At Short-Selling Conference, Hope Springs Eternal

The sentiment that emerged at a financial conference held on Thursday at the New York Athletic Club in Manhattan was unusual for a group of short-sellers: optimism.

At the event — entitled “The Art, Pain and Opportunity of Short Selling” and put on by former hedge fund manager Whitney Tilson’s Kase Learning — manager after manager pitched short ideas, with several making compelling cases as to why the stock prices of their short targets are sure to fall. For all their confidence, making money off short-selling is notoriously easier said than done. (Tilson should know: Heshuttered his hedge fund那Kase Capital Management, after years of underperformance and started Kase Learning earlier this year, which offers investing classes to current and aspiring managers.)

过去几年的短卖家已经敲响了锤击。股票市场的牛市已经推动了第四年，持续低利率正在推出低质量的公司，澎湃的合并和收购活动增加了收购谣言可以推动短期业务价格的风险。

[II深潜：交易是在。现在试图幸存下来。]

但是，会议的一些经理表示信心该周期即将转向。

“This is a great time for short sellers,” said Mark Roberts, founder of the Wall Street Consulting Group, which publishes widely-followed research on short investing ideas. Roberts said that in the last month his portfolio had gained 5.6 percent. “That tells me the environment has really changed.”

Ben Axler of hedge fund firm Spruce Point Capital Management echoed the sentiment.

“投资者在这些市场上处于结构性劣势，”他说。“现在是时候了。费率升高;市场正在搅动更多的波动。“

The conference featured presentations from a slew of managers running the gamut from up-and-comers to high-profile names like David Einhorn, whose talk was off the record. (Einhorn attracted a mob of fans as soon as he descended the stage — in spite of his flagship Greenlight Capital funds 14.9 percent loss through April.)

Several managers offered concrete ideas. Anthony Bozza of Lakewood Capital Management is bearish on Celltrion, a Korean drug-development company with market value of about $30 billion. Bozza pointed out that the chief executive officer and co-founder of the company worked at Daewoo Motor, which went bankrupt in 2000 (Daewoo Group founder Kim Woo Choong went to prison on fraud and embezzlement charges.) Bozza said he believes Celltrion’s revenues are massively overstated.

The press department for Celltrion didn’t immediately reply to an email seeking comment.

Jillian McIntyre的221B首都 - 为Sherlock Holmes的Baker Street地址命名 - 她表示她是短期通讯卫星服务提供商Intelstat，称为“下一个梦塞”，参考最近从破产中出现的太阳能公司。McIntyre以前为Christopher Hohn的TCI基金管理工作。英特尔斯塔特的发言人拒绝发表评论。

如果没有演示，就不会完整的卖空会议特斯拉。标记Spiegel的Stanphyl Capital Partners交付了一个名为“Tesla仍然是零的，参考他2016年11月的第2016年第2016年的演示文稿，称为”Tesla是一个零“，在罗宾汉投资会议上。

“在昨晚的召唤之后，谈论Tesla几乎似乎是多余的，”Spiegel说，在5月2日参考电动车手的第一季度盈利呼吁。在电话中，特斯拉首席执行官Elon Musk解雇了分析师关于现金流量和型号的问题要求“如此干”和“不酷”，在周四交易中派出股票暴跌。下午区周四，它达到约5.6％，达到284美元左右。

Tesla的发言人没有立即回复寻求评论的电子邮件。

特斯拉's meteoric rise since Siegel's Robin Hood presentation — he said the stock was trading in the $180s at the time — perfectly illustrates the perils of short-selling. Those who still want to short, but with a more cautious approach, got advice from an unlikely source: activist short-seller Carson Block, who rose to fame calling Sino Forest a fraud (the company went bankrupt in 2012) and who says he has faced death threats for his work.

块建议涉及长期债券的套利策略，并使用现金流量购买长期的，超出金钱的选项。

“除了向一本长书提供一个好的树篱外，在市场撕裂的一年内，我们会幸运的是这些选项中的一些选择，”他说。“在一年的市场坦克时，这位我们担任市场坦克下行凸起。”

对于那些没有信心的人即将转变，克里斯铁王某的乌鸦研究和高级商务作家的研究牢固地地球普沃斯的克里斯铁尔斯出席了这一想法。讽刺的演讲，题为“缩短整个F ------的事情”，建议在黄金中占据了一个令人留下了绝对过度杠杆的全球金融体系的一种态度。

“基于支出和消费的驾驶政策而不是储蓄和消费 - 不省钱，不押债务，并不得不提高债务天花板 - 对我来说并不是对我有任何意义，”讽刺，在亵渎 -加入介绍频繁的演示文稿从人群中笑了。“政府并不总是知道它在做什么，所以如果你不想让你对政府的盲目信仰，额外接触金是一种缩短制度并提供额外保护的方法。”

Irons presented numerous examples of people with power in the financial system making horribly wrong calls, including then-Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke, who in 2007 declared the subprime crisis was contained. He also cited several Wall Street analysts who upgraded Enron “four minutes before it went bankrupt.”

Irons, who pointed out that central banks are stockpiling gold, suggested that investors shouldn't have gold dominating their portfolios, “just maybe a little bit more than usual.”

至于如何需要很长的黄金位置,熨斗老鼠ed the various options, from owning a gold ETF to outright physical gold, on what he called “my Alex Jones meter,” referring to the infamous conspiracy theorist and “Info Wars” founder. Owning gold as a physical asset is the most “tinfoil hat-crazy” option. And how does he own it? “I'm full on Alex Jones at this point,” Irons said.