电视节点有一个来到的感觉：“信贷不好而不是问题。。。唱片低点附近的房价。。。没有钱下来！”
The sponsors of these ubiquitous ads are not fly-by-night outfits. They are fast-growing financial institutions that have found a way to attract scads of customers -- and earn hefty profits -- by offering home loans to borrowers with poor or nonexistent credit at prices as much as one third or more above regular mortgage rates.
次级贷款 - 所谓的借款人的信用状况，而不是贷款的利率 - 已成为禁止的2.8万亿美元抵押贷款市场的商业循环甜蜜点。过去十年，次贷款贷款的起源平均每年增加超过25％。国家抵押贷款新闻表示，2004年汇总贷款将占总抵押贷款额的纪录额为20.9％。随着总体抵押贷款的放缓，次级贷款人的份额从2003年的8.8％增加了一倍以上，当他们的总量为3900亿美元时。1995年，次级贷款占市场的5.5％，或350亿美元。
尽管最近经济放缓,许多次级抵押贷款行业observers expect growth to accelerate again in the second half of 2005, allowing subprime lenders to boost market share even if interest rates rise and home-price appreciation eases. The boom has already made stars out of such little-known companies as San Diegobased Accredited Home Lenders Holding Co., Orange, Californiabased Ameriquest Mortgage Co. and Irvine, California's New Century Financial Corp. They have muscled in on -- and built a significant business out of -- what was historically a sideline for established mortgage giants like Washington Mutual and Wells Fargo & Co. And now the mainstream financial services companies are competing more aggressively than ever. Two of the ten most active subprime lenders are top-tier conventional mortgage lenders Countrywide Financial Corp. and Washington Mutual; three others are subsidiaries of Citigroup, HSBC Holdings and General Electric Co.
这些泰坦的兴趣是什么？次次次世纪次次次世纪的专家净收入：2004年前三个季度的净收入在新世纪上升了73％，在堪萨斯城，密苏里州的康斯塔斯州堪萨斯州的堪萨斯州的金融金融金融中的32％。
分析师认为没有理由破坏党。他们说，贷款需求上升 - 由于人口不断增长，更具侵略性的营销和改变消费者对借款的态度 - 只参加行业的手。“人口统计趋势和对次级贷款的需求肯定会导致比常规贷款更快的增长率，而且周期性较少，”圣路易斯投资银行Stifel，Nicolaus＆Co.的金融机构研究负责人Joseph Stieven
事实上，利率和信贷周期并没有抑制放贷者的积极性。Raymond McKewon是公认的房屋贷款公司的执行副总裁和联合创始人，他说：“非抵押贷款行业在很大程度上是非循环的，而不是周期性或反周期的。”
Surely there's room for concern about a bubble in the making. HSBC U.S. chief economist Ian Morris is predicting a 10 percent to 20 percent correction in housing prices over five or six years. Such a gradual decline may not do lasting damage to the housing finance industry nationally, but it could cause serious pain in the frothier markets around major East and West Coast cities. A steep recession or a surge in consumer bankruptcies could stifle the market in general. But few economists are so bearish, and even if there were more skepticism, nobody seems ready to buy it.
GE entered the market in June by acquiring WMC Mortgage Corp. for an undisclosed sum. Citigroup has a sizable stake in the subprime business through its CitiFinancial subsidiary, the renamed consumer finance company Associates First Capital Corp., which Citi bought for $26.7 billion in 2000. Trade publication Inside B&C Finance estimates that the unit made $17 billion in subprime loans through September; it ranked seventh in the industry in third-quarter originations, with $6.1 billion. The top-ranked conventional mortgage bank, Countrywide, is embracing subprime as a way to compensate for declines in prime loans; it's now second behind Ameriquest in subprime lending (13 percent of its $91.8 billion in total loans were subprime in the third quarter).
Accredited's McKewon likes being among such company. Of GE's entry, he says, "Their blue-chip imprimatur is terrific for the industry."
