作者：伊恩Lyngen，美国议长董事总经理战略
这是美联储信誉的故事。尽管通货膨胀顽固地，其决定将资产负债表和徒步旅馆正常化，尽管通货膨胀顽固，但在实现的通胀曲线的领先地位。因此，定价压力的回报只会有助于增加市场对价格的意愿 - 在未来的喂养费率徒步旅行中。发达经济体的中央银行人士对打击通货膨胀的漫长而成功的追踪记录;另一方面，通货紧缩，已经证明了更具有挑战性的。在美联储政策历史上的一瞥与通货膨胀（由Core-CPI衡量）表明，自20世纪80年代后期以来的每一次紧缩活动都领导了5S / 30s平坦的 - 事实上，到了反演点。
At BMO Capital Markets, we are skeptical of the sirens’ song arguing things are ‘different this time’ because Congress has finally delivered on the long-awaited corporate tax cut, and that the stimulative effects will propel inflation beyond benign levels seen throughout most of the recovery. While we’re conceptually onboard with the argument in theory, our primary concern stems from the 150 bp of tightening and balance sheet unwind the Fed has already delivered. Moreover, the borrowing needs of the federal government will press front-end yields even higher, triggering a supply-side tightening that risks more than offsetting any budding inflationary pressures.
在辩论平整化与陡峭叙述的两侧的优点时，我们有近期用作指导的价格行动。It is rare that the market offers a series of pivot points as informative in understanding the market’s current response-function to the key risks as those we’ve seen already during 2018. The combination of January 12 and February 13 releases of higher-than-expected core-CPI figures reinforced the traditional tie between late-cycle spikes of inflation and the shape of the curve (i.e. accelerating price pressures leads to more aggressive flattening – to the point of inversion). Within the same period, we’ve also seen a glimpse of the biggest risk to our flattening call in the form of a 10 percent correction in stocks – although a large portion of that has since been reversed.
re-steepening风险比笨人更普遍ly the performance of the equity market, and we’re comfortable expanding the proverbial net to include anything that materially tightens financial conditions. Tighter conditions could be triggered by a jump in borrowing costs as well; recall that every major equity market correction has been preceded by a dramatic increase of high yield spreads. More to the point, anything bringing the Fed’s rate-hike plans into question will steepen the curve. Many participants have worried that the recent correction in stocks would derail the Fed, but the Chairman attempted to assuage these fears by emphasizing that “we will remain alert to any developing risks to financial stability.”
The nuance between different steepening scenarios is that an event (credit, stocks, etc.) which triggers expectations for a ‘Powell Put’ will disproportionally benefit the 2-year sector. This implies an immediate end of rate-hikes driven by what is ostensibly an external shock. On the other hand, the 5s/30s curve is subject to steepening risks if and when the growth data (presumably inflation, as well) falls short of expectations. The logic here is that in such an environment, the probability of the FOMC achieving its 3.0 percent terminal rate target would decrease, thereby resulting in a Treasury market rally led by the 5-year sector. Point being, not all steepenings are created equal, and the impetus tells us as much about timing as it does direction.
除了曲线的形状外，还发现历史记录是争议国债的看跌前景的有用指南，这表明下一个八十年收益率为5％。在最后两个喂养的紧固周期，1999-2000和2004 - 2006年，第一次加息和最终寄存期间的10年收益率分别为64.4英镑和61.3英镑。由于美联储于2015年12月开始了当前的汇率徒步旅行，因此10年的收益率增加了63.3亿元。巧合？我们认为不是。
呼回1994-1995竞选活动，卖盘更加戏剧性，开始完成，达到178年的BP。也就是说，与当前循环不同，没有与2016年集会相当的90年代中期移动，即“将时钟重置”为10S的1.38％。因此，我们今天在90年代和150年BP之间提供了舒适的绘图平行。不同地说，在目前的全球速率环境中，真正的难题如果10年的产量迅速增加到5％的危机前水平。