This communication is intended for investors categorised either as “Eligible Counterparties” or “Professional Clients” within the meaning of Markets In Financial Instruments Directive 2004/39/EC.
After an exuberant 2017 for the markets, can they rise further? Growth momentum seems strong – and synchronised – yet everything is feeling a bit “toppish”, especially with central banks heading for the QE exit doors.
On the valuation front, most metrics are higher than during the dot-com boom and the lead up to the sub-prime crisis. At Lyxor, we’re not calling a crash – not yet, anyway – but with liquidity infusions set to grind to a halt there’s no room for complacency. While we expect a positive start to the year, regional and asset class returns could diverge during 2018.
让我们来看看我们预计年内将推动市场的五大主题。
1最后，财政推动
其中一个主要议题将是美国的税收改革和资本支出的增加——无论你看哪一个，企业都更愿意（或更有动力）投资他们一直囤积的现金。
在美国，税制改革意味着股票应该在2018年初上市。赢家可能包括国内知名企业、小型股、零售业、科技巨头，也可能包括银行。炼油厂、汽车公司和航空公司也可能从中受益。然而，高负债公司将与利息扣除的限制作斗争，因此我们对美国高收益债券持谨慎态度。
在欧洲，我们预计投资将出现更多周期性回升。结构已经老化，随着需求前景的明朗化，企业应该希望利用廉价融资来提高生产能力。据传，日本政府正在准备一项刺激企业投资的一揽子计划。在中国，以环境、电动汽车和盈利能力为重点的改革也应该推动资本支出。
所有这些都可能预示着大宗商品（不包括农业）和基础设施，以及材料、技术和金融等行业的良好前景。亚慱体育app怎么下载
Lyxor ETF相关资金：
Lyxor S&P500ETF
Lyxor Commodities Thomson Reuters/CoreCommodity CRB ex-agriculture ETF
2QE exits and valuations
各国央行看来将进一步远离其超级宽松政策。到目前为止，政策正常化进展顺利，几乎没有什么不安，策略风险目前仍具有吸引力。但现在是时候考虑准备你的投资组合，以抑制通货膨胀和利率上升、市场波动和货币波动的影响。
在QE退出担忧的推动下，任何为规避风险情景所做的准备，都会几乎违反直觉地引导我们转向10年期美国国债（一种仍有大量需求的相对安全的避险工具）和德国国债。日本也因其宽松的货币政策而吸引投资者，而在股市方面，最小方差策略可能是投资者寻找藏身之地的一种选择。
虽然主要央行目前看来将收紧货币政策，但全球经济增长仍有可能放缓，并将立即停止货币政策正常化。全球经济已经用了十年的时间才得以复苏，银行也不会因为过度紧缩而危及他们的辛勤工作。
Lyxor ETF相关资金：
Lyxor iBoxx $ Treasuries 7-10Y ETF
Lyxor FTSE USA Minimum Variance ETF
Lyxor SG Japan Quality Income ETF
三。Bond yields to rise...eventually
债券的好日子可能已经过去了。保持低利率的一些因素仍然存在，但全球经济正处于10年来的最佳状态，通货紧缩的威胁已经消失。我们的核心设想是债券收益率上升——尽管我们并不称之为市场内爆。
In such an environment, we recommend reducing duration. We favour equities over fixed income, but if you have to hold sovereign bonds, countries where inflation (or growth) is less likely to be better than expected, such as Japan and the UK, look the best option.
We also like inflation break even stories, starting with the US early in the year, and eurozone exposures later in 2018.
浮动利率合约是帮助应对利率上升威胁的另一种可能性，短期债券也是如此。信贷——特别是高收益率——看起来很昂贵。我们更喜欢欧洲债券而不是美国债券，因为欧洲央行将在市场上保持活跃，至少在9月份之前是这样。
Lyxor ETF相关资金：
Lyxor EuroMTS 1-3Y Investment Grade ETF
Lyxor US$ 10Y Inflation Expectations ETF
Lyxor EUR 2-10Y Inflation Expectations ETF
Lyxor $ Floating Rate Note ETF
4.Asia advances
除日本以外的亚洲市场去年表现优于全球市场，我们关注的三个主要指标——盈利、估值和流动性——仍在释放积极信号。强劲的贸易和商品价格稳定也应该是有利的。
What’s more, an improving structural story keeps us positive on Japan – especially given the likelihood of another four years of Prime Minister Abe’s loose policy mix.
Is running with the bull too risky when central banks are heading for the QE exit?
In China, there’s value to be found in the reform of state-owned enterprises and the focus on the environment, while the country’s economic concentration in IT is a long-term trump card. Shorter-term, Chinese equities look unlikely to repeat their stellar 2017: monetary tightening is underway and excesses are being tempered.
一旦我们亚洲新兴市场应该会受益dollar resumes its downward trend. We favour Korea on valuation grounds, surging earnings growth, and signs of improving governance. We also like ASEAN markets, especially Malaysia.
Lyxor ETF相关资金：
5.Exploit a two-speed Europe
The days of doubting the eurozone economy seem to be over, but with European equity valuations well above their long-term averages, a selective approach will be key in 2018.
We like French stocks given the general recovery and the progress of “Macronomic” reforms. German stocks have some appeal, especially if a Grand Coalition leads to increased government spending. That said, we prefer to take our exposure to Germany via bunds.
Conversely, the ECB’s gradual withdrawal of QE and a number of political hurdles cloud the outlook for Italy and Spain. The Catalan crisis is far from over, while Italian general elections loom large. Greece could also hit the headlines in 2018, albeit more positively. With its third bailout package coming to an end in August, it will need renewed access to the bond markets. Debt forgiveness appears to be on the Eurogroup’s agenda.
Meanwhile, UK equities continue to face Brexit battles. The agreed-upon divorce deal should bring some hope, but trade treaty deliberations complicate the outlook.
Lyxor ETF相关资金：
Lyxor IBEX 35 Inverso Diario ETF
DISCLAIMERS:
免责声明：
All opinions/data sourced from Lyxor & SG Cross Asset Research teams. Opinions expressed are as at 05 January 2018.
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