If the financial markets truly climb that proverbial wall of worry, then attendees of Tuesday’s Delivering Alpha conference in New York must be euphoric by now. There was enough doom and gloom served up to the several hundred guests who packed the Pierre Hotel ballroom to scale even the biggest wall. Seemingly one high-profile speaker after another warned that interest rates remain near their all-time low (causing a bond bubble), a large chunk of sovereigns are yielding 1 percent or less, the global economic growth rate is anemic at best, and thanks to aggressive quantitative easing by central banks, there are precious few tools left in the arsenal to right a sinking ship.
It also didn’t help the depressing mood in the room that compared with the previous five Delivering Alpha events, this year more panels and time were devoted to macro discussions, hedge fund industry issues and peripheral topics, like owning a professional sports team, than to individual investment ideas.
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超过一笔钱管理Luminared Luminare Draw在20世纪30年代的黑暗日子之间，在大萧条和第二次世界大战中的延髓之间。例如，Raymond Dalio，康涅狄格州韦斯特波特的创始人Bridgewater Associates那the world’s largest hedge fund firm, pointed out that the 1929 stock market crash popped a bubble similar to the one in 2008. After the Great Depression, from 1929 to 1932, “You had the monetization, quantitative easing, essentially monetization, producing of money to make up that gap,” he went on. “And you have the reactions after that. Then you bring interest rates down to close to zero.”
基于康涅狄格州的斯塔伍德首都集团格林威治主席和首席执行官Barry Sternlicht，比较了今天的宽松政策和印刷金钱的德国战前的魏玛共和国。
Paul Singer，基于纽约的MultiSrategy公司的创始人艾略特管理公司那which next year will celebrate its fortieth anniversary, concurred. “The global financial system is fragile,” said Singer, who repeated his assertion that the bond markets are way over-priced and are a massive bubble.
“When interest rates stay too low for too long, bad things happen,” agreed Tony Ressler, co-founder, chairman and chief executive officer of Los Angeles-based Ares Management.
Singer also ominously warned that the recent phenomenon of stocks and bonds moving in lockstep — rather than in opposite directions — further portends big troubles in the financial markets. Some of the blame for our current situation was pinned on the Federal Reserve. “I think that the Fed is putting too much emphasis on the business cycle and not enough on the long-term debt cycle,” Dalio told the audience.
And with rates at near historic lows, there is very little the Fed can do to stimulate the economy if we plunge into another recession, Dalio and others lamented. “If you have a downturn and you don’t have the power, we’ve never been in a world together that’s been like this,” Dalio said.
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那么，投资者应该如何为所有这些厄运和阴郁揭开他们的投资组合？嗯，宏观和多际策略Mavens有很少有用的建议。他们大多数人同意最糟糕的地方是歌手称为普通的香草投资。他警告了观众，使用G-7各国发出的债券作为一个安全的避风港“是错的，”称之为“世界上最大的泡沫”。他说有巨大的风险拥有10-，20 - ，30年债券。
He recommended buying gold, stressing it is underrepresented in portfolios. “It is undervalued and underpriced in today’s world,” Singer added. Otherwise his big recommendation for investors’ portfolios: “Removing bad ideas.”
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马克卡尔特，基于纽约的纽约的定量公司的首席投资官员和创始合作伙伴Kepos Capital传统金融资产,也是看跌。He stressed that valuations of equities are near their historic highs, while bond interest rates are at their virtual lows. Carhart told the audience he thinks the expected return of the classic 60-40 asset mix of stocks and bonds is now 2.8 percent per year — after inflation — which is half of what it had been over the long term. He too suggested investors move away from these traditional asset classes.
那么他在市场上看到价值在哪里？Carhart建议延长一些具有高利率的新兴市场货币，如土耳其里拉，巴西真实和印度卢比。与此同时，他建议缩短利率非常低的国家的货币。据推测，他正在将这种策略吹捧到专业人士，而不是在CNBC上观看的主要街道投资者，他们可能没有能够配备该贸易。
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仁慈地，有一个名为“最好的想法”的小组，我们甚至有一部分可行的建议。
有账单米勒，谁主要以共同创立的legg梅森资本管理和管理腿部梅森资本管理价值信托相互基金而闻名。他现在是LMM的创始人，并担任机会股权和收入机会战略主席，首席投资官员和投资组合经理。米勒吹捧了一个贸易，您将长期延长标准差距500股股票指数，并缩短了10年债券，并指出利率有明显，股息产量更高。
至于特定股票，他推荐了有争议的药品制造商缬草Pharmaceuticals International。他承认，不再是一个快速增长的公司，依赖于其产品的不断上涨的价格徒步旅行。“这是一个破坏的卷起，”他解释说，并补充说，其上诉是其巨大的现金流量和销售高达80亿美元资产的可能性。“这是一个缓慢的增长专业制药，产生了大量的现金，”他补充道。
米勒也吹捧了一个长期最爱：Amazon.com，他认为在未来三年内的价格可能会翻倍。他表示，在线零售巨头扩展到Web服务，每年可以将下三到五年增加25％至30％，利润率上升。
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Also on the Best Ideas panel, Robert Bishop, founder of New Canaan, Connecticut-basedImpala Asset Management，谈到了基于温哥华的自然资源巨头的Teck Resources股份。他的股票的案例是，我们处于金属，采矿和油价的拐点，部分通过中国经济的复苏，他在最近与阿尔法采访中阐述了。
“我们在商品周期的第二个局势中，”他告诉观众。“在我谈论的数字上有很多收入的空间。”
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围绕小组，纽约的着名短卖家詹姆斯·詹姆斯kynikos.Associatesmade the case for shorting Tesla Motors. He called its planned $2.6 billion merger with SolarCity Corp. “a “walking insolvency.” He said the synergies are questionable and asserted the company will burn through $1 billion in cash each quarter.