A More Bullish Sohn Conference May Not Be Encouraging

	The 22nd Annual Sohn Investment Conference. Left to right: Keith Meister; Debra Fine; Josh Resnick (Photo Credit: Kholood Eid/Bloomberg).

我最喜欢的股票市场之一是股票攀登担忧。当每个人都看好时，为了出口。

So, after sitting through theSohn Investment Conferencethis year, I am a little concerned. Investors seemed mostly upbeat and were eager to trot out their favorite bullish ideas. Of course, that’s what this conference is all about — with the noble goal of raising money to fight pediatric cancer and other childhood diseases.

除了去年，大多数演示者都有看跌或警示。发生什么事？该市场强烈完成。

This time we are now in the ninth year of the bull market — although just four months for the new presidential administration. And just one person expressed some sort of macro fear, and it wasn’t a hedge fund manager. Kevin Warsh, who served on the board of governors of the Federal Reserve System during both the Bush and Obama administrations and is now a lecturer at the Sanford Graduate School of Business, wondered whether the central bank is prepared and has any bullets left to fight the next economic slowdown.

Otherwise, hedge fund luminaries — none of whom incidentally will have qualified for the Rich List this year when it is published shortly — mostly trotted out their favorite long positions. Yes, several hedgies talked up short bets, while one offered a hedge.Jeffrey Gundlachof DoubleLine Capital thinks the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index’s outperformance of emerging markets is over and recommended going long the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets, an exchange-traded fund that bets on emerging markets stocks, and simultaneously shorting SPY, the most popular S&P 500 ETF.

Davide Serra, founder of London-based Algebris Investments, recommended shorting British government paper, while two other investors recommended shorts of specific equities. Otherwise, we mostly heard longs on a day that was filled with interesting ideas.

Here is a sample of a few.

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在市场已经关闭的时候，最令人震惊的短期推荐迟到了Josh Resnick，杰里科资本资产管理的创始人推荐短路前沿通信，注意到电信公司的股票下降50％，但“从这里有100％。”翻译：它正在破产。

He has been short the stock for five years, the longest-standing short in his career. Resnick expects the company, which recently slashed its dividend by 62 percent, to eliminate it altogether. He also thinks that later in the year it will be in breach of the covenants of some loans. He also pointed out that the company gets 32 percent of revenue from traditional phone lines, a dying business. After marshaling additional negative facts and playing videos of unhappy customers, he had many of us convinced.

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Resnick’s presentation was the mirror image of the presentation ofCorvex ManagementKeith Meister. Earlier in the day the activist talked up the shares of another telecom company, CenturyLink. The over-riding reason: It is in the process of acquiring Level 3 Communications for about $34 billion. He asserts consolidation is very profitable in the telecom business, because the bigger company benefits from more traffic and greater scale.

Centurylink也有9.2％的产量，标准普尔500指数中最高，他觉得在交易前他感到不安全，但现在。“3级合并是游戏变化，”梅斯特说。“它保护了股息，”他补充说，其中包括其他因素。Meister确实参考了Frontier的股息削减了，但否则似乎没有戏剧。

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David Einhorn, the sometime-activist whoseGreenlight Capital.一直进而fering this year, in part from short bets against stocks in its famous “bubble basket” — such as Amazon.com and Tesla Motors — as well as his recent disclosed short in Caterpillar, went public with his short on Core Laboratories. He called the stock “way overvalued” and made the case for the stock to drop to $62. It had closed on Friday at $113.43, before dropping 2.4 percent Monday on Einhorn’s presentation.

EinhornSsherss投资者和华尔街的卖方分析师误认为是世俗的增长公司而不是周期性的石油服务公司。“这是在最后一个周期的正确时间的正确位置，但不是这次，”对冲基金经理坚持。他说，该公司不会在页岩业的繁荣中受益。Einhorn还嘲笑公司用于断言它处于V形恢复的中间。

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The most interesting, niche long play was presented by Debra Fine of Fine Capital Partners, conspicuously the only woman to present at the main program, which led to her opening line that she didn’t want to be seen as the “token Jew” at the event. Her comic timing was pretty good.

在任何情况下，她在多伦多交流中交易了一名着名的加拿大公司谈了DHX媒体。该股销售5.50美元，她认为值得越来越多至20美元或以上。公司拥有一些老儿童电视节目和玩具名称，如Teletubbies，Degrassi和Inspector Gadget，以命名为数少。

该公司基本上套利资产，购买他们以前的价值，然后用更好的商品和视频交易将资产货币化。亚慱体育app与成年人不同，良好的压力，孩子们可以一遍又一遍地观看同样的表现。“第一次显示后，儿童内容的价值不会贬值，”她补充道。生产和更全球可转让的产品也更便宜。与此同时，像Netflix和亚马逊这样的新买家正在推动需求。谁知道？