By Phil Moore
过去十年的持久的机构资产拨款之一是投资者新兴股权和债务市场的持续减重。有几个原因解释机构对新兴市场的历史不信任（EM）。
The prevailing perception among institutional investors has been that EM are characterized by high levels of volatility and illiquidity. There has also been a belief that the benefits of strong economic growth in EM may be eroded by the impact of idiosyncratic factors such as political uncertainty, poor governance, high debt, and weak currencies.
其他担忧是EM对美国货币政策蔓延的脆弱性以及中国潜在的放缓，最近曾在可能对保护主义的新兴地区的影响。最近一些EMS的表现表明，这些疑虑中的许多疑虑不会审查。阿克伦·博士，Amerdeen标准投资专家，分为自2016年总统选举自2016年以来的墨西哥比索的表现，作为EM恢复的证据。U.S.利率上升的前景也不是对北美自由贸易厅的威胁，也不是北美贸易局的威胁，也不是墨西哥 - 美国墙的计划建设。边境已阻止比索在过去12个月中成为世界上最好的表演货币。
Aberdeen标准投资的股权投资专家Scott Conlon表示，对保护主义的恐惧已经被夸大了。他补充说，他们被其他可能促进全球增长的经济政策赔偿，因此加强了新兴市场的案例。
A compelling investment case
更广泛地，康本辩称，EM的投资情况是通过引人注目的宏观经济，人口和结构因素来支持。这些中的每一个都应该在发达地区的相对高估值时代审查他们对EM的暴露。在全球较低的全球增长和相对较低的通货膨胀时，这些拉伸估值可能会限制发达市场的潜在风险调整的回报。它们也可能在发达国家维持高地理和资产类相关性。
The macroeconomic drivers of the potential outperformance of EM are persuasive. Emerging economies are expected to grow at an annual rate of between 5% and 7% over the next few years, compared with 2% in developed markets. This will elevate their share of global GDP to 45% by 2020, and to as much as 60% within 15 years, according to the Institute of International Finance (IIF).
Growth in emerging market and developing economies expected to outpace advanced countries
The demographic dividend
Much of this longer-term growth will be underpinned by demographic dynamics arising from the emergence of a young, educated, and aspirant middle class twinned with increasing disposable income levels across many developing regions. This demographic dividend is also leading to a rise in infrastructure investment across the EM universe, which will be another impetus for economic growth and job creation.
At a structural level, meanwhile, investor reservations about illiquidity, restricted free-floats, local institutional demand, and the dominance of a handful of sectors and companies within individual EM should have receded over the last decade. With governments across the EM universe increasingly committed to promoting local capital markets, and with privatizations and IPOs adding to their depth and diversity, the liquidity of these markets has grown dramatically. When the MSCI EM Index was introduced in 1988, its constituents were 10 countries representing less than 1% of the world’s market capitalization. Today, 24 countries are represented in the index, representing about 12% of global market cap.
This weighting is poised to grow as more countries graduate from frontier to EM status, and as some (such as China) reach levels of disclosure and governance required for index inclusion. It will also expand as others (such as Saudi Arabia) open up markets that were previously inaccessible to foreign investors.
EM债务的情况
新兴债务市场的结构演变也应加强对机构投资者狩猎的呼吁，以提高风险调整后的返回和与主流债券市场的低关。亚博赞助欧冠
投资者attracted by the growth potential of developing markets now have several alternative asset classes to choose from in emerging and frontier debt markets, each of which offers different risk-return characteristics and diversification opportunities. The first is hard currency (generally dollar-denominated) issuance from sovereign borrowers. The second is local currency sovereign debt, which is becoming increasingly accessible to overseas investors in economies that were traditionally closed, notably China and India. Local currency sovereign debt is now the largest component of the EM fixed income universe, valued at almost $9 trillion, compared with just under $1 trillion for the hard currency market.
A third option for institutions allocating to EM fixed income is the corporate debt market. This is one of the fastest-growing asset classes in the world, having expanded from about $600 billion in 2006 to $2.2 trillion today, making it larger than the U.S. high yield market.
Relative size of markets ($bn): EM corporates at close to $2 trillion
As Aberdeen Standard Investments’ Bater notes, potential returns across the universe of emerging and frontier market debt should be enticing to institutional investors starved of returns in developed markets. As one example, she points to Ghana, where current yields are around 16%, with interest rates and inflation falling, and where correlations to U.S. Treasuries are negative. As another, she notes Sri Lanka, where a vibrant tourism sector is supporting a strengthening trade balance, and where yields are close to 10%.
Active management is essential
Conlon cautions, however, that in EM equity as well as debt markets, harnessing opportunities such as these calls for extensive bottom-up research. “It is essential to take an active approach to EM investment,” he says. “Our EM team typically looks to own stocks over a horizon of several years. They will only do so when they have met with a company multiple times to ensure they are comfortable with their management, business model, balance sheet and approach to managing business risks. Identifying the highest quality companies and owning them for the long term is a distinguishing characteristic of our EM franchise, and has been the key to successfully delivering performance for our clients over time.”
阿伯丁斯坦dard Investments is a brand of the investment businesses of Aberdeen Asset Management and Standard Life Investments. Unless otherwise indicated, this document refers only to the investment products, teams, processes and opinions of Standard Life Investments as at the date of publication.
所示的信息涉及过去。过去的表现不是未来的指导。投资的价值可以下降，也可以下降。All information, opinions and estimates in this document are those of Standard Life Investments, and constitute our best judgement as of the date indicated and may be superseded by subsequent market events or other reasons. This material is for informational purposes
标准人寿投资有限公司是注册在Scotland (SC123321) at 1 George Street, Edinburgh EH2 2LL. Standard Life Investments Limited is authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority. Standard Life Investments (Hong Kong) Limited is licensed with and regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission in Hong Kong and is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Standard Life Investments Limited. Standard Life Investments Limited (ABN 36 142 665 227) is incorporated in Scotland (No. SC123321) and is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services license under paragraph 911A(2) (l) of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) (the ‘Act’) in respect of the provision of financial services as defined in Schedule A of the relief instrument no.10/0264 dated 9 April 2010 issued to Standard Life Investments Limited by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission. These financial services are provided only to wholesale clients as defined in subsection 761G(7) of the Act. Standard Life Investments Limited is authorized and regulated in the United Kingdom by the Financial Conduct Authority under the laws of the United Kingdom, which differ from Australian laws. Standard Life Investments Limited, a company registered in Ireland (904256) 90 St Stephen’s Green Dublin 2 and is authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority. Standard Life Investments (USA) Limited is registered as an Exempt Market Dealer with the Ontario Securities Commission and as an Investment Adviser with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Standard Life Investments (Corporate Funds) Limited is registered as an Investment Adviser with the US Securities and Exchange Commission.
In the United States, Aberdeen Standard Investments is the marketing name for the following affiliated, registered investment advisers: Aberdeen Asset Management Inc., Aberdeen Asset Managers Ltd., Aberdeen Asset Management Ltd., Aberdeen Asset Management Asia Ltd., Aberdeen Asset Capital Management, LLC, Standard Life Investments (Corporate Funds) Ltd., and Standard Life Investments (USA) Ltd.
Calls may be monitored and/or recorded to protect both you and us and help with our training.
www.aberdeenstandard.com©2018标准生活Aberdeen