凯西木仍然认为特斯拉将达到6,800美元。为什么？

我第一次与大脑木头发表谈话，她刚刚在她的40年投资职业生涯中最好的几个月之一。

她被称为“最好的投资者，你从未听说过”在彭博的发光型材中。她在特斯拉的长期定罪 - 一旦电动汽车制造商的股票在三个月的跨度飙升155％后突然被严肃地感到严重。和ARK投资管理 - 2014年推出的资产管理公司 - 正在收获奖励。

“When hedge funds were pummeling Tesla, thinking it was going to go bankrupt in May 2019, we were buying aggressively,” Wood said. That May, the stock was trading around $200. By the time we spoke in late February, Tesla was hovering above $800.

“那是在一年内，”她补充道。“我们得到了比大量风险资本和私募股权公司更好的回报。”

That was February 25. We didn’t know it then, but U.S. stock markets had already started what would turn into a more than 30 percent decline over the next few weeks as the novel coronavirus spread to almost every country in the world, infecting hundreds of thousands of people and shutting down businesses in the U.S. and elsewhere.

当木头和我发言时，Tesla已经开始从2020年的日期达到917美元的份额开始大幅下降。

二十两天后，电动汽车公司的库存下降了55％。

---

“It dropped from近1,000美元到350岁 - 并不是那么狂野吗？“木头说，通过南卡罗来纳州的电话说话，她撤退了等待大流行。这是4月初，方舟首席执行官在跟我说话时正在起搏，在一天大部分时间里都在内心伸展后伸展她的腿。

她和其他方舟队通常在纽约市的现代化办公室运营 - 美国城市最糟糕的冠心病袭击，占该国录得案件的近五。根据木材，ARK团队自3月10日以来一直在循环工作，举行他们通常的团队会议，而不是亲自举行视频聊天。亚慱体育app对于她的部分，木头说，她在康涅狄格州离开了她的房子，所以她的女儿住在布鲁克林，可以和她的朋友一起留在那里。

“They were living near an enclave with a big coronavirus outbreak,” she says. “I wanted them to come out to Connecticut, but we thought my daughter might’ve had [the virus]. So I let her and her friends take over my house, and I went to South Carolina.”

在那里，木头说她大部分时间与她的团队及其客户一起沟通。（“过度通信，”她描述为“。）与大多数国家练习社会偏差，客户沟通主要在线进行，以社交媒体帖子，视频会议，白皮书等的形式。亚慱体育appARK最近在一个直播的流程中举行了计划，木材已经开始在公司呼叫的实时视频系列中提供周末的市场更新亚慱体育app留在家里和大猫木.

“我们在这一时期向我们的客户提供了更多的研究内容，而不是我们曾经拥有的世界，”Wood说。“我们希望确保我们的客户尽可能多地了解关于发生的事情。”

这是一项灾难战略，在2008年金融危机期间，由木材担任投资组合经理的经验。

At the time, she was serving as chief investment officer of AllianceBernstein’s thematic research strategies. “On the second week after Lehman went under, traders weren’t picking up the phone; portfolio managers didn’t want to give interviews,” Wood says. “I was out there talking — and I believe that it helped asset retention.”

这一信念在方舟中承担，该公司的积极管理资金套件在三月整个三月继续吸引新的客户资金，而股票处于自由落体。“除了一两天之外，我们每天都看到净流量，”木头说。

柜的交易所交易基金(etf),例如,净inflows of $511.4 million for the month, according to chief operating officer Tom Staudt. For context, the firm’s flagship ARK Innovation ETF — which in March attracted $408 million in net inflows — had $1.86 billion in net assets at the end of December.

初步数字表明这些积极流动将继续到4月。出于这场危机，方舟少数民族利益攸关方的主席兼首席执行官的危机，议长官方投资经理，令人满意的是，方舟将继续吸引新投资者。

“There’s been net inflows so far in April, net inflows for the year, net inflows for the last year,” he says. “I don’t see any reason why that wouldn’t accelerate.”

That’s not to say fundraising hasn’t been impacted by the coronavirus pandemic. Back in February, Wood told me that ARK — with its retail-investor-oriented ETFs — was “starting to do a full-court press” on institutional clients. At the time, she said ARK had about $1 billion in institutional accounts, including “a large state employee retirement system that gave us $200 million in March of 2016, when we only had $40 million.” That investor — which public pension documents identify as the State of Michigan Retirement Systems — had $483 million invested with ARK as of the end of December.

(A spokesperson for the state pension system declined to comment for this story, adding that “this isn’t meant to be an indication of non-support for ARK as a manager — we are just simply too busy managing the portfolio assets during this difficult time.”)

