富兰克林邓普顿的投资专家们花了很多时间和首席投资官谈论“如果。？“也就是说，最有益的讨论来自于探索可能发生的事情的含义——而不是猜测未来——并为这些风险做好准备。
在下面的对话中，富兰克林邓普顿的三位主要参与者——客户投资解决方案负责人Wylie Tollette、多资产研究策略负责人Gene Podkaminer和美国机构界定贡献负责人Drew Carrington——就监管变革的“如果”进行了讨论，包括监管变革如何“像灯一样亮”“切换”和“改变激励”
Gene Podkaminer:让我们先提醒自己我们的观点last discussion of regulations. 与监管冲击不同的是，它改变了rules of the game. None of the other types of shocks –生长,interest rates,inflation, or demographics – do that.
WylieTollette:与漫长蜿蜒的道路相比人口统计学的你可以在一英里外看到，监管更像是一个电灯开关。所有这些关于什么可能发生，什么不可能发生的讨论都可以，但是当政策制定，或者立法通过时，很快就会有一个新的环境来运作。
德鲁·卡林顿：美国的养老金立法仍然是我们最喜欢的话题之一，也是探讨监管后果的好地方。首先，根据行业的不同，监管可能是一件大事。美国养老金行业对监管的变化做出反应，特别是在401（k）领域，以及某种程度上的企业固定收益（DB）领域。在固定缴款方面，在《养老金保护法》通过之前，自动登记等功能就已经存在，但只有在该法通过之后，这些功能才被广泛采用。如果我在2004年说的话，那五年后，大多数计划都会自动将参与者注册到一个你从未听说过的叫做目标日期基金的项目中——你会认为我疯了。很难想象这些将是PPA的后果。
波德卡米纳：慢点，德鲁！我们很高兴有你在这里，这样我们可以深入研究一个应用的例子。我听到你说这是不关于创新。许多新特性以前已经存在了很长一段时间。不同之处在于监管所提供的鼓励和推动。
Carrington:对的。同样，在DB融资方面，在PPA通过之前，关于去风险和负债驱动投资的辩论正在进行。然而，该法案出台后，各公司齐心协力降低了风险。我记得和一个为汽车制造商工作的人谈过，谈到21世纪初，他说：“我们是一个巨大的福利计划，生产汽车。”
波德卡米纳：We are speaking about fit to purpose. Tools existed, but they did not fit until the regulation provided the opening. Regulation flipped the switch.
Carrington:这些法规既提供了免于诉讼的保护，也提供了激励措施。
Tollette:这项规定还涉及到投资问题。例如，对长期公司债券的需求可能使收益率曲线比正常情况下平坦得多。长期需求的持续和非常大的部分原因是养老金监管的变化，人们希望降低DB计划的风险。
Carrington:正如上次提到的，我们看到新的立法支持开放式多雇主计划（MEP）设计，这一点值得思考。
For example, a financial institution, record keeper, asset manager, bank, and trade association could launch a plan and market it to small employers. When financial institutions participate in building and offering a MEP plan, it can reduce the risk of being sued that employers take on currently. That’s a big change.
Tollette:乔的小工具店生产小工具。他们不管理资金，所以管理别人的资金和做错事的风险真的很可怕。但如果一家金融机构正在实施这一计划istheir business. They’re not so afraid of taking on fiduciary risk.
一个不受诉讼恐惧驱使的市场将成为一个竞争更加激烈的市场。这可能就是我们开始看到替代方案进入更多退休计划的原因。金融机构可能会挺身而出，自行承担可管理的诉讼风险，而不是要求公司承担这种风险。
波德卡米纳：所以，一个MEP environment will effectively create a new category of sophisticated buyer, equivalent to large plans. More large plans mean more large players on the financial institution side who may extend to a variety of funds.
Carrington:And we hear plans saying, “This is our lineup. We like active and passive together, and spending our risk and fee budget where it makes the most sense. We’re using asset classes that we might not otherwise make available to participants directly. We’re incorporating them into a diversified portfolio – things like alternatives or illiquids, which we know can produce better returns, as seen in DB plans, endowments, and foundations.”
