经过多年来，中央银行更关注争夺通货紧缩风险，几个迹象表明了美国更高的通胀环境。在过去的12个月中，油价已经上涨了近30％。美国经济处于“完全”就业，企业报告了熟练工人短缺和低于5％的失业率。工资增长 - 最初缓慢 - 近几个月也开始接收，尽管没有诱因主要工资涨幅。根据经合组织的估计，今年的增长应仍然高于潜在的潜在工业生产能力，目前在接近80％。在Lyxor，我们认为生产设备中的这种压力最终将转化为更高的消费价格。
一些这样的效果已经很明显。对the first time in almost a year, headline inflation (CPI) and core inflation (which excludes volatile components such as energy prices) printed above the Fed’s 2.0% target in March. Higher inflation could well propel the push for higher speed policy normalisation. According to the March FOMC Minutes, Fed officials have grown more confident in the inflation outlook, barring the realisation of downside risks to their projections. Strong inflation reports in March and April should keep the Fed on track for a 25 basis points rate hike in June – and enable it to deliver four in total this year. However, we do not believe that the inflation rate will ramp up too dramatically in the period ahead. Technological developments in areas such as healthcare or communications, unconventional petroleum production and greater investment in productive capacities are factors that could counter at least some of the inflationary pressures.
美国标题和核心通胀前面的美联储2％的3月目标
Source: Lyxor International AM, Reuters Eikon Analytics. Data as at 31 March 2018
资产选择变得更加复杂
Despite the relatively benign nature of the above, investors are increasingly concerned by other issues. Asset allocation has become more complex given greater political risk (like the possible trade war between the US and China), less support from central banks, and the high valuations most traditional asset classes are displaying. As a result, we expect to see a volatility regime shift, with markets much more volatile than they have been in recent years. Some of the market moves we’ve seen in February and March were, in our view, the precursors for this period of instability.
固定收益与股票资产的回报之间的正相关性也会努力更有效地多样化投资组合。从历史上看，采用更加谨慎立场的投资者往往会降低他们对股票的暴露，并将其加权增加到固定收入。然而，在常规债券上需要更大的致密环境中，可能不会明智地在上升的通胀环境中明智。通胀连接的粘合可能更适合这种新的正常情况。
Right place, right time
我们的research shows assets related to inflation tend to perform well in the more advanced stages of the economic cycle. The expansion in the US is undoubtedly entering old age – so the probability of a recession in the next two years is increasing.
Holding commodities, most notably petroleum products, tends to prove beneficial in advanced stages of the cycle (especially 12 months before a recession), both in terms of absolute and risk-adjusted returns. The analysis takes into account US economic cycles, as measured by the National Bureau of Economic Research, since 1970. Inflation breakevens have also been fairly well supported by the recent move in energy/oil prices (Brent crude was above $72/bbl on 17 April). Meanwhile, net flows into short-dated TIPS ETFs have been fairly robust over the past month (despite net outflows in March from all-maturities ETFs).
While energy price moves are difficult to predict in the near-term, the possibility of weather-related or geopolitically induced spike in oil prices remains. They should nonetheless continue to underpin higher inflation expectations. Actual inflation prints, on the other hand, will continue to benefit from positive base effects (temporary slowdown in telecommunications and airfares in 2017) ahead of the summer.
Lyxor的关键电话
目前，我们正在寻求超重资产，如提示和通货膨胀束缚，以及对通胀预期最敏感的商品和这些股权部门。
在股票中，能源股为油价和美国通胀融合提供了良好的代理。全球能源部门提供含有诱人的股息收益率约为3.75％（即积极携带）与投资期货战略的负面携带。当期货曲线处于Contango（期货价格上方的期望价格上方的期货价格）时，后者udder的表现率 - 通常是油的情况。财务状况也仍然是纯粹的廉价方式来发挥全球反射。
Whether you choose TIPs or breakevens depends on your view on where inflation goes next. TIPs are the conventional choice, but breakevens may be a better play if you believe people are underestimating just how high inflation could climb.
Energy stocks: Good proxy to US inflation breakevens
Source: Lyxor International AM, MSCI, Bloomberg. Data as at 31 March 2018
为什么Lyxor用于通货膨胀
Lyxor has the most far reaching and complete range of inflation-linked ETFs in Europe, with exposures covering the US, Europe, and UK. Our核心美国提示ETFis the cheapest on the market at just 0.09%. If you’re looking to not only protect yourself against rising inflation but also rising rates, our unique通货膨胀预期ETFare designed to tackle both. With over 12 years’ experience managing inflation-related ETFs, and €3.3bn in AUM, look no further for dependable solutions to rising inflation.