Originally, Wood was scheduled to meet with potential institutional clients this spring, including some investors in Asia. Those trips were, unsurprisingly, canceled.

随着社会疏散实践，预计将于4月底留在美国，在4月底，机构的经理选拔进程周围有很大的不确定性，该机构通常要求与投资组合管理人员的局部会议，作为其尽职调查的一部分。Andrew McCollum在Greenwich Associates咨询公司咨询公司咨询公司，表示，在经理招聘中可能会有“暂停”，因为许多机构投资者推迟或扩展搜索流程。亚博赞助欧冠

“For a small asset manager, or any manager for that matter, it’s going to be difficult to continue the growth pattern in the near term, as there just won’t be that much money in motion,” he says.

不过，麦考罗姆说，他在此期间通过现有经理搜查后面已经看到了一些机构投资者。亚博赞助欧冠方舟，其部分已找到成功，并求追求主权财富基金。“我们现在正在与他们的快速轨道上，”木头说。“他们一直在看我们的策略 - 我认为如果我们认为我们所说的那样，我们希望看到我们的危机。我们有。“

At ARK, that means sticking to the firm’s core investment philosophy: identifying and investing in “disruptive innovation” in the public markets — especially now, when companies are under pressure. As Wood argued in a March blog post on ARK’s website, “Innovation gains traction during tumultuous times.”

“During the worst financial crisis of our lifetimes, innovation gained more traction than most investors had anticipated,” she wrote. “Companies offering faster, cheaper, more cost-effective, and creative products/services gained significant share.”

在3月的冠状病毒升降之后，燃料卖出，木材加载了她和她的团队认为的公司股票将从以往任何时候都更好地出现这种危机。该公司的旗舰基金现在更集中进入这些最高定罪的股票，包括一家帮助学院和大学提供在线课程的技术公司，以及Zillow集团，这是一个提供虚拟家庭旅游的在线房地产市场。

“These are companies that are solutions to the problems we’re having now, and [trading] algorithms took those stocks and tore them apart,” Wood says. “We bought into them aggressively, and they’re all big winners in recent days.” 2U, when we spoke on April 6, was up 59 percent from its March low of $12.51 a share. Zillow was up 55 percent.

But the short-term results matter little to Wood, who — true to form — thinks the biggest gains are still to come.

---

“Everybody purports为了展望未来，但也许他们正在寻找下一季度，“坚定的首席执行官针说。“凯莉望着五年及以后。”

它是木材的重点，将未来首先吸引着方舟的针。他回忆起，他第一次访问曼哈顿的方舟办事处，当时答案 - 随着美国烽火顾问的重新开始，他们正在寻求在另一家资产管理公司进行第一次投资。这是一个炎热的夏日，在中城，一个初创公司，勇士店有一个没有工作空调的小办公室。

“All I remember being told was that this was an ETF company,” Needles says. “So I go to this meeting, and I’m perspiring at the table, and Cathie Wood starts to talk about her vision. And I have this ‘aha’ moment: This is not an ETF company. This is an investment company.”

根据针头的说法，是由针头脱颖而出的部分是其研究部门的结构。花时间在20世纪80年代担任股权分析师的木材，据说传统的股权研究模式将是研究新兴趋势等机器人和区块链的影响的无效方式。

“She went about setting up her research differently than anybody else,” Needles says. “She created this ecosystem to capture these disruptive trends across sectors, across industries, rather than pigeon-hole an analyst into a specific industry sector.”

An analyst focused solely on the gaming industry, for instance, may have had modest expectations for a company like Nvidia Corp., which revolutionized PC gaming with its graphics processing units. “A gaming analyst would say, ‘All right, that’s great, but there’s only so much demand for gaming consoles worldwide,’” Needles says.

事实证明，还可以利用用于改善计算机图形学的技术NVIDIA，使芯片能够用于人工智能和机器学习过程 - 可用于自主驾驶的芯片。“游戏分析师不会捕获，”针补充说。“他们不会看到这个申请。”

The other thing ARK did differently, as Wood explains, was to make its research free and easy to access. “I was always frustrated that there was a sense of secrecy in research,” she says. “I do not believe that domain expertise resides with any one firm.”

So at ARK, research is distributed far and wide, pushed out onto the social media platforms that many traditional stock analysts are banned from using. “Medium, Telegram — any social media network our analysts think will help them engage with our audience,” Wood says. “I hired an attorney who had been at the SEC for four years, when they were evolving the guidelines for social media — that’s a very important competitive advantage we have.”

In the last year, ARK has even started making its valuation models public on a platform called GitHub, where users can adjust ARK’s projections for companies like Tesla based on their own expectations for variables such as demand for electric vehicles.

