2018 was quite possibly one of the toughest for financial markets in half a century, and there’s a lot to look forward to (or worry about) in 2019, so here are Lyxor’s Cross Asset Research team’s views on their five biggest themes, including the future for Europe, emerging markets, and the ageing US cycle. Have a read to clear the holiday cobwebs and wrap your head around the new year.
1.欧洲的差异会加深
European assets are pricing in very little economic growth, but sentiment could easily reverse should political risks recede. Eurozone equities have been trading at around 12.2 x 12-months forward PE – 15% below their 30-year average and around 25% lower than US valuations. Until now though, the catalysts have been catatonic.
然而，对有序的Brexit的进展，罗马破裂的决议，宽松的贸易紧张局势以及增长恢复的迹象可能会促进重新评级。您可能需要采取快速行动 - Q3中的潜在速度升值可以缓解拉力集会的能源，并推动债务成本，欧元更高。
Lyxor.favour stability at this stage, so we’re calling the CAC over the DAX (“gilets jaunes” notwithstanding) although the latter could be in demand should trade tensions fade. Switzerland, once again, may offer a bit of haven. Periphery country balance sheets look weak and more exposed to any softening of growth. Certainty on the Brexit outcome can’t be a bad thing, but sterling will bounce, to the detriment of exporters.
我们将逐步将我们的部门分配转化为后期的公司，特别是那些能够在周期性放缓期间提供强劲收入的人 - 这倾向于在医疗保健，石油和天然气，金融和基础行业中找到。
至于债券?我们将看一个可能change in the Italian government’s stance and a potentially sharp narrowing of BTP-bund spreads. Holding peripheral debt could still make sense, provided you can hold your nerve. Euro bonds will be vulnerable prior to any policy tightening, but the ECB is likely to err on the side of caution and deliver just one, minimal (10bps) hike by September 2019. Oil price recovery and firmer economic momentum should push inflation expectations higher.
- Lyxor.CAC 40 (DR) UCITS ETF - Dist
- Lyxor.STOXX Europe 600 Healthcare UCITS ETF - Acc
- Lyxor.EuroMTS Highest Rated Macro-Weighted Govt Bond (DR) UCITS ETF - Acc
- Lyxor 2-10Y通胀预期欧元UCITS ETF -Acc
2.EM equities should enjoy some respite
After a largely lacklustre 2018, sentiment on the emerging markets should improve in 2019. Trade, as ever, remains the talking point. Any easing of tension – something G20 leaders at least nodded to in Buenos Aires in late November – could support any equity rebound. Don’t, however, wait too long. Tighter liquidity conditions will weigh on returns in the longer term.
Some selectivity won’t go amiss. Take China – escalating trade tensions, a weaker yuan, and deleveraging have all weighed heavily on stocks in recent months. A crackdown on shadow banking – a crucial source of funding for the private sector – also looms large. GDP growth should slow to around 6% over the next 12 months.
虽然不同地看到，但由于国内消费量的增长率为62％，那么抛售可能过度。而且，增长是美国（世界上最大经济体）的两倍，而不是比发达国家的其余部分快三倍。中国政府在2019年保留了大量的弹药。上行潜力是巨大的，因为中国模型转向可持续增长 - 这承担了更坚定的消费，更高的资本资本和更大的财务访问。
在其他地方，对出口和改善国内条件的依赖性较小，从未进行了贸易冲突中绝缘。盈利增长也返回高于长期平均值，有些利润正常化是预期的财务状况。未来五年可能对增长和企业重新利用，这是一个双重推动，可能有助于提高公司对股权比率的回报，最终股价绩效。
3.美国周期的结束即将来临，但衰退没有迫在眉睫的威胁
The US economy finally looks set to slow in 2019 after a buoyant year in 2018. President Trump’s fiscal stimulus has probably done enough to avert the threat of recession until early 2021, but cyclical concerns are likely to become a major market driver in H2. GDP growth may already be on a downward trend by then.
劳动力紧张，工资成本上升，以及将这些成本转向消费者的难度应缩小利润率和讨论的投资和招聘。在一个拉伸估值和更严格的流动性条件的世界中，资本收益有限。
US small caps would clearly be hindered by gridlock on Capitol Hill. They would also suffer should the dollar weaken or the cost of debt rise. We expect broad, larger-cap indices to be more resilient. Growth stocks could struggle however given new tax regimes and regulations.
Indices like the S&P 500 should stay strong in the first part of the year but with the end of the cycle hoving into view, higher downside pressure is inevitable in H2. Risk reducers may well provide some comfort.
- Lyxor.S&P 500 UCITS ETF – Acc
- Lyxor S＆P Banks Ucits ETF - ACC
- Lyxor.FTSE USA Minimum Variance UCITS ETF – Acc
4.H1 will be the time to hedge against higher rates and inflation
We expect to feel the pressures of higher inflation in H1. Trade tariffs, high capacity utilisation rates, and higher labour cost pressures in developed markets will fuel the fire, as will some form of recovery in oil prices. Higher tariffs may push inflation expectations higher right through to the summer. Ultimately, inflation breakevens have room to price more uncertainty in inflation via higher term premia, particularly coming from any spill-over into the setting of domestic prices. Inflation-linked assets should outperform nominal bonds, at least over the first half of the year.
然而，下行风险在H2中更为普遍。通胀预期将容易受到财务状况恶化的影响（特别是更广泛的信贷传播和较弱的股票），特别是在增长放缓的环境中。作为晚期循环资产，商品可以作为对冲抵御较高通胀和美元的下行压力。
- Lyxor.Core US TIPS (DR) UCITS ETF – Dist
- Lyxor.USD 10Y Inflation Expectations UCITS ETF – Acc
- Lyxor.$ Floating Rate Note UCITS ETF – Dist
- Lyxor.Core iBoxx $ Treasuries 1-3Y (DR) UCITS ETF – Dist
5.Global equities will face more volatility, and more downside pressure
The upside in global equities looks limited overall. Most financial assets’ valuations are stretched with the exception of Treasuries, inflation markets and some emerging market assets. Meanwhile, a more concerted central bank push towards monetary policy normalisation will also put a cap on global liquidity just when debt has never been higher. Fiscal policy uncertainty will linger, but may become less stressful once there is clarity from Europe. In the US, the likelihood of another fiscal boost looks much lower now that Trump’s hands have been tied.
We’ll be keeping an eye on growth rates, and trying to exploit and react to the different speeds on display. After several stimulus-fuelled years of plenty, we expect US economic activity to slow in the second part of the year but a modest easing of growth also looks possible Europe with Italy on the verge of recession. The expensive US dollar will eventually weaken against other major currencies should the Fed bring its tightening cycle to an end.
因此，我们希望美国资产在今年的进步时变得更加挥发，最明显在H2中。欧元区股市应受益于经济救济和对意大利政策制定的更好的优势，但对增长和企业盈利的任何担忧都可以提出上行潜力。风险减速剂可能证明有用，而价值可能被证明是抵御率的最佳股权对冲。
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