当然，次级贷款业务现在可以使用一点图像缓冲。银行和消费者保护机构越来越多地放置所谓的掠夺性贷款人，他们在景区中将其诱人的贷款投入到边缘借款人。5月，CITIFINANCILIAL向美联储制度支付了7000万美元的罚款，以解决2000年和2001年期间抵押于低收入，高风险消费者的次级贷款的两年缩小的滥用费用。
Extra-vigilant regulators are not the only potential hazard for lenders in this alluring venue. Interest rates are rising, and home prices in some East and West Coast markets are showing signs of cooling. Subprime lenders will feel the squeeze as borrowers with adjustable-rate mortgages have a harder time covering their bigger monthly payments. Declining home prices stand to lower the value of borrowers' collateral, limiting their ability to increase borrowing and likely leading to more foreclosures.
符合或素质，抵押贷款贷款人感受到结束历史上最大的再融资繁殖蓬勃发展的不满意。在过去三年中的每一个作为长期利率下降到45年的低点之后，今年的IndusthyWide Rechance将估计为1.39万亿美元，据政府将于明年进一步预计下降41％。-亚博篮球怎么下串 赞助抵押贷款机构Fannie Mae。Fannie估计，2005年总抵押贷款起源将在2005年的2005年和2006年进一步下滑。随着这种下降的原因在贷款人的利润中，许多人都像全国一样多样化进入次级竞技场。
然而，次级贷款人的影响受到这些趋势的影响而不是主要贷方，并且在某些方面实际上受益于它们。它们基本上与再融资循环绝缘，这涉及主要的传统贷款。次级公司专注于两种类型的贷款，需求更加稳定：大约三分之二的次级贷款是借贷对抗家庭公平，其余的是购房。对于一些信用卡的利率攀升，攀登高达28％，兑现股权以偿还卡余额仍然是一个引人注目的选择，特别是加上收到抵押贷款税收扣除的额外福利。
根据Fannie Mae竞争对手Freddie Mac的说法，次级借款人通常支付1％至2个百分点，比基准30年固定的抵押贷款率平均为5.74％，5个基点高于去年同期的5个基点。大多数贷款人和分析师认为，涨幅率与强化经济和消费者信心携手共进。“如果我们真正处于经济复苏，这应该增加随着更多人获得更多收入和金融资产来提取贷款的需求，”弗吉尼亚大学银行管理教授理查德德文解释，他们专门从事家庭公平和次级贷款。与此同时，更高的利率将阻止许多借款人获得素质贷款的资格，别无选择，只能转向次级贷款人。
对于次级贷款机构来说，利率的绝对水平没有收益率曲线的形状那么重要，收益率曲线通常是短期利率和长期利率之间的正差额。次级贷款机构将大部分抵押贷款集中起来，作为证券出售给各种机构投资者。放贷机构在其账簿上保留了大约三分之一的这些证券，并将这些资产用作发行流向资产支持证券市场的债务凭证的抵押品。越来越多的银行将贷款记在账上，希望这些贷款带来的稳定收入将使其股票对股东更有吸引力。与此同时，许多次级房企正转向房地产投资信托，这是一种更为节税的结构，因为REITs必须将90%的收益作为免税股息支付。但随着收益亚博赞助欧冠率曲线趋平（短期利率和长期利率之间的差距缩小），相对于期限相似的美国国债而言，这些贷款对投资者的吸引力降低。
“我们必须去收益曲线带我们的地方，”认可的麦克斯·麦克斯·麦克斯·麦克斯·麦克斯·麦克斯（Mckewon）在2004年前的第三季度起源于90亿美元的抵押贷款，而同比同期的56亿美元 - 增加了61％。“我们是不愿意的冲浪者。”
Under any conditions, subprime lenders must still contend with pressure from competition and increasingly zealous regulators. As big, deep-pocketed financial institutions like Countrywide and GE take on the upstarts, they are driving down margins. Even so, subprime is much more lucrative than conventional mortgage businesses, which have become tight-
margin, commoditylike operations to conform to standards imposed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
"Every basis point counts to maintain costs," notes Amy Brandt, the 32-year-old president and CEO of GE's WMC Mortgage in Woodland Hills, California. "It's going to be difficult in the next few years for smaller players to compete with the guys at the top as economies of scale come into play."