骑充气波的其他方式包括投资商品，或针对某些部门。我们的广泛的商品ETF.launched in 2006 tracks the Thomson Reuters/CRB index, a reference benchmark with over 50 years’ track record. It was the most widely traded broad commodities ETF in Europe over the past five years. We also offer 10 ways to access global equity sectors, with some of the oldest and largest ETFs of their kind in Europe. OurMSCI世界能源那材料那and金融在过去一年中，ETF在市场上最有效。*
*Source: Lyxor International Asset Management. Data as at 31/01/2018. Statements refer to European ETF market. Efficiency data is based on the efficiency indicator created by Lyxor’s research department in 2013. It examines 3 components of performance: tracking error, liquidity and spread purchase/sale. Each peer group includes the relevant Lyxor ETF share-class and the 4 largest ETF share-classes issued by other providers, representing market-share of at least 5% on the relative index. ETF sizes are considered as an average of AUM levels observed over the relevant time period. Detailed methodology may be found in the paper ‘Measuring Performance of Exchange Traded Funds’ by Marlène Hassine and Thierry Roncalli. Statements refer to European ETF market. Past performance is no guide to future returns.
这对投资者categ沟通的目的是orised either as “Eligible Counterparties” or “Professional Clients” within the meaning of Markets In Financial Instruments Directive 2004/39/EC.
All opinions/data sourced from Lyxor & SG Cross Asset Research teams. Opinions expressed are as at 05 January 2018.
本文件仅针对专业投资者
本文件是专门使用对自己账户的投资者，并在金融工具指令2004/39 / EC的市场意义上分类为“符合条件的交易对手”或“职业客户”。
本文件具有商业性质，而不是监管性质。本文档不构成优惠，或者邀请提供优惠，从SociétéGénérale，Lyxor International Asset Management或其各自的附属公司或附属公司的任何各自的附属公司或附属公司提供或出售该产品。
我们建议希望获取有关其税收咨询援助的进一步资料的投资者。投资者的注意力被吸引到本文件中所述的净资产值（视情况而定）不能用作订阅和/或赎回的基础。本文档中显示的市场信息基于特定时刻的数据，可能不时变为时间。与过去的表演有关的数字是指过去时期的，并且不是未来结果的可靠指标。这也适用于历史市场数据。委员会，费用，税收或其他投资者承担的其他费用可能减少潜在回报。
Lyxor International Asset Management (Lyxor ETF), société par actions simplifiée having its registered office at Tours Société Générale, 17 cours Valmy, 92800 Puteaux (France), 418 862 215 RCS Nanterre, is authorized and regulated by the Autorité des Marchés Financiers (AMF) under the UCITS Directive and the AIFM Directive (2011/31/EU). Lyxor ETF is represented in the UK by Lyxor Asset Management UK LLP, which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the UK under Registration Number 435658.
Lyxor International Asset Management（“Liam”）或其员工可能与其研究报告所涵盖的公司保持或维持业务关系。因此，投资者应该意识到利亚姆及其员工可能会影响可能影响本报告的客观性的利益冲突。投资者应仅考虑本报告，只有一个因素，以制定投资决策。
CONFLICTS OF INTEREST
This communication contains the views, opinions and recommendations of Lyxor International Asset Management (“LIAM”) Cross Asset and ETF research analysts and/or strategists. To the extent that this research contains trade ideas based on macro views of economic market conditions or relative value, it may differ from the fundamental Cross Asset and ETF Research opinions and recommendations contained in Cross Asset and ETF Research sector or company research reports and from the views and opinions of other departments of LIAM and its affiliates. Lyxor Cross Asset and ETF research analysts and/or strategists routinely consult with LIAM sales and portfolio management personnel regarding market information including, but not limited to, pricing, spread levels and trading activity of ETFs tracking equity, fixed income and commodity indices. Trading desks may trade, or have traded, as principal on the basis of the research analyst(s) views and reports. Lyxor has mandatory research policies and procedures that are reasonably designed to (i) ensure that purported facts in research reports are based on reliable information and (ii) to prevent improper selective or tiered dissemination of research reports. In addition, research analysts receive compensation based, in part, on the quality and accuracy of their analysis, client feedback, competitive factors and LIAM’s total revenues including revenues from management fees and investment advisory fees and distribution fees. Please see our investment recommendations disclosure website www.lyxoretf.com/compliance.