market was comfortable with risk: Russia's sovereign debt returned 22 percent; in the fall, Moody's Investors Service deemed the country an investment-grade credit.
“In 2003 if you went long on the credit market you would have made money," says Katherine McCormick, head of corporate credit research at J.P. Morgan. "In fact, the worse the credit, the more it tightened."
然而，现在，在高产债务上盛宴的投资者想知道是时候推回桌面。美国和U.K.利率从历史的低点升起，威胁要增加借贷成本和慢速业务增长，特别是在行业或国家 - 仍然债务。今年迄今为止，新兴市场债务已经失去了4.4％。然而，欧洲的高收益债券继续优于2004年初的返回率为3.87％，比5月初，比期间匹配的政府证券更好地为2.70个百分点。因此，对可比政府证券传播进一步缩小至322个基点。
由欧洲的债券分析师致力于为投资者造成这种新环境。毕竟，VIVENDI普遍的债务可能是2002年9月的资产互换的1,400个基点，但2004年5月达到了100个基点？欧洲房价会急剧更高吗？该地区的新生恢复是否会被缩短？投资者在哪里可以在不接受太多信用风险的情况下稍微额外收益？
“去年，我们投入了很多努力进入合适的部门。今年的部门赌注值得较少，”BNP Paribas投资组合信用策略负责人Alan Capper解释道。相反，卡波珀正在重点关注储蓄供应之间的长期关系，这将随着欧洲涉及其养老金危机以及公司债券的供应而上升。除非速度急剧上升，除非额外的节省应帮助吸收债券发行，并对盖玻片保持下行压力。
Analysts must rejigger their strategies even as they come under close scrutiny themselves. Beginning next month U.K. regulator Financial Services Authority will require brokerage firms to guarantee that their fixed-income research is "objective." It has left the exact details to the brokerages, but most firms have had to devote considerable energy in the past year to figuring out how to separate their client-supported research from their proprietary trading. "Morgan Stanley has spent a lot of time thinking about conflicts of interest at the very highest levels of our firm," says Catherine Gronquist, the firm's director of international credit research. Part of the solution: Morgan Stanley's credit analysts are being segregated from the rest of the trading room to help comply with the new FSA policy.
Regardless of from where it emanates, authoritative fixed-income research is vital to investors, particularly in times, like these, when the markets appear to be changing course. And for the second year in a row, investors point to J.P. Morgan as the source of the most insightful analysis; the U.S. bank secures 13 positions to place first in Institutional Investor's All-Europe Fixed-Income Research Team, nosing out Deutsche Bank, which repeats in second with 12 team slots. Citigroup climbs five places to third this year, gaining six team slots for a total of ten, while Morgan Stanley eases from third last year to fourth, even as it adds one team position for a total of nine.
自2002年10月以来，这些和其他公司在垃圾债券市场中发现了他们最好的投资思想，该公司在2001年和2002年的恒星市场延迟了其他类型的欧洲债券.Sven Olson，他以高收益率领先德意志银行的排名第一队制造/普通工业，推荐于2002年8月推荐瑞典炼油厂普雷斯石油的债券，这是由于记录低精炼利润率沉没到63。奥尔森认为公司拥有高质量的资产和充分的流动性，以跑出艰难时期。去年4月，随着潜在的精炼市场改善，债券靠近公允价值，奥尔森去了;他建议的投资者享受了66％的总回报;2004年5月初，债券在101至102岁时变为102。
回想起来，这种选秀权可能看起来“简单”，F＆C管理全球信用研究负责人帕特里克亨德里克斯说，欧洲债券管理欧元债券的E45亿美元（540亿美元）。但他指出“2003年初，2003年看起来就像2002年一样，当大量公司都有很高的杠杆，融资的错误平衡和大流动性问题。”
一些欧洲最大和最着名的公司去年落入垃圾类的事实只加剧了市场上诉。总之，14个堕落的天使债务总额为2003年的高收益问题。其中包括瑞士工程巨头ABB，以及其德国同行龙舌兰，英国航空公司，海德堡和法国化学品公司Rhodia。“很多人都有舒适，因为巨大的市场上限被介绍给该行业，”花旗集团欧洲信贷研究总经理和联席主任David Newman说。他说，关键是“发现哪些公司被强调 - 他们对他们之前的评分有点过于巨大债务 - 这是哪些陷入困境 - 即，存在严重的问题，涉及重组。“
一个好的投注结果是ABB。2002年11月，纽曼，领导第2队的高产制造业/