最大的抵押贷款银行擅长导航监管雷区 - 而次级贷款是一个危险的贷款。消费者活动人士认为，掠夺性贷款是流行病，借款人每年超过90亿美元。掠夺性贷款人通常占据了毫无疑问的消费者和违约的费用或处罚。次级贷款人否认他们从事这样的做法并补充说，他们很少见。“掠夺性贷款的主要问题是定义它，”WMC的Brandt说。
界定次级住房贷款借款人的类别——那些没有资格获得符合房利美和房地美标准的贷款的人——是一个冷计算的问题。根据信用数据提供商Fair，Isaac&Co.开发的基于收入、资产、信用历史和其他特征的信用评级公式，向借款人分配FICO分数。得分低于620分（最高900分）的申请人被视为次贷。那些高
如果他们不能支付大量的首付款，不能用工资存根或纳税申报单记录他们的收入，或者最近经历了止赎或破产，FICO分数可能被视为次贷。
大多数次级船员都是低收入和少数民族房主。据纽约美联储银行学习称，大约2002年次级贷款的所有次级贷款中约有20％的次级贷款都是中间和高收入借款人。
“我的每一个邻居都是次级借款人，”加利福尼亚州纽波特海滩罗斯首都合作伙伴的次级行业分析师Richard Eckert说。“他们是人们 - 就像医生，律师和投资银行家 - 大收入甚至更大的生活方式。”
THE NEW WAVE OF SPECIALTY HOME LENDING began to take shape with the Tax Reform Act of 1986, which eliminated the deductibility of consumer interest payments -- except on residential mortgages. That incentive to borrow for a home or against a home, combined with technological advances in credit scoring and the advent of mortgage-backed-
华尔街的证券交易，创造了一个更大、日益精简和商品化的抵押贷款行业。
20世纪90年代繁荣期间，次级贷款进入自己。直到那时不能获得银行贷款的人只有很少的选择，而是为了与第一家资本或有益融资为联系的财务公司，现在是汇丰银行家庭国际的子公司。常规和次级贷款之间的蔓延通常是今天典型的几次典型间隙小于2％。
随着经济的繁荣，许多主要的金融机构涌入利润更高的次级抵押贷款市场。但在1998年末，随着俄罗斯和亚洲货币危机在华尔街引发恐慌，金融业几乎崩溃。投资者减少了对抵押贷款支持证券的购买，剥夺了一些贷款人的流动性。联合公司金融公司（United Companies Financial Corp.）、南太平洋基金（Southern Pacific Funding）和这家货币商店等机构倒闭或被母公司关闭。然而，随着流动性的恢复和低利率的帮助，那些幸存下来的房市繁荣起来。
一些分析人士承认该行业可能面临令人讨厌和意外的惊喜，特别是如果住房价值急剧下降或产量曲线迅速缩小。“资本市场可以是非常漂亮而mercurial，”警告罗斯首都的埃克特。“现在他们不能购买足够的资产支持的产品，特别是由次级抵押贷款支持的证券。在'98中回来，他们不会碰到它们。”
但是，康涅狄格州格林威治首都的彼得·迪马蒂诺，资产支持证券和抵押贷款信贷分析师表示，这种情况“现在不太可能是几年前。市场参与者更强大;有较少边缘参与者。“
通用电气的加入支持了这一观点。多年来，该集团旗下的通用电气消费金融部门一直盯着美国抵押贷款行业，该行业占美国8万亿美元未偿消费贷款的80%左右，是全球最大的消费金融市场。通用电气在海外有一定的房屋贷款经验，在国内发行了抵押贷款保险；它在美国的其他消费信贷活动集中于自有品牌零售信用卡和个人贷款。
通用电气美国消费者金融公司总裁兼首席执行官马克•贝格（markbegor）表示：“进入抵押贷款市场是一个自然的延伸。通用电气计划将WMC归入其新的全球金融服务品牌GE Money。
GE首选次级空间，因为它比Prime Lending少拥挤，Begor解释。它还拥有可用的车：WMC由私募股权公司阿波罗管理层拥有，旨在销售。GE看到WMC作为相对低的风险游戏，因为它专注于次级频谱上端的借款人，称为Alt-A市场。这些申请人，其中许多自雇人士，通常符合素数，或者贷款，但收入文件不足或无法核准资产。Alt-A Lenders - 其他包括Lehman Brothers子公司Aurora Loan Services和加利福尼亚州帕萨迪纳的Indymac Bancorp - 于2004年第二季度起源于480亿美元的贷款，从今年较早的期间跳跃了50％，到国家抵押贷款新闻。
Reflecting overall subprime growth -- and Alt-A activity in particular -- WMC's volume in the first three quarters of 2004 was $12.1 billion, compared with about $8 billion for all of 2003, and it is poised to continue growing at annual rates of more than 20 percent, says CEO Brandt. As a triple-A-rated parent, GE will lower WMC's funding costs by 60 to 70 basis points; that's equivalent to more than half of WMC's profit margin, and it's sure to put competitive pressure on rival Alt-A lenders. "It gives us the best cost of funds, bar none, in the business," boasts Brandt.