在2月,Wood compared ARK’s method of research distribution to the advent of open-source software, which offers up its source code for anyone to inspect or modify.

“We’re the first sharing-economy company in the asset management space when it comes to research,” she said.

According to Wood, ARK’s most important venue for sharing research is Twitter. This is, perhaps, not a surprise when one remembers that ARK’s largest stock position is in Tesla.

---

Elon Musk,the electric-car manufacturer’s co-founder and CEO, is famously on Twitter — to the displeasure of the Securities and Exchange Commission, which has repeatedly tried to limit Musk’s use of the social networking platform. The infamous August 2018 tweet that first caught the regulator’s attention (“Am considering taking Tesla private at $420. Funding secured.”) also brought attention to ARK.

While short sellers and analysts scoffed at Tesla’s ability to find a buyer willing to pay that kind of premium for the company — Tesla’s stock having opened at less than $344 a share on the morning of Musk’s tweet — ARK was forming a very different argument against the hypothetical take-private deal.

In August 2018, ARK’s analysts were projecting that Tesla’s stock value could reach as high as $4,000 per share by 2023 — nearly ten times the $420 price tag Musk had touted. In a public letter addressed to Musk and Tesla’s board, Wood argued that taking the company private at that share price “would undervalue it greatly, depriving many investors of the opportunity to participate in its success.”

Recounting the story in February, Wood said the decision to write the letter was borne out of the frustration of having just watched two of ARK’s portfolio companies — Juno Therapeutics and Kite Pharma — get taken private at prices that Wood and her team considered bargains.

“Our five-year targets for those companies were around $100 billion,” the ARK chief said. “We felt like we left $90 billion on the table. We thought, ‘We are not going to lose another one of our companies like that.’”

So on August 22, ARK published the letter, which Woodshared on Twitter在她的个人手柄下。她的推特立即被批评淹没 - 包括一些评论太粗鲁来重复。即使是越礼貌的Twitter用户也深入对方舟的预测持怀疑态度，有人认为“2019年比特币的200k美元的价格目标更为感觉。”一个自称的特斯拉熊只是用笑的猫咪emoji回应。

“What was gratifying about that is Elon did tell us that the letter did have an influence,” Wood says. “Was it the deciding factor? I can’t tell you. But it was nice to be heard.”

Tesla remained public, and Wood earned a reputation as the company’s biggest bull, proselytizing about the profit potentials of autonomous vehicles with cheap manufacturing costs.

“如果你看看我的Twitter手柄，你可能会看到任何时候我对Tesla说的任何时候我都会得到很少的支持和很多愤怒，”伍德在2月份说。“没关系 - 我不介意它。我甚至不读它。但如果我们是对的，那么所有这些都是坏手和嘲笑我们的研究的人都将不得不进行双重。“

At the beginning of 2020, when Tesla was speeding toward a four-figure stock price, ARK started seeing “a lot of double-takes,” Wood added. On January 31, ARK published a report with its updated projections for the electric-car company’s share value. This time, Wood’s team was predicting that Tesla would reach $7,000 per share by 2024 — and that wasn’t even their bull-case scenario.

“We’ve gotten much less reaction now than we did the first time around, when we put out $4,000 with that letter,” Wood said in February. “And the reason is that the stock price has more than quadrupled. If there’s one thing that investors respect, it’s the market — and the market is saying we’re right about something.”

Then March happened.

然而，即使特斯拉的股票从2月高度下降，ARK仍然非常看涨。该公司在经济衰退中的新预测和特斯拉的工厂封闭的新预测 - 是2024年股价为6,800美元。

The reason for this optimism, according to Wood, is the ARK team’s belief that Tesla will introduce an “Uber-like” service with real drivers before it launches its autonomous car service.

“That would be so much more profitable than their base business, and it will enable them to collect so much more data, with people spending a lot more time driving in their cars,” Wood says. “That means their artificial intelligence engines are going to become more accurate more quickly, and we think it will accelerate the timeline for autonomous — regulators permitting.”

当木头和她的同事在社交媒体上分享他们时，对这些新预测的反应是持怀疑态度。对冲基金经理Jim Chanos - 一个Tesla捷卖方，他们在Pseudony @Wallstcynic下在Twitter上运行 - 回复Ark分析师Tasha Keeney's鸣叫with only a hashtag: “#facepalm.。“

But at the time of publishing, Tesla’s stock was trading at $710 per share — close to where it was in early February.

“我一直对分析师说，无论我一直是一个投资组合经理，真相都赢了，”伍德说。“如果我们是对的，我们将被奖励。”