今年的一个关键主题将是shift in central bank policy及其对资产定价的影响。美联储导言g the way, but others are preparing their exit strategies. Should you be nervous about normalisation?
The Fed at the forefront
经过十年前所未有的货币政策，美联储在2017年的三次徒步旅馆，并且到今年年底，也开始减少资产负债表的规模。由于美国经济的强劲增长，它能够这样做。虽然没有保证增长将持续下去，但这种力量尚未显示出次数的迹象，因此Lyxor期望今年进一步升温，从3月开始。我们认为，唯一的问题是有多少目前目前看起来很可能。更高的增长可能会迫使美联储更快行动。
下一步：欧洲央行
其他主要中央银行要步其后尘the Fed’s footsteps, and first in line is the ECB. For the moment, it’s still adding to its balance sheet by buying assets as part of its quantitative easing programme, although it’s doing so more slowly: it has reduced its monthly purchases from €60 billion to €30 billion. What’s more, it has stated it will conclude these purchases by the end of September.
在收紧政策时，欧洲央行仍然很好地落后于美联储，其主要政策率仍处于0％。据信，欧洲央行在其资产购买结束后才能在良好的情况下开始筹集汇率，这意味着在2019年之前不可能在2019年之前。应该增长惊喜，不要排除2018年底徒步旅行。
在日本的地平线上进一步收紧
在欧洲央行之后，日本央行可能是下一步。它还没有真正讨论在认真上减少其资产购买，但它似乎最近通过提及逐渐变锥形来测试水。我们相信这仍然存在某种方式，但是：直到今年下半年的正式公告，2019年的实际实施。
博合自己自己罢工（现在）
英格兰银行是一个异常值，因为它争夺了Brexit的不确定性。很多取决于英国对欧盟良好贸易协议的进展：如果这种物质化，它将打开大门，加速进一步下行。
新兴市场的混合图片
What about monetary policy in the emerging world? There’s a difference between those economies compelled to follow Fed policy – Korea has recently hiked rates, for example – and those like China, which have a greater degree of independence.
Inflation is fairly moderate in China so its central bank hasn’t felt the need to hike rates at the same pace as the Fed and is currently adopting a neutral stance. Inflation is higher in countries like Turkey and South Africa, so they could see hikes over the coming months. Look out for India, where the central bank is turning more hawkish. Elsewhere, the Brazilian and Russian central banks remain in a very accommodative mood.
对投资者的影响
Should investors be worried about the end of ultra-loose monetary policy? We’re concerned about its implications for fixed income, but more sanguine about the outlook for equities.
更多：Lyxor削减欧洲ETF的费用
债券看不见......
我们对固定收益越来越谨慎，并相信保护在传统战略中可能更加困难。作为政策率上升，债券收益率可能会在曲线的短端移动。更重要的是，随着美国美联储已经销售资产，我们怀疑甚至对10年的国债等更长的问题甚至有影响，尽管他们仍然是一个安全的避风港。
Having favoured an underweight US Treasury position for some months, we feel the time has now come to adopt similar stances in eurozone fixed income and Japanese government bonds. We’re also cautious about corporate bonds – and US high yield in particular – as well as emerging market sovereigns denominated in US dollars. With the Fed hiking rates, these risky assets will lose some of their allure relative to risk-free assets such as US Treasuries.
可能需要考虑使用较少的传统策略，如通货膨胀和漂浮物，这能够提供一些防止速率和通货膨胀的保护。未来几个月的石油价格上所谓的“基本效应”将甚至更加强劲，因为油价停留在目前的水平，似乎是由于全球实体宏观条件。这些条件均有依赖于发达国家观察到的中等工资压力，导致我们最近将友好的Breakevens升级到超重。
......但对股票持乐观态度
更严格的政策也是股票市场的逆风，但戏剧中有强势力量，使我们对股票前景更加乐观：
- Accommodation will only be reversed very gradually – in stark contrast to the aggressive way in which it was implemented a decade ago. That should soothe any troubled minds among investors.
- The global economy should continue to strengthen – the eurozone is enjoying its strongest expansion for a decade, the US economy is performing well, Japan is recovering, and it’s clear emerging markets – especially China – are doing better than had been feared just a few months ago. Stronger economies should mean stronger earnings growth and buoyant equity markets.
这使我们能够更喜欢股票到固定收入。在股票市场内，我们有利于大陆欧洲和日本，其经济始终表现优于预期，股票似乎良好。我们希望受到美国股票的中立，我们希望暴露于经济和股票市场的强劲势头，但估值并不像其他地方一样吸引人。
在新兴市场选择性
Monetary tightening in certain emerging economies is likely to represent a headwind to risky assets from those countries, but China’s seemingly sustainable growth should, in our view provide support to emerging market risk assets overall. At the country level, we’re overweight Brazil and Russia, and neutral in India and China.
Other things on your horizon?Watch our videoson the themes likeliest to move markets in 2018.
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