WMC计划在大部分地通过向主要贷方提供服务。通过由WMC运营的私人标签网站，该网站将承保贷款，银行可以向客户提供信誉，这通常会转身离开。CEO Brandt希望在未来几年内以这种方式在WMC的起源中获得多达30％。
如果WMC代表传统的贷款人的下游，阿米利斯最渴望通过对比，将上游游泳，进入主要贷款池中。私人持有贷款人在5月份达成更广泛的市场的决心，当时它在30年超过30年的人们向阿灵顿致电德克萨斯州游骑兵的棒球体育场“阿米捷斯领域”的权利超过30年的7500万美元。“Ameriquest还在其他球场的广告上展现了广告，并赞助全明星粉丝粉丝投票过程 - 所有建筑物都是“主要联盟棒球官方抵押贷款公司亚博篮球怎么下串”。
“棒球是美国的消遣，”Adam Bass，Ameriquest抵押贷款高级执行副总裁及其持有公司Ameriquest Capital Corp.“和家居阶层，我们所在的业务是美国梦的一部分。”
在解释Ameriquest希望扩大其吸引力时，Bass补充道：“我们每个月都会接触到许多潜在客户，我们希望能够向比目前更多的人提供贷款。”其中一些客户将是现有的次级借款人，他们的信用记录有所改善，现在有资格获得传统贷款。巴斯说：“我们不确定还能得到多少，但我们知道这将是一个相当大的数字。”
Ameriquest于1980年开始于1980年作为长滩（加利福尼亚州）储蓄和贷款。根据国家抵押新闻，其起源于2002年至2003年从2002年到2003年增加到2004年的前九个月，达到399亿美元，达到399亿美元。因为阿米利斯特没有透露结果，其表现是其同龄人之间的猜测的主题。该行业中的一些人表示，它去年预订了税前利润近10亿美元。贝斯是监督阿马里斯特政府，通信和法律事务的律师，在那个“令人讨厌的谣言”中加入了这家公司没有计划去公众。“我们非常舒服，”他断言。
The biggest publicly traded subprime specialist is New Century Financial. Second only to Ameriquest in the subprime field, nine-year-old New Century originated a total of $31 billion in loans in the first nine months of 2004, up 60 percent year-over-year, and its share price, about $64 in early December, was up 74 percent over the preceding 12 months.
The share prices of other specialist competitors have also performed well: Accredited Home Lenders is up 48 percent in the 12 months through December 3, NovaStar 33 percent and West Palm Beach, Floridabased Ocwen Financial Corp. 28 percent.
But most of these companies' price-earnings multiples remain in the single digits -- trailing, for example, Washington Mutual, which has a one-year forward P/E of 13, through year's end -- because of concerns about slower loan growth, a narrower yield curve and tougher competition. Even those that have converted to tax-advantaged REITs, including New Century (forward P/E 7.3) and Saxon Capital (8.2), are still waiting for a pop.