一般工业公司，推荐在首席执行官JürgenDormann后推荐ABB纸张通过减少成本，减少杠杆，销售业务并管理美国子公司，燃烧工程的石棉责任，将公司恢复金融健康。ABB实现了许多这些目标，2003年7月的美国法院裁决向预先包装的破产计划进行了初步批准，将其石棉负债覆盖为13亿美元。ABB 2008年以2002年11月的价值为2002年11月的价值增加了一倍于2003年5月至114日，总收益率为140％。
当然，一些前天使在2003年的其他人进一步下降。在对其财政的财务拨款的一个月后，巴马拉尔在12月份透露，占资产约有50亿美元的账户并不存在。在几天之内，受到尊敬的意大利乳制品制造商的债务从90年代中期到高唯一的数字（它已经恢复到低青少年）;在年底申请破产保护的巴马拉马拉马拉纳尔;它归还债权人约170亿美元。
帕玛拉特高管初始掩饰的problems also produced one of the year's best calls. Thomas Mazarakis and his team at Goldman Sachs International put out a report on October 10, 2003, a full month before the irregularities surfaced. After a Parmalat analysts' meeting at the end of September, Mazarakis grew suspicious. In his follow-up report the analyst wondered why the company's accounts showed a big cash balance that wasn't being used to pay down debt. "We came away feeling very skeptical about the financial management of the company. They had very weak justification for maintaining all that cash," says Mazarakis, whose team retains second place in Investment-Grade Consumer Products. "At the end of the report, we wrote that we were 'not comfortable recommending Parmalat bonds to investors.' That's not the sort of language we normally use."
最近，分析师已经开始搜索投资者可以在不加载信用风险的情况下获得增量收益。结构化产品是一种替代方案。“许多投资者正在研究[抵押债务义务]以及如何将这种结构纳入其投资组合，”投资级策略中的第3团队领导第3团队。例如，高级CDO经理可以提供高信用质量，仍然支付投资级利率的溢价。
商业抵押贷款支持证券，另一种结构化产品，也提供承诺。五年，浮动率，三重CMBS在LIBOR上支付了27个基点的分布，而可比的公司漂浮物在Libor支付4个基点。自2003年底以来，三级CMBS和企业之间的传播缩小了31个基点，“投资者正在利用这一点，”霍华德·斯坦利（摩根士丹利）的第1号排名和抵押贷款支持证券团队。
Next month, many researchers will begin evaluating the markets from a whole new vantage point -- far away from the bond trading desk. In response to the tainted research scandals in the U.S. -- and the new U.S. regulations governing impartiality of research -- securities dealers in Britain must take responsibility for ensuring that research advertised as objective is in fact impartial. As outlined by the FSA, potential conflicts of interest could include having analysts participate in new-issue marketing, having the trading desk take a position to benefit from an upcoming research report or having an analyst issue a report to favor an existing trading position. The firms have been left to craft their own responses -- for now.
例如，摩根士丹利自2003年11月以来，摩根士丹利限制了分析师参与承销投资和交易营销。然而，最近，它禁止研究人员收到有关该公司的交易职位的任何信息，而且还禁止销售和贸易人员了解即将到来的研究的时间和内容。
为此，该公司正在使用带有电子钥匙卡操作的门的玻璃墙来将大部分研究部门分开。“这是奇怪的，但现代建筑不能快速地拿起玻璃墙，”研究总监Gronquist说。“但是，与FSA关于公正性的思考以及在洁净室环境中创造研究非常一致。”分析师一直坐在地板的一侧，远离贸易商。
摩根士丹利将使另一个改变。奖金套餐将不再与任何特定产品区或交易台的性能相关联。“将有新的个人表现措施，”Gronquist说。她预计买方客户的反馈将影响分析师赔偿的赔偿。
If so, the sell-side analysts have reason for optimism. II asked the buy-siders who voted in our All-Europe Fixed-Income Research Team survey to rate overall research quality. In 2004, 34 percent of those expressing an opinion were "very satisfied" with brokerage research, compared with 19 percent in 2003. Investors, of course, may feel a little more charitable after a long bull market. There's no assurance that will continue.
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排名由机构投资者编制的，由研究刘易斯·诺克斯和高级编辑Jan亚博赞助欧冠e B. Kenney的助理管理编辑的方向编制，高级助理编辑Tucker Ewing。
