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4投资新兴市场的策略
Emerging markets may be out of favor, but they are still an important asset class.
新兴市场是投资者的宠儿,最近是2019年冬天,但现在发现自己再次被发现。资产阶级遭受了推文,关税和不确定性的阻碍:MSCI新兴市场指数从2018年1月的峰值下降了19%,而标准普尔500指数在同一时期上涨5%。1交易所交易基金(ETF)流动已遵循套装,仅在八月份从EM股权基金兑换近10亿美元,将YTD累计流靠近平坦。2
但只是因为EMS倒塌并不意味着他们出来。实际上,弹性迹象显示在流动中,最近突破了他们的失败条纹:在9月16日的一周内,7亿美元流入EM股权ETF,主要是在国家特定的资金跟踪中国。3
Still, it is important to maintain some exposure to EMs, which offer access to growing parts of the globe with rising middle classes and potential diversification and growth. Here are four suggestions for investing in emerging markets:
考虑最小的波动策略。关注波动性的投资者可能希望考虑最小的波动性资金,这可能会使EM投资的UPS和下降顺利。考虑近期下降的例子:自2018年1月以来,MSCI新兴市场最低波动指数下降约10%,优势优势较高的MSCI EM指数的19%跌落。4
在国家或地区定制您的EM投资组合。EM景观正在发生变化:沙特阿拉伯,阿根廷和中国的股票已进入指数,但违反它正在得到更多concentrated despite the new entrants. In just five years China’s weight in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index has risen from ~20% to nearly 35% currently and is expected to exceed ~40% at full inclusion of China A shares, according to MSCI as of August 2019.
But while China exposure is growing across portfolios, China risk is rising, growth and earnings expectations are being revised lower, andU.S./China tensions正在升级。MSCI中国指数从峰值距离近四分之一,拖动其余的EM指数下降。随着中国的体重在指数范围内的体重增加,我们将看到em前中国的治疗与发达的前美国的治疗相当。或亚洲前日本。
One potential solution? Consider carving out China as a standalone allocation through an emerging markets ex-China strategy. More generally,投资者可以考虑在他们的国际投资组合中采用一个以国家为中心的方法。集中的风险曝光,跨越的低相关性,高回报分散建议的EMS非常适合这种方法。
考虑广泛的曝光,但管理政治事件风险。投资者may want to consider a differentiated approach for tactical and strategic trading using broad EM exposures, making tactical trades around Federal Reserve meetings or geopolitical events.
看看EM债务作为EM股票组合的潜在补充。债务looks attractive on a spread and yield basis and offers a complementary geographical exposure to the Asia heavy EM equity indexes. With central banks easing globally, investors are likely to look at EM debt in the renewed reach for yield.
本周或明年,EMS是否有利,我们相信大多数投资者应考虑长期拨款到这一重要资产课程。和etfs - 我Shares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (IEMG),Ishares MSCI新兴市场ETF(EEM),iShares MSCI边缘最小新兴市场ETF (EE卷MV),ISHARES MSCI新兴市场前中国ETF(EMXC),和ishares.MSCI China ETF (MCHI)– offer the flexibility to implement that allocation through a range of applications.
1彭博,截至9月25日。涵盖1/26/18/18至9/20/19。
2资料来源:彭博,截至9月25日。
3资料来源:Blackrock的Ishares,4 2019年10月14日投资新兴市场的4个策略Https://www.blackrockblog.com/2019/10/14/investing-in-emerging-markets/
4资料来源:彭博,截至9月25日。涵盖1/26/18/18至9/20/19。
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投资涉及风险,包括校长可能损失。
索引性能仅用于说明目的。索引性能不反映任何管理费,交易成本或费用。索引未管理,一个人无法直接投入索引。过去的性能不保证未来的结果。
专注于特定行业,部门,市场或资产课程的投资的资金可能表现不足或比其他行业,部门,市场或资产课程更能挥发,而不是总体证券市场。
固定收入风险包括利率和信用风险。通常,当利率上升时,债券值的相应下降。信用风险是指债券发行人将无法制定本金和利息的可能性。国际投资涉及风险,包括与外币有关的风险,有限的流动资金,政府监管,由于政治,经济或其他发展而导致的大量波动的可能性。这些风险通常用于投资的新兴/开发市场或浓度的单一国家。
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讨论的策略严格用于说明和教育目的,并非推荐,要约或征求购买或销售任何证券或采用任何投资策略。无法保证所讨论的任何策略都会有效。提出的信息不考虑委员会,税收影响或其他交易成本,这可能会影响特定战略或投资决策的经济后果。
此帖子仅包含一般信息,并未考虑个人的财务情况。该信息不应依赖于投资决策的主要基础。相反,应对各种情况中的信息是否适当,应在投资决策之前与财务顾问进行审议。
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