The first full day of the SALT Conference at the Bellagio Hotel in Las Vegas was certainly eventful. It included controversial assertions and predictions, fiery exchanges and even a sprinkling of investment ideas. Before the afternoon sessions got underway, one audience member from an investment firm turned to me and said: “Not many ideas but it sure was exciting this morning.”
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在其中一个高调面板中，欧米茄顾问’ Leon Cooperman承认对冲基金费用需要下来。The founder of New York-based Omega Advisors told the audience that the low returns currently being posted by many hedge fund managers, and expected future returns, don’t justify the current level of fees, which average slightly less than 2 percent of assets under management and slightly less than 20 percent of performance. He pointed out that the industry enjoyed a golden age from 2000 through 2007 when a large number of managers outperformed the markets, resulting in a surge in industry-wide assets. And although the average fund posted an 8 percent loss in 2008, which he said was half the market average, this was followed by a very difficult era. The seven-year bull market caused long-short managers to lag since they did poorly with their shorts. As investors see their funds trail market averages, a growing number are redeeming their money and putting it into passive strategies, he said. “They can’t generate returns to justify their fees,” Cooperman conceded.
The 73-year-old one-time Goldman Sachs partner added that really only two types of managers are performing these days—quants, those algorithmic-driven managers, and people like Warren Buffett, who essentially buy and hold for a lifetime and don’t need to worry about quarterly redemptions. “Hedge funds need to rethink what their business model should be about,” added Paul Brewer, chief executive officer and founding partner of London-based Rubicon Fund Management, who sat on the same panel. Kenneth Tropin, founder of Norwalk, Conneticut-based格雷厄姆资本管理, who runs both discretionary and computer-driven funds, added that investors have become more sophisticated and more demanding. “Every manager has to make the effort to become much more transparent and more communicative,” he said.
与此同时，Cocherman和其他人承认，对于持续期限，持续期限如此之低，经理和投资者可能需要新的性能预期。基于达拉斯的海曼资本管理的首席投资官Kyle Bass建议，在未来20年内，投资者可能需要习惯于每年更接近5％。“所以收费得以下来，”他警告说。
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为2008年金融危机提供了众多因素专家之一是废除萧条时代玻璃静置法案的克林顿管理局的废除，这禁止存款银行在与租赁投资银行相同的屋檐下运作。在那些废弃的中发挥了重要作用的两个人在当天的第一个小组上进行了采访：Robert Rubin and Lawrence Summers，两者都担任Bill Clinton的财政部秘书;后者还担任鲁宾的副秘书。他们是由华盛顿基于华盛顿替代资产巨头的联合创始人和共同行政长官凯尔莱尔集团的联合行政总裁的采访。
为他而言，Rubin认为，除非保险承销除外，玻璃陷阱基本上基本上废除了对银行的限制。“玻璃静止与危机无关，”鲁宾坚持。
“I agree,” said Summers. “There was no transaction of consequence between 1998 and 2008 that would have been illegal before Glass Steagall.” He pointed to the merger between Citigroup and Salomon in 1998, and shotgun mergers during the financial crisis between Bear Stearns and JPMorgan and between Merrill Lynch and Bank of America. If those latter two deals could not have been completed, he argued, there may have been even more dire consequences in 2008.
有趣的是，该对没有被问及他们对规范某些衍生品交易做法的建议的坚定抵制，许多人认为这展示了导致金融危机的作用。
与此同时，夏季试图提出患有兴趣的争议问题及其许多对冲基金管理人员青睐的有利税收。Rubenstein刷掉了他，很有希望稍后回到这个问题。“第一次修正案，第二修正案，然后携带利息，”夏天争吵，巩固了主持人。唉，鲁比提翁从未恢复过这个话题。“对不起，我们在随身携带的情况下运行，”他说，结束了小组。光滑的。
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One of the more controversial presentations involved legendary corporate raider and oil and gas executive T. Boone Pickens, who recently expressed support for presidential candidateDonald Trump。He endorsed the real estate developer’s promise to ban Muslims from coming into the U.S. under certain circumstances. “We need to cut off Muslims coming in ‘til we vet them,” he told the audience, which murmured in response.
Pickens also made a case for the U.S. taking an isolationist approach to the Middle East. He stressed that we only import about 1.2 million barrels of oil per day, down from 7.8 million at the 1970 peak. Pickens said he would remove the Fifth Fleet from the Persian Gulf, which aligns with Trump’s isolationist approach to foreign policy.
