To hedge or not to hedge. Investors are weighing ways to adjust to the three-year lows hit by major dollar indexes amid a revival of economic growth overseas.
货币挥杆可能对机构投资者海外持股价值产生重大影响，但对美元跌幅的反应在很大程度上根据他们管理的资产而变化。亚博赞助欧冠
Currency direction influences the investment returns of foreign debt, so managers of foreign bond funds are more likely to adjust their foreign-exchange exposure to benefit from, or defend against, currency fluctuations. Many are shorting the dollar amid its decline.
Managers of foreign stock funds, by contrast, are less likely to manipulate their currency exposures, as currency moves have less impact on the returns of foreign stocks.
Money manager Amundi Pioneer Asset Management is one of the dollar sellers. “We started to position our portfolio to capitalize on the dollar’s depreciation early last year and began shorting it this January,” says Paresh Upadhyaya, director of currency strategy for the 1.4 trillion euro ($1.7 trillion) firm. “Now we’re continuing to build our position for the next one to two years,” he says, on expectation the dollar will keep weakening.
The greenback soared from 2013 to 2016, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index gaining 27 percent from late October 2013 to late December 2016, as the Federal Reserve began tightening U.S. monetary policy and the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan engaged in all-out easing.
“But now we’re moving from divergence to convergence on monetary policy,” Upadhyaya says. With economies rebounding overseas, the ECB already has begun to reverse its easing, and speculation abounds that the Bank of Japan will soon join it. “Meanwhile, the Fed is closer to the endgame” of its tightening, says Bob Browne, chief investment officer at Northern Trust.
Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index于2016年12月23日至今年2月23日暴跌12％。
经过2008年金融危机持续优于欧洲，桌子正在转向美国经济。根据欧洲统计局和美国经济局，欧元区欧元区同比经济增长超过了美国每季度的增长。
“世界其他地区的速度比美国更快或增长，”他说。这将继续养活美联储和其他中央银行之间的货币政策的分歧。他说，反过来会继续推动美元。
Money managers say the dollar also will be weighed down by the massive U.S. current-account and budget deficits. The current-account gap totaled $100.6 billion in the third quarter, or 2.1 percent of gross domestic product.
The budget deficit registered $666 billion in the fiscal year ended September 30, or 3.5 percent of GDP. And it’s likely to explode in coming years because of the recent tax and spending bills passed by Congress.
罗伯特蒂普，全球债券负责人PGIM Fixed Income如果美国建立了债务，指出，美元过去50至60岁的趋势已经向下，间歇性的篮板。他预计该美元将在未来五到七年内削弱。
“For investors with whom we have latitude, we have exposure to the euro bloc, select emerging markets, and other developed markets that have higher rates and see favorable growth prospects,” he says. “We’re likely to continue overweighting foreign currency.”
Tipp and other investors say the primary driver of foreign bond returns is currency movement. “Dealing with currency fluctuation is a big part of what I do,” saysIhab Salib, head of international fixed income at Federated Investors. Sometimes he’ll move assets from one currency to another, and sometimes he’ll hedge.
Like others, he’s bearish on the dollar, especially against emerging-market currencies. He’s long North African, Latin American, and eastern European currencies against the dollar. “We think that’s the best way to get alpha, rather than underweighting the dollar across the board.”
But the greenback’s oscillations have less impact on the returns of foreign stocks — returns that are mostly dictated by company performance. So international stock fund managers often see little need to implement costly hedging strategies.
“我不对冲，因为很难做到，”Rajiv Jain, chief investment officer at GQG Partners, a global stock fund manager with $10 billion of assets. “It’s exceedingly difficult to forecast currencies. Hedging is expensive, and you can be horribly wrong in the next 12 to 16 months.” He and his colleagues are bottom-up investors, so they try to factor currency trends into their assessment of individual companies.
套期保值的铜rrency exposure of foreign stocks also eliminates the diversification benefit of a foreign currency exposure, Jain notes. The dollar’s recent decline, of course, adds to the return U.S. investors are earning on foreign stocks. “Once you hedge, you eliminate the upside as well as the downside,” he says.