最近,一名专家小组聚集在斯科尔德,讨论为什么气候变化是投资者越来越重要的话题。面板包括:
- 安迪霍华德,可持续研究负责人,Schroders
- Jillian Reid,校长,负责任投资,Mercer
- Thomas Fabricius,高级ESG和股票分析师,Danske Bank
- Schroders基金经理Simon Webber
通过Citywire的Angus Foote托管的活动完全重播,可以在这里查看,但这是一个快速摘要。
未来的问题已成为“现在”的问题
安迪霍华德,可持续研究负责人,Schroders:
“气候变化并不是一个新问题;科学是hind it and solutions to it really haven't changed that much over the last 10 years. But what's changing now is that we're beginning to see some of those points start to shift from being potential future questions to things that are really beginning to change.
“Whether it’s the regulation we’ve seen on diesel cars or on carbon pricing, or the dramatically-improved economics of clean energy, we're at a very interesting point for climate change and it’s clear it will be a critical issue going forward.”
避免了4°C的温度升高?
Jillian Reid,校长,负责任投资,Mercer:
“自从我们在Mercer发表我们的报告”在2015年6月投资“报告中发表了我们的报告。
“我们现在在巴黎后协议环境中,现在看起来很可能会避免4摄氏度的上升。我们更有可能停留在3度之下。在我们的原始研究中,我们甚至应该包括2学位方案,而现在有可能的乐观。
“谈话肯定会转移。我几乎从未有过对话是关于你是否相信气候变化了,但我认为仍然有低估了物理风险。“
安迪霍华德,可持续研究负责人,Schroders:
“当你看看所有不同的事情发生时 - 无论是那种清洁能源投资,石油和天然气生产,政客们的陈述,还是碳的价格 - 他们都可以涂漆非常不同的图片。所以我们已经建造了施罗德的气候进步仪表板,试图了解这一非常复杂的情况。“
“通过将所有这些因素放在一个地方,我们得到了世界上朝向的方式。它目前不是一个特别乐观的画面。前景仍然越来越接近四度超过两度,但它开始向下移动到两度标记。
“所以,我们认为我们的仪表板告诉我们还有很长的路要走。我们正在逐步前进。但是,在我们目前看到的变化水平与中断之间存在巨大差距,以及我们需要从化石燃料中有效地重新设计全球经济的水平,该水平当前提供80%的权力,以更加可再生和可持续的经济增长形式。“
所有这一切对活动基金管理人员意味着什么?
Schroders基金经理Simon Webber:
“作为一个积极的投资者,整个问题和地区是非常有趣和强大的,因为市场非常善于同化短期信息,并且在长时间和不连续性方面非常糟糕。
“If we’re going to get to the middle of this century with a 70% to 90% cut in greenhouse gas emissions, it is a complete transformation in the architecture of our energy industry, as well as automotive transportation, agriculture, heavy industry and chemicals and numerous other sectors.
“作为投资者,我们需要考虑这些行业如何变化结构:哪些公司的定位,这不是。
"Some companies will just focus on maximising their short-term profits. They won’t think about investing for five to ten years down the line, whether that’s so they have a license to operate, or whether it’s for technology that their customers are going to want. These short-sighted companies will see their business start to shrink.
“For active managers, there is a wealth of opportunity for us from being part of that solution. In my experience, having run a climate change-focused strategy for 10 years now, I am constantly amazed at how markets, investors, analysts, and company management teams struggle with the scope of the change that is likely coming. Therefore, there is a big role for investors and active managers to support those companies that can help us move in the right direction.”
You can view the full video of Schroders Live by clicking here.