This will help overcome one of the biggest frustrations for people in the DC business, namely that we have trillions of dollars invested on a long return horizon, yet we run the whole system as if we must be able to liquidate the entire thing tomorrow.
Tollette:这是一个不言而喻的前提。这种结构并不是最佳的，但有一天我们醒来，我们就在那里。听起来，即将出台的立法可能会开辟新的道路。也许我们可以利用更多的技术，解决第一个问题——退休收入。我们怎么得到它？它能持续多久？它采取什么形式？
Carrington:在这项立法中，有影响终生收入和退休计划的条款——具体来说，终身收入安全港、终身收入披露以及允许终身收入产品可移植性的机制。从计划发起人的角度来看，他们所做的选择受到监管层的限制，和if they want to change their mind they aren’t stuck with a solution, as they have been in the past. A sponsor can change its mind about which lifetime income product it uses without waiting for all the participants in the current plan to exit. For example, plan participants may have a lifetime income option, but the sponsor decides it wants to change that option. They can push out the benefits that people have accrued up to that point – people get what they’ve paid for – and then the plan sponsor gets a clean start. That’s really important to plan sponsors.
Tollette:The application of technology could open the door to more customization for individuals and the expansion of tools for them to use at the proper time and place.
波德卡米纳：这就像为个人设计的医疗保健和基因治疗的革命，一种药物可以被设计用来治疗一个人的独特疾病。利用大数据设计或定制个人成果的大门可能是敞开的。
Carrington:确切地。如今，许多计划参与者并不要求退休收入或财务健康解决方案，因为他们不知道有什么可用的。就像汽车里的后视摄像头。没有一个司机打电话给福特或通用说：“你知道我真正需要的是倒车时的相机。”但一旦你有了它，你看到了它，你就会期待它。退休计划中会有很多。例如，个人会看到配偶计划中的特征，然后问：“为什么我没有这些东西？”
在私营部门，与过去相比，年轻雇员换工作相对频繁。他们会接触到更多的计划，对计划中的内容有更高的期望。人们对各种计划功能和服务的需求将不断增加，这些功能和服务目前已可用，但尚未得到广泛应用——金融健康、紧急储蓄账户、退休收入产品、管理账户等等。
Tollette:We’ve been focusing on the U.S. here, but similar light switch moments are possible in other countries around the world. The idea that “capital can support me in retirement” is spreading. No longer does retirement have to mean “I move in with my relatives.” So, lessons learned from more advanced economies matter, and watching pension policies and regulations matters.
波德卡米纳：我们一直在讨论的是一个案例，在这个案例中，监管变化似乎会导致非常积极的结果。也就是说，朝着总回报投资组合的目标发展，而不是害怕诉讼的投资组合，以及为个人量身定制更多结果的可能性。
Tollette:I am glad we didn’t explore an example of a regulatory change with a poor outlook. That would be a difficult conversation and an even more difficult story to read!
怀利、吉恩和德鲁很高兴和你谈谈你的“假设”情景。请随时与他们联系solutions@franklintempleton.com:
Wylie Tollette，首席财务官，注册会计师
Head of Client Investment Solutions
富兰克林邓普顿多资产解决方案
吉恩·波德卡米纳，CFA
多元资产研究策略主管
富兰克林邓普顿多资产解决方案
德鲁·卡林顿，CFA，CAIA
Head of Institutional Defined Contribution
富兰克林邓普顿学院
More in the series "What if there are shocks to ... "
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Disclaimers:
This material is provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice. This material is general in nature and is not directed to any category of investors and should not be regarded as individualized, a recommendation, investment advice or a suggestion to engage in or refrain from any investment-related course of action. All information is current as of the date of this material and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm or the firm as a whole. Franklin Templeton does not accept any responsibility to update any opinions or other information contained in this document. This material may include estimates, outlooks, projections and other “forward-looking statements.” Due to a variety of factors, actual events may differ significantly from those presented.
CFA®和Chartered Financial Analyst®是CFA Institute拥有的商标。
仅限美国居民
本网站仅供美国机构投资者和顾问使用。使用它意味着你同意我们的建议亚博赞助欧冠反腐败政策.
If you would like information on Franklin Templeton’s retail mutual funds, please visitwww.franklintempleton.com.
Franklin Templeton Distributors, Inc.