SUBPRIME LENDERS HAVE TO be good at assessing credit risk, but one risk they don't pay much mind to is a housing bust. "I don't believe there's a bubble that will burst, but I do expect a flattening of values for some time," says WMC's Brandt, who remains bullish even on overheated California's prospects. "There are so many environmental restrictions to building new homes, and there's such a limited supply of land in high-density areas, that values will probably remain at high levels in the near term."
The median price of a California home will rise to $522,930 in 2005, a 15 percent jump from 2004, the California Association of Realtors projects. In August only 18 percent of households in the state could afford a median-priced home, the group says.
Federal Reserve Bank of New York economists Jonathan McCarthy and Richard Peach also think that the prospect of a housing bust is remote. In a June report they wrote, "Home prices have risen in line with increases in personal income and declines in nominal interest rates. Home prices are not likely to plunge in response to deteriorating fundamentals to the extent envisioned by some analysts."
在看跌方面，汇丰的莫里斯预测，房地产价格将于2005年底或2006年初开始跌倒。一个更深层次的萧条，或者比五个或六年幻灯片莫里斯预见，可以削弱抵押品的价值和可能导致更多的次级抵押品赎回权，第二季度在第二季度运行4.61％。根据抵押银行公司协会的说法，这远远高于传统的第一抵押贷款的速度 - 0.49％ - 但次次次级专家表示，历史标准并没有令人震惊。
即便如此，常规贷方的家庭价值观将更加痛苦。他们更接触到昂贵的住房市场上的昂贵的住房市场，这可能感觉比缓慢欣赏更痛苦，更加适度的价格是次级贷款往往要集中的。
As for interest rate increases, subprime lenders believe they have more to gain than to lose. If higher rates freeze borrowers out of the conventional market, what choice do they have but to pay up for subprime? Says WMC's Brandt, "It's hard to imagine a scenario where short-term rates would be higher than long-term mortgage rates, so with tax advantages, it's still a compelling proposition to take out an equity loan."
即使作为一个平坦的收益率曲线使次级安全内核itizations relatively less attractive, they benefit from being more predictable than packages of prime mortgages. The reason? Prepayments of prime loans usually move in the opposite direction from interest rates -- when rates fall, borrowers prepay to refinance; when rates rise, borrowers stay put. But subprime prepayment rates tend to hold steady in all rate environments. That's because a loan's interest rate is usually fixed for two to three years, and early prepayments are penalized. Also, borrowers have an incentive to keep up a steady flow of payments to improve their credit status. When their prepayment penalties disappear, creditworthy customers can always benefit from getting out from under a subprime loan, points out RBS Greenwich Capital's DiMartino.
然而，掠夺性贷款云可能留下了一段时间。全国房屋股权抵押贷款协会是一家代表次级贷款人的贸易团，希望国会制定联邦反掠夺性贷款指南。消费者团体是北卡罗来纳州达勒姆达姆兰负责任的贷款中心。但CRL也希望各国继续能够增加联邦准则。CRL总法律顾问Michael Calhh迈克尔库尔·迈克尔库尔·迈克尔库尔·迈克尔库尔·迈克尔库尔·迈克尔库尔·迈克尔卡尔霍姆表示，1994年的房主保护法1994年的贷款费用，但不包括预付罚款和其他无互互际成本，也可以增加另外100至150个基点。
双方在受让人责任（借款人起诉包括预借贷款在内的证券化抵押贷款池购买者的能力）问题上也存在分歧。Nhema说，受让人责任增加了这些一揽子计划的风险，从而增加了成本，并可能限制信贷的可获得性。”如果存在受让人责任，就没有流动性，”Nhema董事长兼洛杉矶消费者和商业贷款机构Budget Finance Co.董事长Mitchell Feinstein认为。
But as the subprime industry grows in stature as well as size, predatory lending is likely to become less of an issue. Operating at higher levels of efficiency and professionalism, the lenders face greater risks to their reputations should they make a mistake. Perhaps more important, intense competition has narrowed the spread between prime and subprime loan rates -- and blurred the distinctions between lenders and their mortgage products. Will the financial industry giants prevail over the smaller specialists? Hard to say, but one thing is sure: The competition will benefit the long-maligned subprime sector -- and the subprime borrower.