他补充说，Pickens的唯一理由保持在中东地区的存在，是保护以色列。
Real estate legend Sam Zell, who appeared on the panel with Pickens, disagreed. “You can’t look at the world through the prism of oil,” he stressed. “If we pulled out, we would have chaos in the world. If you pulled the Fifth Fleet, how long would it take for Iran to take over Saudi Arabia and the Mideast?”
有趣的是，泽尔说，他将在NAFTA国家 - 美国，加拿大，是的，墨西哥的能源联盟。他坚持认为，三人的国家可以集体钻探并产生足够的油，以排除对中间油的需求。
他还考虑了较低的油价可以帮助特朗普说服跨国公司将低工资海外行动送回美国。“廉价能源可以让它回来，”他告诉记者在一个小型新闻界之后收集。“廉价能源可以胜过廉价劳动力。”
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到目前为止，凯恩安德森资本合作伙伴的管理合伙人的Chuck Yates对当天的大胆投资预测。在讨论黄金和石油的小组上，他预测，黄金价格大约为年底大约为1,825美元，从目前的价格约为1270美元。他认为这是对我们目前的债务状况的戏剧。“摩天轮必须因债务而停止，”他告诉观众。“美联储已经炸毁了数亿和万亿的资产负债表。”如果他是对的，一个人会非常开心的人是David Einhorn.of Greenlight Capital, who has maintained a big bet on the metal for some time.
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MB·伯格（MB顾问），宏观研究公司，宏观研究公司，行政组织管理总监和首席投资官员之间的米尔顿·伯格，创始人兼首席执行官兼首席执行官之间发生了其中一种。Berg使得股票市场将在未来30年削弱的情况下，机会从精明的交易中获得1％，2％或3％。他还在思考短期和快速交易员的需要时敲诈，这是过去几十年中最大的交易涨幅的少数例子。
布朗斯坦对这些断言进行了异常。“如果你有一个时间机器，那就太好了，”他抢回了。然后，如果他进行了一项研究并试图编制成功计时交易和不成功的时序交易，那么他就会询问Berg，以了解这一策略是否实际上是有效的。伯格通过指出，只有60％的股票参与给定的牛市。
这里的讽刺:交换发生在拉斯维加斯Vegas casino where gamblers boast about their big wins but rarely tell you about their losses. That was the point Brownstein was trying to make.
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毫不奇怪，中国经常是对话的话题，应该在周四再次。它归结为：很难找到一个中国公牛。发言者因其关注程度或恐惧而异。“这是一个共产党政府，”伯格说。“你想把你的资本主义美元放在共产党政府中？然后投票给伯尼桑德斯。“
奥斯坦Goolsbee，谁领导了奥巴马总统经济顾问委员会，预测中国的银行最终可能需要纾困。但凯尔曼首都凯尔贝斯仍然非常看涨对中国困境的交易。“在学习信贷市场和银行后，大型宏观失衡之一是中国信用体系，”他告诉观众，致电中国“巨大的机会之一。”但是，他没有按下他究竟缺乏什么，以及其他投资者如何发挥其麻烦。然而，拉里·萨默斯告诉观众，如果在未来三年的市场中发生了一些东西，人们记得40年的主要活动，它将在中国。“经济规模具有全球化的影响，”他说。
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盐and pepper: Omaga’s Cooperman said he has 20 percent of his fund’s assets invested in structured credit…He also made the case for First Data, a huge KKR private equity deal, which went public…Ayla Brown kicked off the conference by singing the National Anthem. She is the daughter of former Massachusetts senator Scott Brown, a big Trump supporter and a former美国偶像finalist…Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg said he won’t endorse anyone in the presidential election. But later he noted that the only candidates “who can run the railroad” were John Kasich, Jeb Bush and Hillary Clinton. Hmm. Was that an endorsement?...Former L.A. Lakers great Kobe Bryant was the luncheon speaker. Not one of the more scintillating discussions. Felt like the final two minutes of a blowout game…T. Boone Pickens said the thing he is most proud of is the fact he has given away $1 billion to charity…Summers made the case for removing $100 bills and higher from circulation. He asserted that most people use them to facilitate the drug trade, support money laundering and evade taxes.