随着世界各地的经济增长反弹，在美国以外可能会发现引人注目的信贷机会
Credit has enjoyed an exceptionally strong run since the upswing in the global economy since mid-2016. In our view, that trend looks likely to continue, but investors should take a closer look at the overall picture.
“While we expect global growth momentum to remain broadly solid going into 2018, it makes sense to differentiate more across regions given valuations and the different stage of the credit cycle each region is in,” says Chris Kelly, Co-Head of OFI Global’s Global Debt Team.
Indeed, while global credit has been improving overall, some of the most interesting opportunities exist in emerging markets. Within developed markets, we find Europe looks relatively more compelling. The elongated U.S. credit and business cycle, currently eight years and counting, looks increasingly likely to continue into the new year, though late cycle cracks are starting to appear in certain segments.
U.S. stuck in neutral
Growth in the rest of the world is stable or accelerating for the first time in nearly a decade, while the U.S. stays stuck around a 2 percent trend growth rate. Coupled the with relatively richer valuations and higher credit risks in the U.S., investors are seeking more appealing opportunities elsewhere.
虽然美国媒体目前专注于国会大厦的立法议程，但特别是税收改革，最终将循环的真正风险为中心，以美国联邦储备和货币政策收紧的节奏为中心。美联储处于一个有趣的困境。U.S.失业率很低，工资开始攀升，今年美元已经减弱，所有这些都表明通胀压力可能会反应。然而，美国的GDP增长仍然是谦虚和通货膨胀仍然是隐形的。美联储已发出信号，它将继续徒步旅行，并计划减少其资产负债表的大小。随着屈服曲线平坦化，美联储必须谨慎行事。Although it will likely be able to navigate this process successfully and without significant market disruption, tighter monetary policy and a flattening yield curve, combined with sub-par growth, high leverage, and tight credit spreads, could present a risk to U.S. credit market returns. As a result, investors who are habitually underexposed to international and emerging market assets may need to rethink their allocations.
“美国信贷集会由能源和金属和矿业领导，随着2015年底的创伤和2016年初的商品价格，但这可能会逐渐消失，即在基础效果上，”凯莉说。“在这些部门之外，虽然顶线增长是回来的，盈利能力仍然疲软，净杠杆持续上升，并且高产我们看到了传统零售和有线电信等行业的结构问题。”
可用于公司债券的可能提升
公司的bonds have been the asset class of choice for U.S. fixed-income investors for some time, and many investors believe it could get a further boost from recently passed tax reform, which reduced the statutory corporate tax rate from 35 percent to 21 percent. “While we believe tax reform could be a boon to investment-grade credit, the deeper you go into U.S. high-yield the less income there is to tax, and the reform also limits the deductibility of interest expenses at 30 percent, which is a negative for companies carrying higher debt,” says Kelly. “All said, U.S. credit should be viewed at most as an income-generating investment as further price appreciation will be limited, and you will need to pick your spots carefully.”
衡量美国的多样化可能证明是有益的 - 尤其是新兴市场，信用机会继续改善，并在美元债券可以为这些投资者提供更好的价值，这些投资者寻求更高的潜在总回报。新兴市场比美国早期遭遇了震荡：2013年5月“Taper Tantrum”及其后果导致了大量的资金流出，货币急剧削弱，而且增长的缓慢与发达国家的增长放缓。随着中国的湍流以及商品价格的低迷，这在一些最大的国家，如巴西，俄罗斯和尼日利亚的衰退。银色衬里是，这些震动引发了大部分新兴市场的积极政策反应，包括加强宏观经济政策框架和结构改革。随着货币较弱的尾风和商品价格的复苏，新兴市场的增长率呈现出反弹，而且增长差异差分与发达国家，预计即使商品价格中等也将继续进入2018年。
低通货膨胀提供了银行家的灵活性erging markets
Inflation has been trending lower across emerging markets, providing central bankers with greater flexibility to enact supportive monetary policy that stimulates local economies if needed. With real yields approaching cyclical highs, this is again attracting capital inflows. In sum, the improvements in emerging market fundamentals make these economies significantly less vulnerable (than in 2013 and 2015, for example) to capital flight as the Fed raises interest rates. Lastly, while Chinese growth may slow in the months ahead as the authorities focus on financial stability, hard landing risk seems unlikely in the near term. “We believe global funds still remain underinvested in emerging market credit and expect inflows to continue, even if at a more moderate pace” says Kelly.
在欧洲,增长带来意外惊喜for much of the year, and the economy has outpaced the U.S. for the second year running – and yet, it is at an earlier stage in the credit cycle compared to the U.S. Earnings are picking up, but company management teams still remain more conservative and focused on preserving strong balance sheets. This has resulted in a more favorable trajectory of credit metrics, such as net leverage and interest coverage ratios, than in the U.S. Europe has carried a higher political risk premium in recent years with fears over the sustainability of the European Union, and rising populism. However, elections in Europe this year have yielded market friendly results and a better political environment. “Investors who paid too much attention to European politics may now be starting to appreciate the sound economic and earnings recovery taking place across the continent,” says Kelly. “We’ve lived with Europe as a material risk for years, but that risk hasn’t materialized, so with recent economic improvements European credit is performing well.”
After years of monetary policy support for the rocky European economy, the European Central Bank (ECB) announced its plans to further taper its asset purchase program, starting in January 2018. However, the program still remains dovish in design and monetary policy will remain accommodative relative to the U.S. Indeed, ECB’s forward guidance suggests that policy rate hikes will not come before 2019. “We see both favorable macro fundamentals and bottom-up strengths driving European credit, and prefer holding it to European government bonds or U.S. credit,” Kelly adds.
Learn how we challenge expectations with our Emerging Markets Local Bond Strategy.
OFI Global is not affiliated with Institutional Investor.
Fixed income investing entails credit and interest rate risks. Interest rate risk is the risk that rising interest rates or an expectation of rising interest rates in the near future will cause a portfolio's investments to decline. Risks associated with rising interest rates are heightened given that rates in the U.S. are at or near historic lows. When interest rates rise, bond prices generally fall, and the value of the portfolio can fall. Below-investment-grade (“high yield” or "junk") bonds are more at risk of default and are subject to liquidity risk. Foreign investments may be volatile and involve additional expenses and special risks, including currency fluctuations, foreign taxes, regulatory and geopolitical risks. Emerging and developing market investments may be especially volatile. Investing a significant portion of assets in a single issuer may increase volatility and exposure to risks associated with a single issuer. Derivative instruments entail higher volatility and risk of loss compared to traditional stock or bond investments.
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