作者:Christopher Fix
亚洲市场变得越来越重要,不仅对亚洲大陆的投资者如此,对世界各地的投资者也是如此。随着全球事件风险的发生,对市场的影响几乎在瞬间回荡在我们这个日益相互联系的世界上,对全天候无缝交易的需求日益成为人们关注的焦点。由于期货是一种引人注目的对冲工具,我们亚洲的交易量继续增长,and more significantly, during Asia trading hours from not just Asia-based but also global participants.
执行力更强
亚太地区的机构交易成本通常高于其他地区,可能对投资者回报产生重大影响。在亚洲,澳大利亚、香港和日本市场的发达市场已经看到了与美国的交易成本趋同,而中国、印度尼西亚、菲律宾和泰国等新兴市场的交易成本仍较高。
The move to sharpen execution efficiency is now being driven by not just performance but also by sweeping changes, such as the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (MiFID) II, the European regulatory initiative to “unbundle” costs of research from fees for trading. With MiFID II in effect since early January, Asian investors are feeling the ripple effects to varying degrees, particularly those that are part of global companies with sizeable operations in Europe.
亚洲贸易成本上升的部分原因是市场的异质性,导致对研究和卖方咨询服务(如企业准入)的需求增加。投资组合经理传统上用佣金“货币”支付。分拆的举措可能会降低交易成本,通过电子交易,可以以较低的佣金率实现价格发现。
事实上,亚洲外汇市场使用电子交易平台的数量已经大幅增加,尽管仍落后于其他较发达地区的同行。目前,电子交易占全球市场的99%CME集团每日期货交易量.
这种长期的增长趋势是由电子化的优势推动的。在利差更紧、成本更低、流动性更深的情况下,能够进入流动性池,使初创对冲基金和散户投资者等较小的参与者能够以非常低的成本进行交易。投资者还可以在此类平台上使用对冲分析和风险管理工具,实时管理和应对越来越多的交易风险。
有价值的对冲工具Despite the higher trading costs in Asia, the advantages of trading futures continue to make it a compelling instrument as it provides valuable hedging tools particularly in periods of uncertainty and volatility.
更多交易
亚洲日益增长的影响力在全球市场seen from the rise in trading volumes from a region which now accounts for 60 percent of the world’s economic growth. For the full year 2017, CME Group’s average daily volume (ADV) from Asia Pacific-based investors was 664,000 contracts, representing a 5 percent year-on-year increase. This was driven by interest rates, foreign exchange and metals products, all of which saw double digit growth. More importantly, we have been seeing swathes of liquidity during Asian trading hours (from 8 a.m. to 8 p.m. Singapore/Hong Kong time), from not just Asian but global participants. The ADV for futures and options traded on CME Group exchanges during this time hit 2.2 million contracts in 2017, with a 3-year compound annual growth rate of 9 percent.
With China, Japan and India being major players in the global financial markets and holding a large proportion of U.S. debt, event risks such as the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike in June 2017 helped propel trading volumes in Asia. At the time of the Fed decision between 13th and 15th of June 2017, trading volume in our interest rate contracts jumped by up to 70 percent.
This growth in trading volume extends a trend seen since early 2017. It also solidifies our view that the Asian trading hours have attained a critical mass with market participants no longer feeling disadvantaged that they are trading outside so-called “standard” trading hours.
事实上,在这些亚洲交易时段进行交易可能是件好事。例如,英国宣布退出欧盟的公投结果时,唯一开放的市场是亚洲。在当天全球创纪录的4400万份合同中,在亚洲时段,有40%或1800万份合同成交,much more than the global average daily trading volume.
最近一次是在2018年2月6日,在道琼斯指数一夜暴跌接近5%之后,我们看到CME集团在亚洲交易时段,甚至在美国市场重新开盘之前,就有约1100万份期货合约在交易。
Geopolitical uncertainty is likely to continue in 2018, with events such as Britain’s Brexit negotiations especially with regards to Irish trade and the border, elections in Italy, Mexico, Brazil and the US Congressional elections, poised to impact markets and investors.
这些,再加上持续的地缘政治风险,可能造成更大的不确定性,期货市场可能有助于减轻其中一些风险。
With the world becoming increasingly inter-connected, global events that take place can have reverberating effects on the other side of the globe and split-second decisions need to be made as events unfold. The ability to trade futures round the clock on CME Group’s platform, such as during Asian hours, enables market participants to react and profit when such events occur outside the U.S. and European time zones. We expect that Asia will continue to grow in its influence on the global derivatives market in the years to come.
克里斯托弗·菲克斯Managing Director, Head of Asia Pacific at CME Group.