Gloom and doom were dominant themes at Wednesday’s annual Sohn Investment Conference at New York’s Lincoln Center on Wednesday, with a few rays of optimism. The Sohn conference is one of those events where attendees shell out big bucks to hear top-shelf hedge fund managers share an investment idea or theme, only to see it tweeted instantly and quickly traded on.
但是，这没关系，因为这一切都是慈善机构，对吧？在这种情况下，它有助于支持Sohn会议基金会，旨在治疗和治愈儿科癌症和其他儿童疾病。该基金会以纪念Ira Sohn命名，这是一个在29岁时死于癌症的墙街道。
First the optimism. The conference produced its usual share of long recommendations. However, the most dazzling and impressive presentation was made by an individual who is not a hedge fund manager—Chamath Palihapitiya, founder and CEO of Social Capital, a Palo Alto, California venture capital firm.
他认为亚马逊在10年内的价值高达3万亿美元。他通过亚马逊Prime推动零售业务的价值1万亿美元来到那里。他相信亚马逊网络服务，公司的云业务，可价值1.5万亿美元。Amazon提供新的IT产品，其余的休息会来。“零售它的所作所为会花费它，”Palihapitiya断言，增加了Bezos“正在建立世界上最耐用的公司”。哇！
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This was not the only bullish presentation.
纽约长期资本首都的创始人和管理合伙人Johour Khoury，使凯悦酒店内在价值有65％的潜在潜力。他断言，高档酒店连锁酒店的估值随着更多的低档公司被占据了一流。他还指出，随着经济和行业相关的各种原因，包括初始化Airbnb的感知威胁，他的住宿行业本身目前在投资者中失控。
And Larry Robbins sounded like he was addressing his disenchanted格伦维夫资本去年的两位数损失和今年第一季度的投资者强调，如果基本面没有改变，那么令人失望的股票一切都很好。然后，他一段时间已经陷入了六次左右的股票。
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否则，幽暗和厄运是最引人注目的主题。
基于洛杉矶的双层首都的邦德·吉尔鲁·杰弗里·戈德拉赫告诉观众，以负面利率战斗通货紧缩就像试图用汽油发火。他感到沮丧，虽然国内生产总值削弱美联储正在提高利率，即使它警告未来几年的增长较低。
His recommendation: sell the utility index and go long mortgage real estate investment trusts. He points out that the former has surged in price while the latter have fallen. “I expect them to converge, he told the audience.
然而，Gundlach似乎最享受他在多年来总统竞选活动中嘲笑的演讲。然后他警告说：“为特朗普总统准备”加入，“特朗普对债务极为舒适。”
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卡森•布洛克(Carson Block,首席投资officer of泥泞的水域资本一份泥泞的水域附属研究，为俄克萨斯州的银行，一点岩石，阿肯色州银行控股公司提供了案例。他认为银行有大量的无资金的下资介绍贷款贷款承诺。街区表示，大约90％的贷款是房地产相关的，危险建筑贷款35％。果然，周三股票扣留了4.4％。
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Zachary Schreiber, one of the founders of New York-based尖头Capital, presented an ominous outlook for Saudi Arabia and its debt. You may recall that two years ago Schreiber, who had worked for Stanley Druckenmiller at Duquesne Capital Management, correctly predicted the oil-price collapse.
这次他推荐投资者短暂的沙特货币，利雅，并抵消了美国美元，墨西哥比索和俄罗斯卢布的长职位。这基本上是全球商品市场的对冲，斯克里·斯克里·塞尔佩德将导致投资者赚到10〜50倍。“沙特阿拉伯的经济不可持续，”他告诉观众，在几年内增加它将“结构上的破产”。
他引用了他的恐怖观点的几个原因。王国的结构甚至可以在90美元的油桶上打破，这是当前价格大致翻倍。它将巨大数量的资金支付给公民和军事支出，在危险的全球社区辩护。像许多其他商品卖家一样，沙特阿拉伯严重依赖于中国的销售，其经济遭到严重或更糟，取决于你相信的人。
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Short-selling specialist James Chanos of New York’sKynikos Associates.—the last speaker of the day—also went with the commodities theme and moved his discussion southwest to sub-Sahara Africa. Earlier in the day, he had made yet another bearish case for China and other investment plays in an interview on CNBC.
At the conference, he focused on two countries heavily depend upon on China to sell their commodities—Nigeria and South Africa. He then laid out a litany of reasons why the two countries are experiencing turmoil and troubles—financially, monetarily and socially.
Chanos then used this discussion to lead into his case for shorting MTN Group, a South Africa-based mobile telecommunications company, which, he said, got 62 percent of its revenue from South Africa and Nigeria. Meanwhile, he said, MTN faces a lot of competition, driving down margins. Most of the rest of its business comes from other shaky countries, such as Uganda, Syria and Sudan, as well as Iran.
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Greenlight Capital’sDavid Einhorn.hedged, predicting boom for what he called the undervalued shares of General Motors—a long-time major holding of the New York hedge fund—and gloom for Caterpillar, which he says is a good short. He says Caterpillar has not bottomed out yet even though many investors perceive it to be at the nadir. He expects the maker of construction and mining equipment and diesel engines to trade at half its current price.
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However, the biggest deliverer of doom was Druckenmiller, who shut down his wildly successful Duquesne Capital Management in 2010. The former trigger man for George Soros, who for the past few years has railed at the Fed’s easing policy, lamented that this stance has not successfully boosted the economy, resulting in subpar growth. “The Fed borrowed from future returns,” he asserted, adding it now has boxed itself into a corner and has no end game.
Druckenmiller, who supported Ohio governor John Kasich’s failed Republican presidential bid, also stressed the country badly needs entitlement and tax reform. He stressed that the current economic and fiscal environment is exactly opposite what it was in the early 1980s, on the eve of the greatest bull market of all time and 25-year or so decline in interest rates.
He then concluded his remarks by declaring: “The conference wants a specific recommendation from me. I guess ‘Get out of the stock market’ isn’t clear enough, adding that gold “remains our largest currency allocation.”
Does that mean bailing even on Amazon?